EFL League One & League Two

League Two Tips: Back Grimsby to hold Robins to a draw

  • Ian Lamont
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Jon Brady, the Northampton Town manager
Jon Brady's Northampton have injuries but they should still beat Stockport

"The price on a Northampton win seems a bit of an anomaly, considering the Cobblers have won their last three games - and four out of five at home."

Swindon could play out a draw at Blundell Park on Saturday, says Ian Lamont, who believes Northampton are too big a price to ignore...

Robins capable of a point at Mariners

Grimsby 2.35/4 v Swindon 3.55/2; the draw 3.613/5

Grimsby are a remarkably short price considering they have yet to win at home, against a side which has one defeat away. The fact that the Mariners have drawn all three fixtures at Blundell Park while the Robins have drawn three on their travels should point even more firmly to a stalemate.

Furthermore, Paul Hurst's side have only scored twice and conceded twice at home, against the varying strengths of Northampton and Gillingham. Their other home game was against another club with ambition, Sutton. Swindon have to be considered in that category of upwardly mobile teams and in-form Harry Clifton, who has four goals in the past four games, might not find it easy to score against them.

Hurst must find it heart-warming that defenders including Anthony Driscoll-Glennon and Michee Efete have ensured Max Crocombe has kept four clean sheets. The Mariners have only conceded twice in a game once, on the opening day at leaders Leyton Orient.

Andy Smith came in for special praise from Hurst, who added that it is not just the defence but the whole team unit, which is responsible for their great record at the back. Therefore it is visiting boss Scott Lindsey who will be wondering how to prepare his strikers with the extra edge needed to unpick the Grimsby lock. Hurry back Harry McKirdy!

At the other end, Jacob Wakeling has been doing a fine job in front of goal, scoring in consecutive games. Opta say he has the division's third best shot to goal conversion rate.

The visitors are not hugely likely to break down their hosts win, but are not likely to be beaten easily either. This could well finish a draw.

Atkins in form to keep up Stags' run

Crewe 3.613/5 v Mansfield 2.35/4; the draw 3.613/5

Crewe had a fine start to the season, winning three of their opening four games. However, three draws and a defeat followed in the next four matches before Saturday's win over Crawley. Which should not have been a surprise considering the Sussex side's poor form.

Alex Morris was delighted that Courtney Baker-Richardson was "clinical" for his winner and noted that all his five strikes this season have been at Gresty Road. Will he be able to find chinks in Mansfield's armour though? And which Stags will turn up? The side that lost their opening three away games or the one which beat Doncaster and Gillingham in their last two?

Nigel Clough's side have not conceded in two games, and are unbeaten in three. However, they need Lucas Atkins to continue his scoring rate, having netted twice in three games, while injuries ease. Yet again their treatment bench is too full. George Lapslie will have to continue chipping in. With three already, he is already well on the way to last year's seven.

The visitors will not want to land up in the playoffs again and know if they can maintain a better start than last year that a top three place should be in their grasp.

Opta say Crewe rarely manage back-to-back home wins, going back to December for the last, and on form the visitors should continue that pattern.

Flash Gordon could help keep Orient at bay

Barrow 2.89/5 v Leyton Orient 3.02/1; the draw 3.259/4

Seven goal Josh Gordon says Barrow were "ruthless in both boxes" in their 2-0 win over Newport but admitted it can take a goal to settle the Bluebirds down. They have done exceptionally well this season under Pete Wild, after struggling last season. Opta, say Gordon, has only been outscored this season by Northampton's Sam Hoskins (10) and Bradford's Andy Cook (8).

The hosts have been devastating at Holker Street, even if you could argue that they have seen off teams not in top form at the time, certainly not away: Bradford, Walsall, Harrogate and Doncaster. The latter, said the manager, was the best performance of the season.

Ben Whitfield has also scored semi-regularly while Billy Waters has to sweat on the sidelines. The question is, will scoring the third highest number of goals this season be enough to hold off the second top scorers and leaders Orient?

A home record of 8-3 goals faces one of 6-2 away. Six clean sheets gives Richie Wellens's side a strong platform for any match (Barrow have four of their own). The O's have only dropped points once, 1-1 at Swindon. They have a variety of scorers, from Paul Smyth to George Moncur while full back Tom James's goals from the start of the season seem to have dried up.

I'm not expecting many goals, but I think these two early season pacesetters could cancel each other out, even if, as Opta say, Wellens has won all three games against Barrow as a manager.

Say Cobblers to the price on Brady's men

Northampton 2.568/5 v Stockport 3.185/40; the draw 3.55/2

The price on a Northampton win seems a bit of an anomaly, considering the Cobblers have won their last three games - and four out of five at home. Opta stress that they could win three in a row with clean sheets for the first time since last October.

Stockport, by contrast, have lost their last two - and not picked up a point away this season. Cobblers boss Jon Brady is looking forward to welcoming back his former defender Fraser Horsfall. But unless he has given detailed inside information to his new Stockport team-mates and they execute them perfectly, there's nothing in the formline to suggest Northampton should be so long priced.

Yes, at least five players are injured (Shaun McWilliams and Tyler Magloire closest to returns). However, this has not held them back in recent weeks. Sam Hoskins already has 10 goals for the season and Jon Gurthrie, from defence, has two in the past two games.

Dave Challinor's Hatters have at least scored in all but one match this season. Top scorer Antoni Sarcevic, the midfielder who has three goals, will have a job leading the team to outscore the hosts. Stockport could well lose their first five league games away for the first time since 1971-72 (Opta).

A Bet Builder of Northampton to win, both teams to score NO and over 2.5 goals pays 18.68 on Sportsbook.

18.68

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