League Two Midweek Tips: Robins have reason to fly

Promotion in sight for visitors while Boro tire

Stevenage 4.03/1 v Cheltenham 2.245/4; the draw 3.211/5
Tuesday, 19:00

Did Michael Duff think that second placed Cheltenham were feeling the pressure after losing at Crawley on Friday night, when sitting top of the table? No. If taking 19 points from 10 games was feeling pressure, he added, he'd take a repeat of that over the final five games. Nine or 10 more points would pretty much guarantee promotion.

The Robins simply didn't perform in all aspects, Duff reasoned. They duly lost top spot a day later. They are top of the "XG league", for expected goals, he said, and have had enough chances to win most games comfortably.

Scorers come from all over the pitch, which can be a huge recipe for success: opponents don't know whether Alfie May and Andy Williams are more likely to score than Liam Sercombe and Callum Thomas from midfield. Much was made of Ben Tozer's long throw during FA Cup coverage against Manchester City in January, but the Robins are much more than that dead ball specialism.

Stevenage have lost two in a row which ended a 12-game unbeaten run. Resilience at the back seemed key in their rise to be well clear of the drop zone, with just four goals conceded. Now Alex Revell's men have let in four in three games. Fatigue, mental or physical, and relief have perhaps played their parts.

They have worked incredibly hard during a packed period, as Luke Norris's statistics show. Since signing in early January, he has played 19 games (and scored four goals). Exhaustion might have led to not testing the keeper enough with one of three great chances Stevenage had in the second half against Mansfield, with Elliott List also firing at the keeper while Jack Aitchison blasted over.

Cheltenham simply have more at stake, but must overcome a formline that has earned them just a point from three away games. In their past 10, they have won every other game (four of the wins falling at home) but having lost and underperformed on their last outing they should find the urgency to win here.

Southend likely to suffer blow

Colchester 2.6413/8 v Southend 3.211/5; the draw 3.211/5
Tuesday, 19:00

Southend, second bottom of the Football League, aren't just playing for themselves on Tuesday night. They are playing for Grimsby. And less so for Barrow, Scunthorpe and possibly Walsall. If they lose, the Shrimpers could be relegated. Plus Grimsby will have one foot even more firmly parked in that camp, even if they can beat Morecambe. A draw still leaves them six points behind the team they can most likely catch to stay up, but then with only three games left.

New Southend boss Phil Brown says this is probably the biggest game in the club's 115-year history.

Dare Hayden Mullins, also a recent appointee at Colchester, and his side think they have found some sort of formula, after beating Walsall (a first win in 11 matches)? That's an incredibly bad run. Victory was quite a turnaround after losing 5-2 at Oldham.

After scoring in five of their past six games, do Colchester have a head start over their visitors? Has coercing Michael Folivi into scoring again, for the first time this year, come too late? Frank Nouble has contributed well in the past few games, scoring twice.

Colchester have broken a run of games without scoring. They also came back from a goal down in Saturday's late kick off to win.

Meanwhile, Brown believes his battlers are up for the fight. It's hard to tell from goalless draws against Exeter and Crawley if they might fair better against fellow strugglers. They registered 14 shots in each game, but just two on target per match. They have netted just 24 times in total this season. Only Grimsby and Stevenage are in the 30s, with every other team notching 40+.

Brown was delighted with the application at Exeter, believing they could have won quite easily. Can Nathan Ferguson or Simeon Akinola finish a chance, is the question? They can defend it seems, with four clean sheets in six games. Keeper Mark Oxley has made great saves. Will last chance saloon be their making or breaking? Or will it bring them another draw that does them no favours? Both sides have a string of them recently and it seems a likely outcome.

Grimsby have to go for it

Grimsby 3.412/5 v Morecambe 2.427/5; the draw 3.39/4
Tuesday, 19:00

If Grimsby, as opposing managers among others claim, have been creating an abundance of chances, then surely they have an opportunity to win this fixture. They are fast running out of opportunities to pull themselves out of relegation trouble.

Staying up would represent possibly the greatest escape of all those achieved in League Two in recent years. Placing 13 shots on target in one game, as they did against Bolton on Saturday, is astonishing in itself, especially when it only returned two goals, for Jay Matete and Ira Jackson.

Defender Luke Hendrie and midfielder Giles Coke, unfortunately, are now doubts. Two players have effectively been ejected for headbutting each other, leading to questions about whether the squad was still "together". Boss Paul Hurst didn't like the line of questioning. Maybe the incident galvanised them, despite depleting numbers.

The Mariners have to go all out, as they did by scoring early against Bolton. Morecambe have been in blistering goal form in the past two matches, scoring four against Scunthorpe and Oldham, as they chase automatic promotion. They sit a point off the top three. However, Hurst will no doubt ram into his players that the Shrimps have lost their past two away games, won at out-of-form Harrogate only via an own goal and overall have not been in tip top form away for the past couple of months.

Cole Stockton and Carlos Mendes Gomes have both found openings to score in the past two matches. Grimsby cannot afford to give an inch at Cleethorpes. Will the game become too open? If they are to have a realistic chance of staying up, they must win.

Bantams and Rovers can grumble over a draw

Bradford 2.767/4 v Tranmere 2.89/5; the draw 3.613/5

Draws continue to abound in League Two. This is a prime candidate. While it would do little for Bradford's faltering play-off ambitions, or Tranmere's prospects of a late push for automatic promotion, it would probably give the visitors one less team to worry about as possible play-off opponents.

A mixed bag of results for both sides results in the similar price on either team to win. Keith Hill's visitors, in fact, would be more pleased to earn the point, given that their best result in six games has been a draw. Four have been accumulated, and six in nine matches.

Manager Hill must be wondering quite what has gone wrong. While rightly refusing to rely too heavily on "talisman" James Vaughan as he returns from injury, the experienced manager knows plenty of others could and should score.

Kaiyne Woolery has fought his way into the side having been a substitute when the manager arrived in November. But he hasn't scored in five matches now: and four of those have finished with Tranmere not scoring. The team did at least return to having intensity in their goalless game with Salford, the manager insisted.

Hill says he doesn't look at the league table, but he will know that Bradford's form has dipped after their triumphant start under Mark Trueman and Conor Sellers and that perhaps they are there for the taking. Just as the Bantams looked to reinvigorate their assault on a top seven place with three wins and a draw over late March and April, they lost ground again with defeats to Crawley and Harrogate.

Andy Cook has netted eight times since arriving in January. Another big performance is needed from him, now he has that understanding with fellow window arrival Danny Rowe. Bradford nearly always seem to concede, which doesn't bode well for a win and points even further to a draw.