Mansfield Town v Port Vale
League Two playoff final
Saturday May 28 16:00
There are no football gods. Northampton had the rug of promotion pulled from under their feet on the final day (Bristol Rovers winning 7-0 to overhaul a five goal swing needed). Then the Cobblers lost their playoff semi-final to Mansfield. For the final, we're left with two teams who ended the season in patchy form, but who defied a Supercomputer (which apparently predicted just one of the four semi-final outcomes correctly) to be at Wembley.
What do bare bone statistics mean for the season's final conundrum? Opta point to the tightest of margins that might decide the tie: Port Vale and Mansfield have both scored the same number of goals during the season (67), both having 18 different scorers (excluding own goals). If this seems the definition of a level playing field, the Valiants were more efficient with their shot conversion rate, returning the division's highest percentage, from 513 shots, whereas the Stags had 595 attempts.
The odds reflect the tightness of the match, too. Both teams are available to back at 2.915/8 to win while the draw is short, for a draw, at 3.211/5. Mansfield seem to be edging out in price, very slightly. Opta highlight that four of the past seven meetings between this pair have been draws. Might Port Vale have the edge having drawn with but also beaten the Stags this season? Or might their clutch of former Mansfield players give them that extra incentive, the needle to win?
For me, there are two crucial human factors that give Port Vale a slight edge. The players seemed to have vowed to "do it for Darrell", with their boss Mr Clarke making a staggered return after a family bereavement. He's also one of a clutch of former Mansfield connections, having played more games for the Stags than for any other team.
Furthermore, defender Mal Benning left the Stags after six year last summer, when keeper Aidan Stone was also released by Nigel Clough, somewhat surprisingly according to some. Harry Charsley arrived from Field Mill more recently, in January. It sounds like there are scores to settle.
But wait. What's this? On Thursday, Clarke signed a new five-year deal. How often is good news like that a forerunner of bad in the next match? We'll see.
Victory will come down to which side can hold their nerve. As ever. But both sides have had topsy turvy seasons. Port Vale won eight times in an unbeaten run of nine from February, before seemingly stumbling over the line to fifth place after losing three games going into the final weekend. Meanwhile, Mansfield achieved a club record 11 straight wins last autumn to kickstart their campaign from near relegation status. In the second half of the season, too, just three points split the sides.
They finished the campaign a point apart, having scored at an average of just under 1.5 per game. Their games featured a total of 230 goals, dividing nicely into a precise 2.5 per game.
Interestingly, over the 46-game season, Mansfield had 14 clean sheets and Port Vale 15. Every team, says Port Vale's James Gibbons, needs a Nathan Smith, who has played 44 games at the back: unselfish, dependable, does the ugly stuff. Elliott Hewitt, playing 42 games, is evidently that player for Mansfield. James Perch could have been, had he not fractured his skull in September. He might well return for this match.
Both have their work cut out keeping opponents fully at bay here, however. Surely the teams will look to attack and the pattern should follow the first two legs of the playoffs, which ended with over 2.5 goals, something that is very backable at 2.56/4.
Is James Wilson a false favourite at 7.613/2 for first goalscorer? He scored in the two playoff semi-finals, plus the win at Exeter which secured their fifth place finish on the final day. While he has netted 11 times in League Two and the playoffs, Port Vale team-mates Jamie Proctor (7.613/2) and midfielder Ben Garrity (10.09/1) both have 12 league goals.
Proctor, who has recently returned from injury, didn't make the 18 players in the squad for the semi-final second leg. Therefore, he seems short at the price when Kian Harratt (9.617/2), on loan from Huddersfield, has started several games recently. Indeed, Harratt netted twice - after Wilson - against Mansfield in mid-March at home.
Garrity's contribution seems to have tailed off towards the end of the season, but can striker Wilson do what he has never done before in his career and score in four games in a row?
What of Mansfield? It's worth thinking about Rhys Oates, their top scorer with nine, at 8.88/1. However, his colleagues James Bowery (2), Matt Longstaff (3) and Stephen McLaughlin (3) have all outscored him in the final nine games of the season. While Bowery is 8.88/1, the other two are 10.519/2 and 19.018/1. That gives us too many options for the puzzle, bringing us back to in-form Wilson.
Longstaff, on loan from Huddersfield since January, has six and would surely have reached double figures for a full season, which makes him backable at 5.39/2 in the to score market, to net at any time.
Naturally, with the teams so well matched by the layers, 1-1 is shortest at 7.06/1 in the correct score and a goalless draw not much bigger. Either side to win 1-0 is about 9.08/1 and pick any score with either side to win and you'll be offered about the same price.
However, there's no point defending and not attacking at all in a final. In many League Two weekends, several games have waited ages for goals. We could be waiting until after half-time for them, which makes draw/Port Vale appeal at 7.87/1 in the half-time/full-time market.