Notts County v Chesterfield Tip: Back The Draw and Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/112.00
Friday 15th May, kick-off 20:00, live on Sky Sports (agg 1-0)
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A missed penalty in the early stages of the first leg at Saltergate could come back to haunt Chesterfield. Lee Bonis found the post rather than the back of the net and County took advantage in a perfect smash-and grab with hardly a shot, little possession and an xG figure of just 0.24 to win.
Chesterfield have won away to Notts County in League Two in both of the last two seasons, winning 2-1 in March 2025 and 3-2 in March this year, after the Magpies received a 19th minute red card. But the hosts are favourites in the match betting and the 90 minute guarantee with a price of 5/42.25 against Chesterfield's 9/52.80.
The tie is far from dead, but then a 1-0 scoreline tells us that, and perhaps Chesterfield are a little too big here.
Over 2.5 Goals leads to a double figure tip at 11/112.00
Going for goals backfired in the first game as Notts County opted to contain their opponents. It worked well but it could have been oh so different with that early penalty.
The xG for Notts County home at 1.49 and xA at just 1.10 reads well. For Chesterfield, at the home xG is 1.50 and xA is 1.05. But the xG for Paul Cook and his men away is 1.29 with an xA of 1.49, so I still think there could be a goal or two in this.
With a potentially close game too, there's a big price to be had at 11/112.00 with the Draw and Over 2.5 Goals.
Back the draw and Over 2.5 Goals
Back Jatta for the anytime goal at 7/42.75
County's Tom Iorpenda has eight assists in League Two this season, including four in his last eight games. It's the most assists by a player aged 21 or younger in a season since 2021-22 and he has some good forwards to supply.
The hosts have Alassana Jatta Anytime Scorer at 7/42.75 and Matthew Dennis 21/103.10 who could be popular for goal bets, but I always give Dilan Markanday at second look.
He has eight this season for the Spirerites from midfield and is a wonderfully creative little schemer. He's 3/14.00 to score anytime and a massive 22/123.00 to get the first goal.
Jatta is going through a quiet spell of sorts and hasn't scored since a double at Harrogate at the end of March, but I prefer him for the bet here with a record of 16 this season and he'll surely get a chance.
Back Alassana Jatta Anytime Scorer
Salford v Grimsby Town Tip: Back Salford to win @ 13/102.30
Friday 15th May, kick-off 19:15, live on Sky Sports (agg 2-1)
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For those who got involved in the BTTS 'Yes' bet in the first leg between Salford and Grimsby, it couldn't have gone any better with two goals inside the first four minutes.
From that game, Salford are now the 5/42.25 favourite in the Promotion market, with Notts County at 6/42.50.
Salford lost both regular season meetings with Grimsby and the last team to win both legs of an EFL play-off semi-final tie against a side who did the double over them in the regular season were Northampton Town v Cheltenham in League Two in 2012-13.
Robinson experience crucial here
Karl Robinson's play-off experience in post-season games was evident in the first leg, as two fairly attacking sides played a more attritional game and neither played enough football. The Salford boss is winless in his last three play-off home matches (D1 L2) so we need to right that wrong.
The Ammies took some impressive form into the play-offs, having lost just once in their final 14 games of the regular campaign and at 13/102.30, they edge it for the Match Odds bet.
Salford stayed unbeaten and won six of their final seven home games in the League Two regular season (D1), beating champions Bromley 2-0 in their most recent. No team kept more clean sheets on home turf in the fourth tier than the Ammies (10).
That stat backs up the play here at 13/102.30.
Back Salford to win
Rely on the home defence for Under 2.5 bet
Only MK Dons (45) scored more away goals in the 2025-26 League Two regular season than Grimsby Town (33), who also picked up the most away victories in 2026 in the fourth tier (P12 W7 D2 L3).
However, Salford were good defensively towards the end of the season and nine of their 12 games from March onwards (excluding the playoff win) hit the Under 2.5 Goals.
They did well to restrict Grimsby to just 0.65xG in the first leg and rather than the riskier BTTS bet, playing Under 2.5 Goals at 20/231.87 is more attractive.
For fans of the more vintage footballer, Fabio Borini at the ripe old age of 35 swapped Sampdoria for Salford and has five goals - all at home for the Ammies.
Back Under 2.5 Goals