League Two Tips: Exiles can find home comforts again

Experience to count for Newport

Newport County 2.1411/10 v Leyton Orient 4.03/1; the draw 3.55/2
1pm kick-off

Running out on a lovely pitch at Cardiff's stadium clearly worked for Newport in their last "home" match, when they beat Bradford. The temporary switch could be decisive to reignite their push for a top three automatic promotion slot.

The Exiles would really live up to their nomadic nickname if they could repeat the trick with another win in their second home match away from pockmarked Rodney Parade. Opta says they are looking for their second home win in a row for the first time since October (a run of eight), which just demonstrates the value of a decent playing surface.

To boost their chances, boss Michael Flynn finally signed long-term target Joe Ledley this week. The midfielder, a free agent, helped Wales reach the semi-finals of Euro 2016. His experience will be invaluable as they try to overcome what the manager felt was travel fatigue in losing 2-1 at Port Vale, their fifth away game in six matches.

With a midweek off to come, Newport can't afford to waste the opportunity against Leyton Orient. As long as Kevin Ellison has recovered from the excitement of scoring against his old team (Morecambe) last weekend, his experience could be key, too, off the bench. The 42-year-old sees himself as a "pantomime villain", so is desperate for crowds to return so he can play up to that - and he wants that to be in League One next season.

Forward Padraig Amond and captain Joss Ladabie, to name but a few, certainly could play in the division above. And if they show their big game mentality to lead the charge they can justify the layers' confidence. Their price is relatively short, not least because there have to be doubts about Orient, on form.

Reasons include that temporary manager Jobi McAnuff has witnessed just two goals for in four games, with five against. Two clean sheets are something, as was a draw with Scunthorpe in which midfielder Ousseynou Cisse scored a rare goal.

The visitors have netted just once in four away games (McAnuff's first game in charge, a 1-0 victory at Grimsby). This despite the huge talents of Conor Wilkinson, Tristan Abrahams and Danny Johnson. Meanwhile Newport have averaged two goals in their past four matches. Even if feeling tired, they should have enough to win.

Stevenage can hold Cumbrians to draw

Stevenage 3.613/5 v Carlisle 2.35/4; the draw 3.412/5
1pm kick-off

Alex Revell says that having a clear plan and messaging for his Stevenage players makes them more confident, happier and therefore more capable of gaining points. He is humble enough to acknowledge, though, that appointing his former boss at Brighton, Dean Wilkins, to his backroom team in December had had a huge impact. Boro were 23rd. Now they are safe in mid-table.

The manager also admitted that playing Saturday-Tuesday for seven weeks finally caught up with them last weekend, when they registered their tenth goalless draw of the season, at Southend (who have six). Opta say the last Football League team to manage more, 11, was Preston in 2005-06.

While not having to think about a midweek game might have eased a few minds, it was Stevenage's fourth goalless draw (all away) in six games. Opta stress they are eight games unbeaten, scoring six and conceding just once. However, the most intriguing statistic is that Boro have registered six clean sheets in a row, a club record for the Football League, says the stats compilers.

These clean sheet statistics could be telling as they face Carlisle, whose eight-game winless run came to an end in spectacular fashion by beating Bradford last Saturday. They followed up on Tuesday with a draw at Mansfield - when boss Chris Beech felt they should have won.

Experienced defenders such as Ben Coker and Scott Cuthbert deserve much credit for Stevenage's success. Whether midfielder Elliott List or striker Danny Newton can finish a chance at the other end is the question.

Carlisle's tactics on Tuesday are of interest on that matter. Beech described matching Mansfield's midfield diamond as "arm locking". He might employ a similarly straight jacket mentality in order to try to contain the hosts, then somehow prise open the defence.

Those tactics worked against Mansfield to the extent that Jon Mellish created a great opening from which Rhys Bennett "had to score", said Beech. Eventually a Mellish driving run provided Offrande Zanzala with the chance to net a fourth goal in three games.

As Opta point out, Carlisle might have scored in 12 of their past 13 matches but they have only won three of them - a poor return. Stevenage have scored in their past four home games (two wins, two draws). I suspect, after their midweek break they will be on song enough, certainly at the back, to be able to earn another draw.

Kelly's heroes can pick up a point

Barrow 2.6413/8 v Crawley 3.02/1; the draw 3.412/5
3pm kick-off

Those who thought Rob Kelly deserved a chance to be Barrow manager more permanently than when stepping in between bosses are being proved right.

Forced to retire from playing aged 24 through a back injury, Kelly has been a perennial assistant or "caretaker", with such a position leading to a year in charge of Leicester City. He is still only a caretaker at Barrow, but well on his way to replicating what he did with the Foxes, where he took 21 points in his first 10 games.

The Bluebirds have reaped 12 points in his six games, registering clean sheets in all four wins. The other two games were 1-0 defeats, to in-form Bolton and Harrogate.

Winning at leaders Cheltenham on Tuesday night was one of the shocks of the season, declared one headline - and it was not wrong. Kelly (who has recruited the experienced Neil McDonald to the coaching team) did say they would "try everything" to avoid relegation. Causing that kind of upset is a fantastic confidence booster.

Late goals, by Josh Kay against Walsall and Scott Quigley, against Oldham at the start of the run, show they have stamina, fitness and desire to battle to the end. They were also hugely deflated to lose to late goals against the Trotters and Sulphurites, but bounced back to win three in a row for the first time since returning to the Football League, 48 years after they left it.

Captain Neal Eardley's return on Tuesday would have lifted them, and Kay found himself in the starting XI as another of three changes. Even on a winning run, Kelly is not afraid to alter the team, then.

Similar to Kelly, Crawley boss John Yems has spent much of his career not being the front-man manager. The Reds also won three in a row, with clean sheets, before Tuesday's 1-1 draw with Walsall. The defence earned much praise, Joe McKierney and Jordan Tunnicliffe at its heart.

Crawley have rebuilt confidence after a blip following their FA Cup exit. Opta report the remarkable statistic that they have scored in each of their past 10 away games. They beat Tranmere in their last road trip, but a rise to 10th has been helped by three straight home matches - and scoring in their past eight games overall. They have only netted once each game, apart from the 2-0 home win over Exeter.

Opta emphasise that Barrow have won three on the bounce without conceding but have never reached four such results in the Football League. Crawley's penchant for a goal a game (at least) bodes well for a draw against a low-scoring side who have netted just six in six games.

Harrogate can hold their nerve at home

Harrogate 2.35/4 v Morecambe 3.613/5; the draw 3.55/2
3pm kick-off

Among a thicket of tricky-to-fathom matches (and prices) come a couple of clear statistics from Opta: Harrogate have won their last four games at home, without conceding. Morecambe, meanwhile, have won just one of their past six away matches. Add in Opta's prompt that the hosts lost this pair's only Football League encounter with the Shrimps in early December, so want revenge, and Voila! Bob is your close relative.

Maybe. Sport never quite works like that, eh? Reasons to be fearful are that Morecambe drew their most recent away game at high flying Forest Green, battling hard and showing their credentials. And they are, afterall, fighting for a top seven spot, while the Sulphurites' chances of reaching the top seven are slim.

Manager Simon Weaver has fulfilled the objective not to be relegated in their first season, largely on the back of some astute January signings: Josh McPake, Josh March, Simon Power have been prominent. March might be out now with a knee injury but when you have a striker, Jack Muldoon, who has netted a dozen goals waiting on the bench it shouldn't matter. He's been glad to regain his starting place.

Morecambe have scored 17 goals in 10 games, but won just four of them, drawing another three. They shouldn't be too rattled from losing at home to Newport. But for me they are not consistent enough and can be picked off in games such as this, even if they do score.

They have also conceded in each of those 10 games - 15 goals in total, undermining the work of Carlos Mendes-Gomes and Cole Stockton (four strikes each) and Aaron Wildig (three). It's no wonder their goal average is just +1 this season, very much on the low side compared to most sides in the top nine (all of whom are largely in double figures). It's a weakness that gives Harrogate every chance of a fifth home win in a row.