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Two games on Sky for League One tips this week
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Wrexham at 10/111.91 look good for HT/FT
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Alan Dudman has midweek 4/15.00 and 7/18.00 trebles
League One
Leg 1: Bolton Wanderers v Oxford United, Tuesday 20:00, live on Sky Sports: Back BTTS
EFL fans have the luxury of three televised games this week and Bolton start the ball rolling on Tuesday in League One, and they should justify their short price against Oxford.
Oxford have won just once in their last five and don't appear the force they were under the over-rated Liam Manning. Bolton themselves are hardly in rip-roaring form, but they have won 12 at home this term. However, one win in five leads me to avoid their odds-on price for Tuesday.
I prefer BTTS here, as Oxford are flying on that front, and backers of the BTTS with the Us would have netted 10 times from their last 11. Bolton are also eight from 10 for the same bet.
KEY OPTA STAT: Oxford United have won two of their last 14 league meetings with Bolton Wanderers (D5 L7), though one of those wins came in this fixture last season, winning 3-1 under Karl Robinson.
Leg 2: Lincoln City v Cambridge United, Tuesday 19:45: Back Lincoln
I had egg on my face, and still do from the weekend having gone with Barnsley at odds-on only to get thumped by Lincoln 1-5 at home. Some strange results can often pop up in this division, and not many would have chalked in the Imps to get five.
Being guilty of overlooking Lincoln's upsurge in form was a mistake, clearly, and they are now unbeaten since the middle of January.
The Imps have kept five clean sheets in their last six home league games (W3 D3), including one in each of their last three. Not since April 2005 (run of 5) have the Imps recorded more successive home shutouts in the Football League, so the win to nil bets or covering the handicap are well worth a shot.
KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge United have won just two of their last 16 away league games (D4 L10), losing both of their last two on their travels.
Leg 3: Peterborough v Stevenage, Wednesday 20:00, live on Sky Sports: Back Peterborough 90 mins
We've had no such worries backing this season and they delivered again for a win single on Saturday with a 1-3 win at Burton - their fifth win on the spin.
Posh have rediscovered their touch in front of goal too with 11 in their last four games.
Indeed, Darren Ferguson's side are the only team to have scored in 100% of their home games in League One this season. The Posh have scored 41 goals in 17 home league fixtures this season (2.4 per game), and have scored 2+ goals in 13 of their last 14 on home soil.
This is a massive game for both and Stevenage are amazingly still in contention for the play-offs, but they are struggling for goals at the moment and have netted just twice in their last five games.
KEY OPTA STAT: Stevenage have only won one of their seven Football League games played on a Wednesday (D2 L4); it's their lowest win rate on any day of the week they have played 3+ times on in the EFL (14%).
League Two
Leg 1: Grimsby Town v MK Dons, Tuesday 19:45: Back MK Dons
MK Dons have lost three of their last five away league games (W2), failing to score in each of those defeats and look in good shape for another against a shocking Grimsby team.
Grimsby have lost eight at home and conceded a whopping 37 at Blundell Park although they have recently tightened things up at the back with four successive Under 2.5 Goals games - with three draws and a win.
The hosts have won just one of their last seven home league games (D1 L5), though that sole victory did come in their last outing at Blundell in a 1-0 win over Forest Green Rovers. Before that clean sheet, the Mariners had conceded 23 goals across their prior six such winless matches. We can oppose them here with the Dons in fourth and just five points off the leaders.
KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons have won two of their three away Football League games versus Grimsby Town (L1), last winning at Blundell Park in March 2008 under Paul Ince, a season in which they were crowned League Two champions.
Leg 2: Wrexham v Harrogate Town, Tuesday 19:45: Back Wrexham HT/FT
With a massive 13 wins at home and 48 goals scored, I am keeping it simple with Wrexham to win the HT/FT bet at nearly even money for Tuesday.
Wrexham have won ten of their last 11 home league games (L1), scoring 28 goals in the process whilst keeping three clean sheets across their last four outings at the Racecourse Ground, and that's imperious form to take to the table.
After winning seven of a run of nine away league games between September and January, Harrogate Town have since failed to win any of their last four such matches (D3 L1), conceding 11 goals in that time, and while they have perfectly acceptable on the road for a mid-table team, I like the 10/111.91 here for the hosts.
Wrexham's home xG of 2.05 is also one of the best in the league.
KEY OPTA STAT: Harrogate Town have won both of their last two away league games in Wales, beating Newport County both times, most recently in October this season (2-1).
Leg 3: Crewe v Sutton United, Tuesday 19:45: Back Crewe
Crewe let the column down at the weekend when falling 2-0 at Doncaster, and the fact they've lost their two most recent games has influenced their price for Tuesday.
At 4/51.80, that's too big for a side still in the promotion hunt, and the Alex have lost just four of their last 25 home league games (W16 D5), though each of their last three such defeats have seen them concede exactly three goals.
Sutton United have won just two of their last 24 away league games (D7 L15), conceding 3+ goals in ten separate matches during this run.
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