League Two Tips: Stevenage to give Evans happy return

Low-scoring Boro can add to Betsy's blues

Crawley 5.04/1 v Stevenage 1.910/11; the draw 3.613/5

Steve Evans has a slight problem as he returns to the club where he has enjoyed his biggest glories: his Stevenage side can be a little lethargic on the road. He wasn't impressed when they lost at Salford and Bradford.

Boro haven't squashed teams by big margins at home, either. From 24 attempts on goal, they only had Dan Sweeney's late winner to show against Harrogate. Evans made four substitutions at once to change the game, in which Danny Rose had strong chances.

In their previous home game, Alex Gilbey netted the only goal. Having not scored more than twice in any game, they might have the lowest goals return of the top seven teams, but there should be no sniffing at the fact they sit third in League Two.

Certainly they have plenty to worry Reds boss Kevin Betsy, who is facing calls from supporters for the board to blow the whistle on his first senior management role. Ten games is a great benchmark - and Crawley are struggling in 22nd place.

Former Arsenal U23 coach Betsy had been at his "lowest point" on Saturday, when Crawley lost 4-1 at Doncaster, displaying a lack of "street mentality". By Monday, Betsy was full of confidence that his team could turn around a poor start.

Losing three in a row would be a first for Betsy, say Opta, something they point out Crawley last suffered in April, under John Yems.

At least Dom Telford, last season's top scorer in League Two, has returned to the fold after injury. He was one of the scorers as Crawley took their first win, against struggling Stockport, at the Broadfield a couple of weeks ago. However, they really had to battle, taking the lead three times. The fact that midfielders James Tilley and James Balagazi are top scorers (with two each) is not a great sign. The hosts have plenty of firepower in not just Telford but Ashley Nadesan and Tom Nichols.

If it is one thing an Evans side has it is street mentality - that should bring another three points for the visitors. He also has a decent record against his old club, say Opta, losing just one of five matches.

Regular readers know I don't bet odds-on. The short price on the visitors means I am going to make a BetBuilder my actual bet. Combine Stevenage to win and under 2.5 goals for odds of 3.5.

Sutton must overcome dropping points

Gillingham 3.39/4 v Sutton 2.56/4; the draw 3.412/5

Sutton boss Matt Gray felt it was just a little lack of discipline that cost his side victory against Salford, who beat them 2-1 at home last weekend. He felt they were fully in control before Donovan Wilson's red card.

Jacob Chapman almost snatched a late point, while Enzio Boldewijn plus Louis John were among others to go close earlier. Will Randall has much to offer, from dead balls and as a supplier of chances. The U's are not resting on their first season laurels, determined to have another fine season and even reach the playoffs. They will relish the relatively short trip to Gillingham, who continue to struggle.

Held away by Hartlepool and their new - or is it interim? - manager Keith Curle, Gills boss Neil Harris reflected it had been "important" not to lose to a side given a bounce by a new voice in their heads. Keeper Glenn Morris continues to earn his money by doing too much of the work when they do earn points.

The strikers continue to struggle. Mikael Mandron and Scott Kashket remain the only two players to have scored EFL goals for the Kent side this season. Another afternoon of struggle beckons for the hosts.

Sutton might not have it all their own way, if Opta stats are to be believed. The stats compilers say no side has lost more points from winning positions than Sutton in the EFL this season.

Dons to add to Colchester's pain

AFC Wimbledon 2.35/4 v Colchester 3.613/5; the draw 3.46123/50

There is a danger that AFC Wimbledon could suffer the bounce effect from Colchester having a different manager speaking to the players. But the U's had that against Rochdale and lost.

Johnnie Jackson's hosts, meanwhile, battled back from a goal down to take a lead, but then lost it to draw, at Bradford last weekend. They showed much fortitude, therefore. Even after losing captain Alex Pearce to injury, Ethan Chislett equalised before Harry Pell put them ahead.

Already without Nathan Young-Coombes, the Dons are looking a little light in numbers. They need to start pressing their advantage. Josh Davison needs to up his goals return in the absence of his fellow striker. Last season's return for Swindon, of nine goals in 21 games, is something to aim for.

Colchester have hope in Noah Chilvers and his three strikes this season. They have some quality strikers in Freddie Sears, Frank Nouble and Beryly Lubala, but it is a case of getting the supply lines to find them.

The visitors are likely to suffer more pain before they appoint a new boss.

Take a draw on the Wild side

Tranmere 2.8615/8 v Barrow 2.915/8; the draw 3.211/5

Where shall we hunt for draws this week? Prenton Park. The draw count this season is down to one in four matches, down from an average in this division of one in three. They have not seemed so obvious to spot in recent weeks.

However, seem to be gathering some momentum, while Barrow took the shine off a very fine start to the season by losing at home to leaders Leyton Orient.

I'm going against the grain here, because the likelihood of a team with one draw this season (none at home) and a side without one at all would suggest the 3.211/5 price on the eventuality is skinny. Odds makers can't split the two win prices.

However, I am buoyed by Micky Mellon's positivity after winning at Walsall, courtesy of Elliott Nevitt's strike. He said that a summer policy of recruiting young players who could run was paying dividends. They looked like they were gaining a "foothold" in the division. They also have five clean sheets from their last eight matches. Kane Hemmings and Jordan Turnbull also had strong chances.

Time will tell whether Barrow's first home defeat of the season was a bump in the road or the start of a slide by Pete Wild's side. The Bluebirds have two defeats (from five) away. Finishing chances was the only difference between his side and Orient, the manager felt.

The match was only the second this season in which they had failed to score. The other was when losing at Sutton. Winger Ben Whitfield, who has three, and Josh Gordon, who has seven, will look to rectify that between them but the visitors attempts to win consecutive away games for the first time since March 2021 (Opta) could be thwarted by a proud defence.