League Two Tips: Salford to be held to a draw

Crawley's away goals record can earn a point

Salford 2.111/10 v Crawley 3.711/4; the draw 3.814/5

Two things from recent weeks occur. Firstly, what I said about Leyton Orient boss Kenny Jackett insisting that his side could raise their game to past levels and make a push for the play-offs. "Give us a sign!".

The same I say now to Gary Bowyer, when he insists his side can make the play-offs. Of course they can. They have been inching closer.

Secondly, patterns. Salford City's results continue to follow that of winning every other game. And they won last weekend at Orient. So it seems likely that Crawley take take a draw or even win. The Ammies have won back to back games just once this season. Even at home, they have only one consecutive games twice. They are hard to break down on their own turf, however, only losing three.

However, six draws accompanying six wins gives any visitor thoughts they can earn something - and John Yems' side seem to relish away matches more than home ones.

They have taken some famous and unexpected scalps on their travels this season and have scored in 13 consecutive away games, which means Brandon Thomas-Asante and co are likely to have to score twice to win.

They are capable of that of course, but firstly, in their past six games, they have either scored twice or not at all and, secondly, from 15 home games, spectators have witnessed 29 goals (17 goals for and 12 against) which is very close to one apiece per team. Guess what the most common result in League Two is at 12.85%? You've guessed it.

The hosts - pre-season favourites as usual - have made a number of signings in January which should boost their promotion hopes. Millwall's Matt Smith, 32, offers huge experience and power up front.

Crawley made their own signings in order to try to replace injured Kwesi Appiah, who started the season so well for them. Ashley Nadesan now have been displaced as Aramide Oteh makes an impression up front alongside Alex Nichols. I feel one of them will keep up the Reds' excellent scoring record away and secure a point.

Rovers to put on Gas for goals at Boro

Stevenage 2.6213/8; v Bristol Rovers 2.26/5; the draw 3.39/4

It's hard not to see draws everywhere after another spate of them last weekend - six. I think seven in one round of fixtures is the highest number I can remember. Here, it's a case of much-improved Stevenage taking on equally much-improved Rovers. I rather think however that the visitors' headstart in an upturn in their fortunes and possibly quality can win the day.

There's probably still half a chance that the Gasheads could make the play-offs, whereas Stevenage, three places below them, have played four games more.
Joey Barton's men, it's true, don't have the greatest away record (Opta emphasise they have not won in six, conceding at least once in each match) and have drawn six away. However it is games such as this they must win to have any chance of bridging a 10-point gap to the top seven.

Over 10 games, they lie fourth, with 18 points with probably their toughest assignments in which they have earned points coming with draws against Swindon, Mansfield and Sutton (They lost to Port Vale and Forest Green in that spell, too).

Like a lot of teams, when they are good, they can be really good. In their case they also score late frequently, Leon Clarke, Aaron Collins and Anthony Evans among those who have secured late points.

Paul Tisdale has helped lift Stevenage out of the relegation mire to mid-table respectability. Exactly as previous boss Alex Revell did. After four games in which they failed to score they notched 14 goals in seven games, Luke Norris and Jake Taylor leading the way. However, that has turned back into three blanks in the past four games, against tough to break down sides Tranmere, Bradford and Barrow.

Opta add that Luke Norris has been involved in four of Stevenage's past seven goals, as many as for their previous 23 goals. I am prepared to try over 2.5 goals, believing both sides will score, at 2.35/4.

Pools can add to Sutton's woes

Hartlepool 2.89/5 v Sutton United 2.915/8; the draw 3.39/4

I'm sure Sutton United are fed up with being called the "surprise package", but it's a label they can expect when they are riding in the top five in February of their first ever EFL season.

Matt Gray must still be beaming inside at his side's continued excellence, even if they have slipped out of the top three. He'll be doing everything he can to motivate them back into the automatic promotion spots when they travel to Hartlepool, having beaten them at Gander Green Lane in September.

The U's - a bit like near-neighbours Crawley - have scored in a string of consecutive away matches (10) without necessarily winning.

But that certainly gives them every chance of a positive result, as does scoring twice in each of their last four away games. What's more, before Tuesday's defeat at Bristol Rovers they had not lost in 10 games overall, picking up 17 points which would put them fifth over that period alone.

David Ajiboye hadn't scored in a while before netting at Carlisle on the last away trip (his first goal of the calendar year). Isaac Olaofe has been scoring more frequently, while Rob Milsom and Richie Bennett have been chipping in.

The big question is, are Hartlepool now back on a proper League Two roll after their FA Cup exit? Wins over Barrow, Crawley and Tranmere in midweek indicate so. Omar Bogle, recruited in January from Doncaster, has started with a bang having scored in successive games.

Graeme Lee's side look like they can add to their strong home record (eight wins and four draws), to inflict rare back to back defeats on the visitors, whom Opta say are on their worst run in the EFL, four straight defeats, matching the same number in August. They might suffer here before coming back to form.

Late scorers Exeter can win with clean sheet

Exeter 1.748/11 v Barrow 5.59/2; the draw 4.131/10

Regular readers will know that I avoid tipping teams to win who are odds on. So I'll have to get creative. It is fair enough that Exeter are well under evens, having won six times in an eight-game unbeaten run and facing a side who have scored just four times (and let in eight) in six games.

Why don't I like tipping odds-on? Partly it is simply because I find that teams often don't win. Of course, much of the time they do, but I want winners that are over evens. However there's much to like about Matt Taylor's side, who have found another purple patch to add to their 15-game unbeaten run in the autumn. In the sense that included seven draws, this run is even better.

They have climbed into the top three with a sensational comeback from 3-1 down at home to Harrogate on Tuesday. There is some sense that they are due a slight fall after a rise. However, Harrogate have always been capable of finding goals.

This is Exeter's chance to show what they are really made of now. Can they kick on and secure that promotion which has eluded them in the play-offs more times than they care to remember in recent years?

Exeter had six clean sheets from their previous seven games. They had - until Tuesday - only conceded 11 times at St James' Park, with three teams conceding fewer at home: Forest Green, Tranmere and Northampton 10 apiece. The three teams that happened to be above them. Tuesday's 4-3 win seems like an anomaly in that sense, as well as being a rare time they have scored more than twice.

So I'm looking at this as a chance to back Exeter to win to nil, not expecting them to score big again immediately. The layers helpfully disagree, pricing "yes" at 2.915/8 and "no" at about 1.548/15.

Loan striker Kieran Phillips could return to bolster the attack, after Sam Nombe had to play the full 90 minutes when Taylor didn't want him to as he returns from injury. But never fear, Tim Dieng is here! A third goal in six games did very nicely, thank you!

Taylor will be keen to avoid a repeat of going 3-1 down, or behind at all. But even if they don't score quickly and have to grind down the visitors, Barrow will be very wary about the hosts' ability to score late. Jack Sparkes curled the winner on 90+5 minutes and in recent weeks Dieng and Cheick Diabete (twice) have netted past the 85th minute.

Barrow, whose appeal against Aaron Amadi-Holloway's red card last weekend has been rejected, will also be without their manager, Mark Cooper. He has an eight-game ban for allegedly making gender-based abusive comments in the goalless draw with Exeter in August.

John Rooney has made his mark with a goal since signing in January but the Bluebirds, who sit fifth from bottom, are not big scorers. They might have won at Northampton and drawn against Tranmere through an Ollie Banks penalty, but I don't expect them to win - and I will take the risk that they will not score either.

Opta say that Barrow are winless in three at Exeter, while Taylor has yet to beat the Bluebirds in three games - the highest number against any opponent. I think that statistic will change.