League Two Tips: Perfect chance for Cambridge win

Cambridge must show promotion desire

Cambridge 2.26/5 v Walsall 3.929/10; the draw 3.55/2

Mark Bonner believes Cambridge deserve huge credit for grinding out results in January and February to reach top spot. Neil Cox, boss of Scunthorpe who beat them 1-0 on Tuesday, believes the U's are the best side he has faced this season, saying they dominated possession.

It's one thing to do that against a 4-5-1 formation but another matter to break them down. Cambridge had 17 shots (five on target) and Scunthorpe two (one on target).

Top scorer Paul Mullin and Joe Ironside both went close before the visitors scored, but surely Bonner has to be worried about his side's relative slide since going top on January 19?

January and February, he says, might be a "grind". But few league leaders would have the luxury of maintaining top spot for seven weeks by winning four, drawing two and losing three, taking 14 points from a maximum 27, even if they did return five clean sheets.

Cambridge are 14th in the six-game form table and seventh over 10, in the most compact league table of the EFL - a fact born of topsy-turvy form among most leading contenders.

Inwardly, surely Bonner will be desperate for three points at the Abbey (where in their past three games they have taken just one point and haven't even scored) against a team without a win in six. Walsall have just three draws to show in that time, with Brian Dutton yet to taste victory having taken over when Darrell Clarke walked out for Port Vale.

Coalan Lavery has at least scored twice, in the first and third minutes of Dutton's first two matches, but until Tuesday's draw at Exeter (featuring only their fourth clean sheet of the season) the Saddlers had conceded each match. That was a ninth away draw of the season, but I expect the hosts to have renewed urgency after slipping to second spot.

Morecambe have the form to defy big odds

Morecambe 3.02/1 v Carlisle 2.77/4; the draw 3.55/2

If anyone connected to the Morecambe camp was allowed to bet - which they are not - they would surely feel insulted by being cast as large-priced outsiders at 3.02/1 to beat Carlisle at home.

A 13th goal of the season for Jon Mellish - the best tally in a season for a Carlisle central midfielder for 27 years - was scant consolation as the Cumbrians lost to Colchester (who won for the first time in 15 games) on Tuesday. Chris Beech's men have just one point from six games (Colchester are little better, with five). That puts Carlisle out on their own at the bottom of the six-game form table.

They have at least scored in five of those six, but they have now slipped into the bottom half of the table, having poked their noses at top spot just a couple of months ago, when Beech's improvement of the team from relegation candidates when he took over a year previously was being celebrated.

Joshua Kayode has "excelled" at No 9, Beech insists, while Lewis Alessandra waits patiently on the bench to return after Covid, which understandably appears to have impacted his fine form at the end of last year. More worrying for the manager is a three-game trend of scoring first but then losing.

Their away record is below average, while Morecambe at home have won eight, drawn four and lost only three, scoring 22 and conceding 17.

Meanwhile, Morecambe remain in touching distance of the top three after back-to-back home wins, against Salford City and Crawley Town. Derek Adams was delighted with the latter in particular - probably one of their best displays of the season he said. Adams had praise for Cole Stockton, who gets "better and better", although he might have expected the striker to have scored more than five goals this season. Carlos Mendes Gomes took his tally to 11 while Jordan Slew is again back in the manager-induced headlines with a fine performance.

The Shrimps might not be the most consistent team, either, with 10 points over six games. And they might have conceded in each of their past eight. But even if Carlisle do score - particularly first - it seems that their opponents might outdo them.

Molesely's men can make most of Latics' loose home form

Oldham 2.1411/10 v Southend 4.131/10; the draw 3.412/5

Talking of big odds, there's a possibility that Southend might reward backers at 4.131/10 to win at Oldham. If it seems a leap of faith, there are plenty of possible reasons above the Shrimpers' results pattern of LDWLDW!

Mark Molesely's side have two wins and a goalless draw in their past four away. Tom Clifford managed to gain a sufficient foothold to score the only goal at Newport at the start of last month (the defender is top scorer with three goals). After drawing at Cambridge a few days later, Southend inflicted a magnificent 3-1 defeat 10 days ago on Forest Green, with Kyle Taylor pulling the strings in midfield on an excellent surface.

They should have some confidence, then, even with a poor away record overall of three wins and five draws - and a -15 goal difference. However, they are a much-changed side from the start of the season and will espy Oldham's lack of proficiency at home as a chance for more points. The Latics have won just four times, and suffered a League Two topping 11 home defeats, conceding a divisional high 29 goals.

They do seem to score goals though and play open football. That suits many opponents and might suit Southend's Tim Deing and Nathan Ferguson again, who scored at Forest Green.

Molesely made six changes for Tuesday's defeat at Cheltenham, believing he needed to freshen up the team to keep energy levels up. Two were enforced changes, including Gateshead loanee James Montgomery in goal because Alex Bass lasted one game on loan from Portsmouth before suffering a fractured foot.

Experienced Ricky Holmes and Greg Halford made starts. The manager says he has "plenty of ammunition" behind the team, ready to step in if injuries persist. One includes Jay Simpson, formerly of Leyton Orient, the latest player - like Holmes, Halford and the now injured Nile Ranger - to be training with the squad in the hope of finding a way back into football.

Dieng may be particularly inspired against his former club (he was with Oldham from 2014-16) as was Taylor against his former Forest Green team-mates.

But Southend will have to watch the prolific Conor McAleny who has 12 league goals and the dazzling distance strikes by Dylan Bahamboula. Harry Kewell can't be pleased that his side have not had a clean sheet in 10 games, while failing to score in three of their past seven games. Goals do remain a bit of a problem for the visitors: they have failed to score in an astonishing 17 matches from 32 this season, including four blanks in the past six.

Only four times have they scored more than once. However, they have also claimed three clean sheets in the past six - at Newport and Cambridge and at home to Salford. Oldham are not in the class of those three, so if the Blues can score but once they might take another crucial win.

In-form duo likely to battle out a draw

Bradford 2.727/4 v Bolton 2.962/1; the draw 3.412/5

It would take a brave man - or a stupid one? - to call the result of a game between the two of League Two's most in-form sides, wouldn't it? So here goes, partly because of a lack of decent other options in a tight division.

Ian Evatt's Bolton have six straight wins to take to Bradford, who have five in a row and one defeat to make up the six-game form - and in fact that's one loss in the 14 games under Mark Trueman and Conor Sellars. Their five straight wins have been achieved without injured but prized midfielder Danny Pritchard, who is out for the rest of the season.

Both teams have scored 10 goals in their past six matches. Over 10 games, they can barely be split, with seven wins, two draws (23 points) and 15 goals apiece. Only Tranmere outdo both with 25 points.

Bradford are undefeated in their last six at Valley Parade, collecting 16 points, while Bolton have just 11 points from their past six away matches, two draws and a defeat presumably leading to layers making the Bantams slighter favourites for Saturday.

Neither team are giving much away at the back, with Bradford notching five clean sheets in 10 games while the Trotters have kept five clean sheets in six games. Bradford average very close to two goals per game up front in the past eight, thanks to the fine form of Andy Cook (three goals in four) and Danny Rowe, who has netted three since singing in January. The visitors have netted 13 in eight games, with Declan John making his mark on loan from Swansea with a couple and Eoin Doyle taking his season's tally to 13 with four in eight games.

He'll be eager to show the Bantams that they made a mistake letting him go to Swindon last season, at first on loan. He said this week he failed at Bradford because they played him as a target man and he didn't like heading the ball! This could be a full throttle encounter, with the sides cancelling themselves out with a draw.