League Two Tips: Newport to share point with Grecians

Grecians can afford no let up

Newport 2.68/5 v Exeter 3.211/5; the draw 3.613/5

In the land of draws, finding the right opportunity for a point is king. Exeter are on one of their long runs of success, with one defeat in 16 games. Propelled into second with a metronomic run of WDWWDW, Exeter have produced a pattern worth ignoring to an extent, if the hint that the next game could result in another victory. There are good reasons to think this could be a draw.

The first one is that Matt Taylor's men have eight away from home and a record against the in-form sides away, recently, that suggests they could win, but more likely will draw. See games at Port Vale and Bristol Rovers.

The Grecians have a game in hand on some of their rivals (although not leaders Forest Green). Many of them - not just their supporters - will be desperate to turn the heartache of repeated play-off final defeats of recent years into automatic promotion. How much depends on injured players returning? Sam Nombe, who scored frequently eventually in the autumn, and several others are on the sidelines, but they have kept climbing.

Tim Dieng was only needed as a late substitute, much to Taylor's relief, in the win over Exeter when Sam Stubbs scored twice. Matt Jay remains key in midfield to keeping them going near the top. They have had a midweek off to refresh after a relentless March, playing seven times.

Newport are very capable of keeping their visitors in check.They have every incentive to win. Three points behind third in fifth, they need to keep up to have a chance of automatic promotion. Teams from 10th upwards still fancy their chances of going up automatically.

While they couldn't break Bradford's defences last weekend, they have scored plenty recently. Before losing at home to Hartlepool, 3-2, they were unbeaten in seven games - winning four. Opta add that they might have lost that last home game but they haven't lost two in a row at home since November 2019.

In their past nine games they have scored 16 goals and conceded 11 so there could be goals at both ends. Striker Dom Telford is probably getting a bit desperate to add to his 24 goals. James Waite would love to score another after netting on his full debut a few weeks ago. Finn Azaz and Courtney Baker-Richardson will be keen to reach double figures. Take the draw.

Both teams to score in basement battle

Stevenage 2.01/1 v Oldham 4.67/2; the draw 3.613/5

Opta state that Stevenage are winless in 10 and didn't score in six of them, while Oldham are winless in three trips to Broadhall Way and have only won once in 14 away games. What could possibly happen?

Could Stevenage earn a long-awaited victory? A first one under Steve Evans? They desperately need one now that Oldham have lifted themselves out of the relegation zone and put Stevenage there. They are creeping towards odds-on, resting at even money to win. Which leaves me tinkering on the brink of looking for alternative ways to bet on this game. Both teams to score would seem a slightly better alternative, at 2.111/10. Oldham do have a habit of scroring, doing so 11 times in their past 13 games.

Evans felt hard done by at Exeter. Boro had their chances, he felt. Luke Norris managed one goal - his ninth of the season, while Elliott List could do with a goal to add to his eight. Meanwhile Chris Lines chipped in at Northampton in Paul Tisdale's final game.

The new manager has had time to work with his side now they have recovered from covid. Oldham will have been examined intensely by Stevenage's new management team especially as they had a midweek game. They have to stop the rot at the back having conceded twice or more in their past six games.

Oldham, meanwhile, took a rare victory of their own on Tuesday after six straight defeats. John Sheridan's initial rescue act on his homecoming has not continued enough to rescue the Latics from a relegation battle.

Will Sutton gives a spark of hope with two goals in the past five games. Davis Keillor-Dunn has top scored with 12 but victories have been hard fought.

Tuesday's home win over Leyton Orient came through an own goal and a very late Callum Whelan strike - his first of the season. They are only above Stevenage on goal difference. Expect a battle. Evans always says that graft beats skill and he will demand everything is left on the field from his new charges.

Weighing up the absences favours Swindon

Rochdale 2.89/5 v Swindon 2.77/4; the draw 3.613/5

Supercomputers eh? The only one I trust is that which defied the answer the world, the universe and everything as 42. And that was fictional. Might not even have been, technically speaking, a computer. Anyway, apparently the latest number crunching about who will finish where in League Two has Swindon clinching the final play-off spot for seventh. As Paul Caddis, their former captain, rightly says, the Robins' squad won't be settling for that.

Even with inspirational winger Harry McKirdy injured they will be confident that they can bridge a five-point gap to automatic promotion in third, partly courtesy of their game in hand. They will be going for the win at Rochdale, certainly. Midfielder Jonny Williams, once of Crystal Palace under Ben Garner, with whom he has been reunited at the County Ground, made the list of a football magazine's top 50 EFL players this week. Intriguing, McKirdy didn't despite scoring 18 goals in all competitions and being the outlet for so much more.

Town have had a weekend off to lick their wounds after a bracing 3-1 defeat at Crawley, who seem to save their best for the bigger challenges.

In Ben Gladwin, Jack Payne and Tyreece Simpson, the visitors to Spotland have the goals in the bag this season and attacking strengths to add to their 10 away wins. But while that is a League Two high they also lost their penultimate away trip, to surging Exeter.

Can they continue to replicate their successes on their travels against the only team in the division with double figures for home draws (10 again)? That gives them 16 overall, equal top with Leyton Orient. Opta seem to kybosh the draw chances though, stating that none of Swindon's past 11 EFL matches have finished level.

Rochdale also succumbed to Crawley's charms, a week ago, suffering a fifth defeat in a winless seven games. They failed to score in five of those matches. Then they won against Carlisle on Tuesday in a moment that shouts "what's that about?".

Goals by Liam Kelly and Conor Grant finally brought Robbie Stockdale relief. But I don't like to take midweek games into account if it interrupts a formline, good or bad.

There's no point doing it for one game, though, said the manager afterwards. Players have to fight and scrap and do the basics right every time. They are down on numbers, he insists, for the weekend. A young team played more conservatively and he would have liked more control in the second half.

One win, Stockdale adds, does not make up for the previous few results. Paul Downing, at the back, missed out through injury. Luke Charman sounds like a doubt. The hosts might have just enough absentees to give Swindon the edge as the visitors drive to make the most of their promotion hopes.

Every hint of a draw at Walsall

Walsall 2.56/4 v Leyton Orient 3.55/2; the draw 3.412/5

Having been odds on at home, when winless in several games, to beat another team on a poor run, a few months ago, Leyton Orient now look quite a big price to win away at Walsall.

However, the more I look into this fixture the more it falls into the League Two draw category. Afterall, draws are still running at 30% (most common score in the division being 1-1) when expectations for any league is that they match the Premier League rate of one in four matches.

As mentioned, Orient top the draws list with 16 - 11 of them away with three of them coming in their past eight matches. Having drawn three matches in a row away - at Colchester, Hartlepool (in their first fame for Richie Wellens) and Forest Green, they went on to win at Harrogate but lost at Oldham, on Tuesday.

Ruel Sotiriou, who scored in four consecutive matches before Tuesday, Harry Smith and Paul Smyth can be forgiven for being a little leggy after Leyton Orient's mammoth March of eight games

Drawing twice in sixth games when paired with Walsall's three in six is quite a hint especially when both sides have been beaten just once in sixth games - and five times between them in their respective last 10 matches.

Micky Flynn, the Saddlers' manager, has inspired the hosts to score in all but one of his nine league games in charge. They only have two clean sheets in that time and the visitors three over the same period.

A caveat has to be that Walsall have won their past four games at home. As Opta point out, that was as many wins as in their previous 17 at the Banks' Stadium, and they haven't won more in a row there since March 2017, a run of six.

Conor Wilkinson scoring in the past three on his way to 10 for the season. George Miller has 11, too. The visitors, in Smith (12) and Aaron Drinnan (12) have enough firepower to keep up.