Premier League Tips

Can Jody Morris start his managerial career at Swindon with a win? He certainly is aiming big - promising to deliver promotion by the shortest route possible. The Robins didn't wait for their new manager to sign players, bringing in Liverpool midfielder Jake Cain and Charlie Austin ahead of Joe Tomlinson, who made 10 appearances for them on loan before, last season.

A defender, Burton's Frazer Blake-Tracy, should help shore up a defence which has conceded in four of the past five games. They have a checkered away record. In the past six away games, they have won three, lost two and drawn one. They can win big, as proven against Grimsby (5-0) and Mansfield (5-2). But Luke Jephcott (5) and Jacob Wakeling (5) need to score more regularly.

Midfielder Jonny Williams remains top scorer (8) despite spending time away at the World Cup with Wales, to where he now returns to face Newport, who have not played in a couple of weeks.

Will Graham Coughlan's hosts be fresher or stale? Omar Bogle will need to fire on all cylinders to beat the Swindon defence, and the Exiles need lifting. They have not won in six games, drawing four, last enduring a longer winless run in January 2021. Maybe Manchester United loanee Charlie McNeil can inject some teenage speed up front, but I feel that the visitors should be able to win. Opta say three of the last four Swindon managers - caretaker or permanent - have won their first game. That'll do me.

Home form key to a Sutton draw

Sutton 3.412/5 v Stevenage 2.56/4; the draw 3.39/4

It is no wonder that Stevenage have risen to favourites in the League Two winners market, with some impressive performances not just in the division but the FA Cup. Steve Evans knows he can't win the cup so won't mind too much about losing to Stoke City last Sunday, as long as Boro pick up where they left off in the league.

Still second, leaders Leyton Orient are looking vulnerable, giving Jordan Roberts and Jamie Reid every incentive to try to take advantage. Defender Carl Piergianni might fancy another goal, too, after surely not getting forward as much as usual during the cup clash against much higher ranked opponents.

While Evans and assistant Paul Raynor won't stand for any lapse in standards or attitude, can Sutton bring them down to earth after their cup exploits? Aaron Pierre (off to AFC Wimbledon) won't be much missed as he has only made three appearances this season, while Matt Gray has recruited several new attacking faces in recent weeks.

The most important is probably David Ajiboye, on loan from Peterborough, who had previously displayed wizardry on the wing and goals for the U's for three years. He has slotted back in comfortably, nabbing the only goal to defeat Harrogate.

The hosts haven't hit the heights of their first season in the EFL and need a few points yet to ensure they stay there. After three away games on the trot, returning to Gander Green Lane will be a relief - especially as they have won four in a row there.

If Stevenage feel any sort of fatigue from their FA Cup exploits, this could end up a draw just like the game after they defeated Stoke (a 1-1 result at Harrogate). Afterall, Stevenage have taken just 33% of their points away, point out Opta. Only Evans' former club Crawley have a lower ratio (24%) and they haven't won away at all.

Simpson's all smiles with flying Cumbrians

Carlisle 1.664/6 v Harrogate 6.05/1; the draw 4.3100/30

Finally! A team showing a semblance of consistency at the top of the form table. Carlisle have won their last four games, six out of seven in fact. That must be some sort of points record over any six or seven game spell in League Two this season.

On Tuesday Carlisle realised Paul Simpson's dream of winning four wins in a row. He admitted at the weekend he found himself feeling "jealous" at Manchester United's recent 10 wins! That seems a way off but four in a row was last achieved by the Cumbrians last February. Five in row four years ago in January 2019, say Opta.

As regular readers will know, I am not about to back a side at odds on. John-Kymani Gordon, a revelation on loan from Crystal Palace with two goals in four games, will just have to up the ante alongside Kristian Dennis to get my bet. Because between them and Harrogate they need to find over 3.5 goals at 3.55/2. Carlisle look capable, having notched five on their own against Barrow in midweek. Hopefully this game won't be a case of After the Lord Mayor's show.

It is a distinctly possible scenario, despite Carlisle keeping clean sheets in four of their past six games. They also struck three against Crewe and Hartlepool, some of the division's most porous defences, and face another side who concede frequently in the Sulphurites.

Visiting boss Simon Weaver will hope new recruits Tom Eastman (Colchester, loan) and Matthew Foulds (Bradford, loan) and other defensive additions will shore up some trouble at the back, but they couldn't stop Sutton scoring on Saturday.

Harrogate have kept one clean sheet in their past 17 League Two games. Two in 22 point out Opta, after three in their first four games.

In their last seven matches they have let in 12 and struck 12. Whether or not Luke Armstong (10) or Alex Pattison (7) can add to their tallies, it seems there is every chance of goals at the other end.

A Bet Builder of Carlisle to win and over 3.5 goals pays 4.6 on Sportsbook

4.6

Gillingham can rise above their rivals

Gillingham 2.111/10 v Crawley 4.47/2; the draw 3.613/5

It's funny how football brings about little stories that could result in revenge. Just a few weeks ago, Crawley sidelined Tom Nichols because of "significant interest" from another club turning his head, only for the owner to then say that the club let the striker go, to Gillingham, because they already had someone "short" up front - last season's League Two top scorer Dom Telford.

Naturally, as famous people do these days, Nichols poked fun at the comment on Instagram, after scoring his first goal for Gillingham. "No height restrictions in this side" he remarked. Now he faces his old one, who have improved since their second manager of the season departed, but by how much?

Will progress in one game under Scott Lindsey (who was grateful for a 26-day hiatus between matches so he could work with his players comprehensively) make Crawley in any way capable of stretching Gillingham's practically entirely new team?

Just like Chelsea this January, the Priestfield club have recruited big. Well, not height wise, obviously. Or with the same fees.

Tim Dieng (Exeter) has already found his scoring feet (like Nichols who has netted in three straight games). Oli Hawkins (Mansfield) might not be far behind. Keeper Glenn Morris will, like Nichols, be out to make a big impression on his former side having turned his loan permanent.

Gillingham had Swindon by the short and curlies last Saturday but led a 3-1 lead slip for a draw. In the circumstances, the Sussex side might dream of a draw, especially as they are the only EFL side not to win away yet (Opta). Especially as Gillingham won their previous two games 2-0. Expect Matt Harris' men to move out of the relegation zone with three points. A rash of further signings for both sides on Tuesday could make things even more interesting, but the hosts have great momentum.