League Two Tips: Back Carlisle on day of reckoning

• Cumbrians are decent price

• Crawley won't roll over

• Northampton can secure win

Carlisle to prosper - the hard way

Sutton 3.814/5 v Carlisle 2.26/5; the draw 3.55/2

On the last day, finding value is not easy. A lot of sides who need to win are very short prices. Carlisle are a reasonable price, precisely because they don't need to win (they can't gain automatic promotion) - although they will very much want to win.

The scars of defeat to Salford just a week ago will be fresh in the memory. Paul Simpson's men will want to avoid an early playoffs clash with the Ammies and they might also want to retain second leg "home advantage", even though the recent defeat was at Brunton Park. Salford, on the same points, could yet rise above them.

If the Cumbrians can take inspiration from Owen Moxon's excellent first season in the EFL (Opta say he has a League Two high 15 assists) they can certainly overcome their recent lack of goals to beat a side who have lost their last six games.

Kristian Dennis, who has 20 goals this season, has at least rediscovered his ability to score (one against Salford, two to beat Tranmere a few weeks ago). Meanwhile Jon Mellish - who scored a lot one season - has found that touch, too, but is banned for three games.

The manager wants to stay "for a long time" and his chairman wants that, too. The visitors don't have the best away record recently, but Sutton look like they need a reset after earning just three points from 10 games.

Injuries have taken their toll and they might want to give their fans a good summer send off, but Donovan Wilson, David Ajiboye and co have quite a task here. They have lost four in a row at home, the last three to promotion chasing sides.

Simpson gives a warning: "People need to remember, we're Carlisle United. We ain't gonna do anything straightforward". But if they can't make a task like winning here straightforward, what chance will they have of winning the playoffs?

Free-falling Swindon too short

Swindon 1.9620/21 v Crawley 4.216/5; the draw 4.47/2

Opta point out that since Jody Morris's first game as Swindon Town manager in February, only Walsall (15) and AFC Wimbledon (9) have earned fewer than the Robins' 16 points.

Morris's ejection from the manager's position is hardly surprising, then, after Frank Lampard's assistant at Derby and Chelsea was appointed with the club in sixth and looking to push on. They will finish at least 10th.

Their odds-on price makes little sense, especially given another Opta stat: that Crawley have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches (they have never kept four as an EFL club).

Their former manager Scott Lindsey could heap further misery on them, at a big price of 4.216/5. The Reds are probably only that big because their away stats are awful, just two wins and six draws.

However, they have picked up nine points in six games compared to their hosts' seven. They beat Hartlepool in their last away game, Dom Telford securing their EFL place. They also won at AFC Wimbledon. Between those away wins were heavy defeats at Crewe and Mansfield.

With a few Swindon players worrying about their futures, they should be fighting for everything. But whether Rushian Hepburn-Murphy can build on the five goals he has scored in the final third of the season against opponents who have become more stubborn towards the end of the campaign is the question. I'm willing to go for the draw.

Stags to be frustrated by draw

Colchester 3.711/4 v Mansfield 2.166/5; the draw 3.711/4

Mansfield seem to have blown their chances of reaching the playoffs for a second season - Nigel Clough admitting they now need a "miracle" to sneak into the top seven. As well as being three points behind Bradford and Salford, they are three and four goals behind. If either slipped to defeat, the Stags would probably need to win by two clear goals, which would be a difficult task at Colchester.

The U's have won their last two home games scoring four goals in both, while drawing two previous to that. (Opta point out that Colchester have not won three in a row at home since May 2021.) Stockport and Northampton, visitors in the past three months, both only won 1-0. Ben Garner's side went eight games unbeaten before losing at Doncaster last weekend.

Wing-back Junior Tchamadeu will be missing through suspension, but with Noah Chilvers showing good form in front of goal in recent weeks, the U's should have enough attacking verve to put their visitors on edge.

The Stags have at least scored in each of their past eight, Davis Keillor-Dunn leading the way with four, but injuries or not they have not been as consistent as last season, despite scoring 70 goals which Opta point out is the biggest number in a side managed by Clough in the EFL.

They might find themselves confined to a draw here. Clough, talking to the board about a new deal already, might want assurances about a strong player recruitment drive starting straight away.

Cobblers to take early lead and win

Tranmere Rovers 6.05/1 v Northampton 1.824/5; the draw 3.711/4

Is it dangerous to think Northampton can win and secure automatic promotion? Jon Brady's side won on the final day last season, but were ousted by Bristol Rovers' 7-0 win. Anything other than a win on Monday and Stockport can replace them in third.

Defender Max Dyche, son of Everton boss Sean who won promotion with Northampton in 2006, is determined to seal promotion after Kieron Bowie's rally call to do so with a game to spare didn't work out.

However, tipping any side odds-on isn't going to bring much gain. We'll have to be a little more inventive.

Shall we take 21-goal Sam Hoskins to score first, available at 3.7511/4 on Sportsbook? Or will Danny Hylton score his first of the season? I'd actually want much longer odds on this regular substitute than 6.05/1 to net the opener.

Tranmere have shown some resilience under temporary and now "permanent" manager Ian Dawes (eight games at the helm) but have not faced teams of Northampton's quality in probably a dozen matches. They have scored in 10 of them. Harvey Saunders has struck three, while Josh Hawkes' four have all come been penalties. There's a simple solution to stop that!

I suspect Brady will have it drilled into his visitors to attack, get the first goal early and settle. Louis Appere has netted three times in the first 32 minutes in the past seven games, and they were 3-0 up by half time against Harrogate a fortnight ago.

Therefore, taking the visitors to be winning at half time and full time at 3.185/40 makes some sort of sense.

Northampton will hope that the Opta stat about them compiling the most away points in League Two in the past two seasons (74) holds up, against the team with the most at home (87).