League Two Tips: Back Orient to sink weary Sutton

Tired minds could suffer rare home defeat

Sutton United 2.35/4 v Leyton Orient 3.711/4; the draw 3.412/5

Sutton United have a fantastic home record, but I can't help thinking they will be a bit leggy and emotionally drained after their EFL Trophy Final defeat at Wembley last Sunday.

A terrific first EFL season might be spinning away from an assault on the top seven into mid-table for Matt Gray's men. Or it could revive here as the U's try to extend their run at Gander Green Lane, where they have seven wins and five draws in a run of 12 games unbeaten, as Opta point out. They add that is the best run for a newly-promoted side since Bristol Rovers went 14 games after their promotion season, up to May 2016.

A point has been earned for the U's at home in recent weeks against Tranmere, Forest Green, Bristol Rovers and Northampton - all teams fighting for promotion.

Harry Beautyman would have loved to have scored on his birthday weekend at Wembley, where Sutton lost to Rotherham in extra time, having led and been pegged back in second half injury time. Omar Bugiel, Donovan Wilson and David Ajiboye will be desperate to continue a fine season.

However, Leyton Orient certainly look too big a price based on recent escapades. In their past six games Richie Wellens' side have won four, drawn once and lost once - a surprising midweek defeat at Oldham 11 days ago. As Opta emphasise, that was a first defeat under their new manager who has been in charge for seven games. In four of those they have not conceded. They have netted 11 times and conceded four times.

Otis Khan showed glimpses of his long-held potential by netting at Walsall on Saturday, against one of his old clubs. In the dressing room bragging rights, Aaran Drinan (12) now has to find another goal to match Harry Smith (13) while Ruel Sotiriou is really making his mark as Wellens builds for next season.

Lawrence Vigouroux would love another clean sheet. His manager rates him as he assesses his squad for a sustained assault on promotion next season as opposed to the one which petered out with a poor run that prompted the exit of Kenny Jackett. The away side could snatch victory.

Reds need to remain strong at home

Crawley 2.447/5 v Barrow 3.412/5; the draw 3.39/4

Experienced manager Phil Brown is still seeking his first win - even point - for Barrow, two games after replacing Mark Cooper. Could Crawley be the place to earn one?

The Reds have proved adept at unpicking some of the better sides in the division, with an attacking verve and a makeshift defence of late. However, they can easily slip up against other sides, much to the annoyance of boss John Yems, who has castigated them publicly for what he perceives as poor performances.

The Sussex side have had a week's break courtesy of Sutton's EFL Trophy final. Two wins at home, against Rochdale and Swindon, preceded a 2-1 reverse at flying Salford. There remains little wrong with the attacking options. Ashley Nadesan, Tom Nichols and former Crystal Palace player Kwesi Appiah, returning after injury, ensure any chances created have a strong chance of being turned into goals. Crawley, point out Opta, have not won more than two games in a row at home since March last year - a run of four. Barrow, they add, have lost three in a row but have not lost four on the bounce since February 2021.

Yems says he wants to get his summer business done early while midfielder Dannie Bulman has officially announced his retirement aged 43. He's already looking towards next season then, while hoping he has enough defensive numbers to have a decent run-in.

Josh Kay has stressed how the Bluebirds are in a relegation scrap. It appears Scunthorpe will be relegated but there are just three points between 21st place Barrow and Stevenage, in the other relegation slot (23rd). Dropping off a level after taking the lead against high flyers Port Vale on the way to a defeat didn't help.

Ironically, in one sense Barrow have gone backwards under Brown. The Bluebirds conceded just twice in six games, then two in Cooper's final one. And now they have conceded twice in each of the past three games, as Opta stress.

That's a lot for top scorers Ollie Banks (nine) and Josh Gordon (5) to make up, going forward. Crawley really need to make home advantage count.

Goals look like the bet on the Ammies

Salford 1.768/11 v Harrogate 5.85/1; the draw 4.03/1

I've never understood how football clubs can make huge losses each year and keep trading, or be within fair play rules of spending well above income. Salford City apparently lost £91,000 a week in 2020-21, accounts to June. That I can understand, because of Covid.

However, they have lost more than £15 million since 2015, according to Project 92. It's a long-term investment strategy to propel the Ammies up to an even higher level. I come from a time when a £1million loss meant a club going bust. There was no-one around to save Aldershot in 1992.

Salford's owners - from the Manchester United class of 92, mixed with businessman Peter Lim - clearly have deep pockets to soak up losses. And Gary Bowyer's men - finally - seem to be on a run that would indicate you could trust them with a wager to win. Before Tuesday's home loss to Port Vale, seven wins on an unbeaten 11-game run had reaped 25 points.

Unfortunately, that means they are odds on. So we'll have to get a bit creative and go for over 2.5 goals at 2.111/10. I'm tempted to go for over 3.5 goals but I'll be a little cautious. It's not often the hosts score big.

They hit five against bottom club Scunthorpe, Brandon Thomas-Asante scoring a hat-trick, before taking his season's tally to 10 in a 2-1 win over Crawley. Stephen Kelly, on loan from Rangers, has started to make his mark in midfield, scoring against the Iron, too. Meanwhile Matthew Lund will want to turn his six goals into 10 by the end of the season.

The hosts still have a chance to claw their way into the top seven, something that didn't look possible even at the end of February, when they were stringing two wins together for only the second time this season, to that point.

Harrogate look like a team who could be put to the sword, or who - at least - are slipping down steadily from the great heights they achieved last season in their first EFL campaign. Simon Weaver has started making big noises about a clearout of players who are not performing to the standards he now demands. Naivety was one word he used after the 2-1 home defeat to Colchester, in which Jack Muldoon gave them a very early lead.

Muldoon, Jack Diamond and Luke Armstrong all have double figure goal tallies. Yet the Sulphurites have not scored in three of their past four away games (the other was a 3-0 win at struggling Scunthorpe). Nor did they score at home to Leyton Orient. Even if they do manage a goal here, I think Salford should now be far too confident and strong.

Score draw on the cards at Tranmere

Tranmere 2.89/5 v Bristol Rovers 3.02/1; the draw 3.39/4

Just when we thought Tranmere didn't do home draws, Spring comes along and brings two to Prenton Park in relatively quick succession. A first, against Port Vale in mid-February, has been followed three home games later by another against equally in-form Carlisle.

Having two players sent off in that game - defender Calum McDonald and midfielder Kieron Morris - doesn't help their cause when facing a rampant Rovers side. The Bristolians have clearly heeded their manager Joey Barton's words that it will take something special to stop them charging to the top seven, made a few weeks ago.

Tranmere, in fact, have returned two draws in three matches. It's not entirely surprising, because eight away draws is the third highest number in League Two. At least the hosts still have vastly experienced Peter Clarke at the back, as they try to resist Harry Anderson, who has netted twice from midfield in recent weeks, as many times as his namesake Elliot.

Ever present Clarke even netted a fourth of the season recently, in the 3-2 home win to check Mansfield's excellent run. For too long he was his side's top scorer this season, something Kane Hemmings (5), Elliott Nevitt (6) and Morris (5) have at least rectified. However, for some reason they still lack a singular obvious scoring outlet. They have only failed to score once in eight though, netting 13 times in total, but conceding 14.

That might not be enough to totally nullify the likes of Aaron Collins (11 strikes) and Anthony Evans (8). The visitors look very capable of earning a seventh away draw of the season (which would be just a second in 13 games) to match their wins and losses columns. But more importantly it would keep them very much in the play-off picture. And ahead of Tranmere.

Opta hint that this could be a scoring draw. Tranmere, they say, have only had one clean sheet in 10 games (16 goals conceded) and yet have the best clean sheets record (18 with Northampton). The Pirates, they add, have not lost two away games in a row more than once this season (they lost at Carlisle on their last trip).