League Two Tips: Shrimps and U's to find goals

Lack of pressure should give Adams' boys freedom

Morecambe 1.75/7 v Bradford 6.611/2; the draw 4.03/1

Morecambe just won't go away, will they? That's the view from former Bolton midfielder Keith Andrews this week. He worries whether the Shrimps, who sit fourth in League Two, can pinch automatic promotion from Bolton, who he says have a "tricky" away match at Crawley (which they do).

Derek Adams has defied all expectations with his Lancashire squad, tipped by some to exit the division at the other end - not just this year but in the past few. Now, they could convert a guaranteed play-off place into a top three spot.

Cole Stockton, Carlos Mendes Gomes (injured for last week's win at Walsall) and even defender Yann Songo'o have all peaked in front of goal as Morecambe have put together four wins in six games (and six wins and a draw in 10) to maintain strong momentum. Meanwhile the Bantams have a single point from six games as a strong rally turned sour at the end of the season.

Those statistics alone leave us the predictable problem that Morecambe are well below evens to win - and I never like to tip teams odds-on.

Opta might seem to reign in the enthusiasm for Morecambe by pointing out they have failed to win on the final day for the past five years. But they are a different team now - one used to winning. Bradford have not won on the final day in the past four years.

So what are the options, as Morecambe try to achieve a first ever promotion to League One? Over 2.5 goals tempts at 2.26/5. Morecambe, second in the six-game form table, have rattled in 13 and conceded six (partly thanks to a 4-3 humdinger against free-scoring and conceding Oldham). Bradford have scored just two but conceded eight.

Adams will hope Gomes and influential creator Aaron Wildig can return for a match in which they have two bites of the cherry but little pressure, having set the club's highest ever points tally. Of course they would love to jump into third place, or even second if Cambridge and Bolton both lose, but the pressure is on the two much more fancied teams above them.

Bradford bosses Mark Trueman and Conor Sellars can't be happy with the past few weeks. And 14 out-of-contract players know they must impress, including 33-year-old Lee Novak, who believes he is worth a new deal. It's clear they missed him after he suffered an injury in January. He talks of "spoiling the party" at Morecambe. His Bradford average is close to a goal every two games, so he is due a few, as is Andy Cook, who is on eight, but I think the hosts should have too much desire.

Orient could dampen high-drawing Salford's spirits

Salford City 1.664/6 v Leyton Orient 6.05/1; the draw 4.216/5

All the top nine teams in League Two - that is, all those with something riding on their games - are odds-on to win, as none face each other. I know someone who will be laying all nine.

Laying the favourites is the way to play this fixture, because Salford have not quite been good enough over the season. Boss Gary Bowyer might have been left frustrated by the referee in the 1-0 defeat at Colchester for not giving his side a late penalty and for giving yellow cards for incidents he did not even think were fouls.

The upshot is that two players are suspended for this crunch game, defender Di'Shon Bernard and midfielder Ashley Hunter. Yes, the Ammies have earned four clean sheets in five matches, for which keeper Vaclav Hladky deserves much credit. But they have barely scored themselves - five in three of the past six, to earn their three wins which at least gave them a shot at reaching the top seven.

They also have a League Two high of 11 home draws, however, which has ultimately thwarted their ambitions. Having said that, they also have a very healthy home goal difference of +18, so when they get it right, they really fire.

Can you feel the tension from recent low-scoring matches? Ian Henderson would love to add to his 17 goals. However Jobi McAnuff, the Leyton Orient manager, is in no mood to "help anyone reach the play-offs" having moulded the O's into a side who looked like they could achieve that ambition themselves in recent weeks. Attacking football was key.

In the dying embers of the attempt to reach the top seven, the O's have gone for the jugular, attacking hard and scoring nine times in the past five games but conceding 11. Dan Kemp and Conor Wilkinson have been bright sparks in front of goal since McAnuff took the reins at the end of February.

Opta state that Orient have only lost on the final day once in their past eight Football League seasons, while these teams drew 1-1 on the only previous occasion they have met at Moor Lane, last season. Something similar could happen as McAnuff refuses to let the O's own play-off disappointment get them down.

U's and their top scorer still have title chance

Cambridge United 1.564/7 v Grimsby 8.07/1; the draw 4.57/2

As calm as he looked - and sounded afterwards - Mark Bonner must have been fuming as his Cambridge side lost 5-4 at Harrogate, especially after they came back from 3-0 down to a drawing position of 4-4.

But what a kamikaze way to try to secure promotion! That was the second match running in which they could have done so. Third time lucky against Grimsby? This match also gives Paul Mullin, nominated for League Two player of the month (and top scorer), and his team-mates to win the title, such has been Cheltenham's also indifferent form.

It seems astonishing that Cambridge lost their last home game to Stevenage, a mid-table side with nothing to gain, or that they had such a bad day against Exeter in their previous game at the Abbey, losing 4-1. They would love Harrogate to do them a favour now, with a positive result at title rivals Cheltenham. The Robins, two points ahead with a slightly inferior goal difference, are 1.42/5 in the League Two winner market, with Cambridge 3.613/5. So that could tempt anyone who thinks Cheltenham might be pegged back to a draw at home. It could be a market worth trading in-play on Saturday!

The U's have seemed in form in some ways, with experienced Wes Hoolahan and Joe Ironside contributing goals. There's no value in tipping them to win at 1.548/15. So we'll trust that they can, at last, finish the season in style with another blitz of goals and combine the win with over 2.5 goals on Sportsbook at 7-5.

At least 13 players are out of contract at Grimsby, who must regroup in the National League under new owners. Paul Hurst seems up for that fight. Recruiting a striker will be a priority. Lenell John-Lewis, recruited in January, is top scorer with four in his 19 games, in his second spell at the club. Cambridge should have too much firepower on this occasion, for their visitors.

Back Stevenage in a happy mental place

Scunthorpe 4.216/5 v Stevenage 2.1411/10; the draw 3.412/5

Even Stevenage, who have nothing to play for in the final game, are quite a short price to land only a second win in seven matches. But Alex Revell's side have done enough to enjoy a final fling of the season with no pressure, having hoisted themselves from the relegation fight early on in 2021.

Arguably, they should have won a fun 3-3 encounter at Crawley last weekend, but allowed their hosts to come back twice, having taken the lead twice in the final quarter. Luke Norris felt his two strikes (taking his tally to seven since signing in January) were no compensation for not winning as defensive mistakes proved costly.

A lack of intensity, noted by the manager, won't be allowed by players seeking new contracts. Elliot Osborne and Elliott List both had early chances blocked, too. Whether Scunthorpe can contain Saturday's visitors is in question.

The Iron have not scored in four games, suddenly throwing in not one but three goalless draws in their final nine games and only scoring in two of those. At the other end, when they concede, they let in at least two goals - 16 in their past six is the most in League Two in that period.

Boss Neil Cox can't be impressed, but was at least relieved to earn League Two safety with a goalless draw against Bradford. Finishing chances - or creating the final ball - however, remained his biggest criticism as the Iron had openings as Bradford tried to open the game up. If the dead ball routine that so nearly produced a goal for Alfie Beestin comes off this week, Stevenage might have to work harder for a win. But I feel the visitors are in a stronger, happier place mentally to force a victory, perhaps looking forward to next season and building on a positive second half of this campaign.