"I can’t be having Stockport as short as evens, especially against a Grimsby side who have won four times away. The hosts have not even yet had back-to-back wins this season."
Paul Simpson is right not to get carried away with the Cumbrians' start to the season, says Ian Lamont, because Gary McSheffrey's men are capable of taking a point...
- Miller and Agard look strong together for Rovers
- Sutton suffering in second season
- Price too short on Stockport
Doncaster could claim a draw
Carlisle 2.01/1 v Doncaster 4.67/2; the draw 3.711/4
Paul Simpson says he is not getting carried away by Carlisle's start to the season, after the Cumbrians reached seventh spot by defeating Hartlepool last weekend. He knows only too well that he was recalled to Brunton Park after a slump this time last year to the same opponents. Simpson galvanised the squad to take 25 points from the final 15 matches to stay up.
Opta point out that his side are eight unbeaten, a run they last bettered in 2016. However, they have only won four of them. Patrick Omari's recent return helped them take a 3-1 win against Pools, while Owen Moxon's recent goal spree has kept the strike rate ticking over alongside Kristian Dennis (the seven-goal top scorer).
The layers think they have a strong chance of winning at home. Have Doncaster got the wherewithal to stop them, after winning two in seven, as Opta highlight? They did lose to Hartlepool 10 days ago, but boss Gary McSheffrey will argue that they have recently shown strong firepower in order to contain anyone.
Eight goals in four games is perhaps exaggerated by a 4-1 win over hapless Crawley. However, there have been six different scorers, George Miller among them, taking his season's tally to six. He and Kieran Agard have scored in tandem three times this season. Their away form is decent - two wins, draws and defeats - if not spectacular. Something to build on against a side unbeaten on their own turf, but with three draws from six. Another draw could ensue.
Second season syndrome biting Sutton hard
AFC Wimbledon 2.6413/8 v Sutton United 3.02/1; the draw 3.412/5
Matt Gray's Sutton have suddenly found the going a little sticky in League Two. It has been said the second season after promotion can be the toughest. Four straight defeats indicates as much. The last three without scoring. Opta point out they failed to score in just three of the previous 16.
As if matters were not bad enough, in their 2-0 defeat by Tranmere, Coby Rowe had three partners in central defence within the first 20 minutes. First, Louis John went off injured, then his replacement Aaron Pierre. Joe Kizzi switched inside from right-back and Endo Boldewijn was sent on to fill Kizzi's gap. They became further hampered when Will Randall, returning after missing the previous game through injury, suffered a recurrence and had to be substituted.
All this will surely boost hosts AFC Wimbledon, who have failed to look steady after relegation.
After losing Nathan Young-Coombes for several weeks towards the end of September, they were finally looking coherent when Harry Pell and Ethan Chislett earned them a 2-2 draw at Bradford.
They were only pegged back for a single point in injury time. They turned that pent up frustration into a win against Colchester, Josh Davison scoring twice, only to lose momentum with a disappointing 3-1 reverse at Walsall.
Maybe they could just sneak a win against an equally unconfident side.
Layers might be right to price a draw
Rochdale 2.89/5 v Barrow 2.8615/8; the draw 3.412/5
Jim Bentley might think that victory at Newport can give his Rochdale side another "positive week" like when they won at Colchester, in order to size up a win over Barrow. It is another opportunity, he believes to start turning Spotland into a fortress. That didn't happen before, though, because they lost to Doncaster - and they haven't actually won at home yet this season.
Scott Quigley, Jimmy Ball and Devante Rodney, the scorers in the past three games, know all too well that beating teams near the bottom or on downward form is one thing. They also both scored against Carlisle, in a 3-3 draw, in Bentley's first game. However, like Doncaster, breaking down teams with ambitions of promotion is far from easy. Leyton Orient and Northampton (who both defeated the Dale in their past six games) fall into that category, as do Barrow.
Equally, the Bluebirds' dip in form (not scoring in three straight defeats) came against Orient, ambitious Tranmere and Mansfield. Seven-goal top scorer Josh Gordon must be desperate to get his team back on track with a goal. He needs help net busting, with Ben Whitfield the next best on just three goals.
Peter Wild might fancy the visitors' chances of regaining ground on the top spots in the division (they were second just a few weeks ago). However, if the hosts continue to show any sort of resilience we might best be taking the hint from the layers who have these sides evenly matched and back the draw.
Layers might be right to price a draw
Stockport 2.01/1 v Grimsby 4.77/2; the draw 3.613/5
I can't be having Stockport as short as evens, especially against a Grimsby side who have won four times away.
The short price is a hangover from last season's successes, surely? Yes, Paul Challinor's men have scored in all but one League Two fixture. However, goals by the likes of Fraser Horsfall and Paddy Madden have not yet brought back-to-back league wins (Opta state they have not won two games in a row in the Football League since 2009 and haven't had consecutive clean sheets since 2008). They have won just three times in 12 games this season.
Grimsby also have a decent scoring return - netting in all but two games. Paul Hurst might have a few injury problems, but they still defeated Crawley 3-0. Peter Taylor has started to flourish in front of goal, with three in six matches. Top scorer Harry Clifton (4) needs to look over his shoulder. Having drawn their last away game at high-flying Salfords, I give them every chance of a big-priced victory here.