League One Tips: Two TV predictions and go for a Correct Score swing at the Mem

• Four out of six for our League One tipster last weekend

• Two live Sky games previewed for Friday and Saturday

• Alan Dudman has eight bets for League One and is playing a 33/1 Correct Score selection

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Defences to come out on top in Friday night TV starter

Portsmouth v Derby County
Friday 18th November, kick-off 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

A decent weekend last Saturday for the League One column with four from six winners and two winning draw selections. One equaliser came in the heated Bristol Rovers and Fleetwood match with the late strike to net the draw in the 99th minute. Apologies to those that went with Fleetwood, but it's nice when those ultra-late ones go for you rather than against you.

A double-header for League One this weekend and the Sky cameras and the atmosphere is sure to be red-hot at Fratton Park on Friday night for the evening kick-off with two of the best supported teams in the division. And I can testify following last weekend's League One fixture in Milton Keynes, as Derby had in the region of 6,000 there - which made life at the train station somewhat challenging.

There's nothing to separate these two sleeping giants as both have 28 points, although the Rams are in the process of a sea change and overhaul following the surprising recent appointment of Paul Warne. Personally I thought they should have given Liam Rosenior more of a chance and longer, but Warne's direct style has been successful in this division in the past with Rotherham, and it's almost as if the remit from the board was "get us back into the Championship with whatever style".

The draw trades at 3.613/5 for tonight's match and Derby the outsider of two at 3.211/5, but my first impression here is that the hosts look a little too short at 2.47/5. They are unbeaten at Fratton in their eight games, but they have drawn five and that's always a worry asking to back a team when the draws far outweigh the wins.

Derby negotiated their FA Cup replay recently with little problem and a 5-0 success against Torquay, although it was a game too late following the 2-2 in the first match. A non-league follower friend of mine made Derby a maximum bet considering how awful the Gulls have been in the National League this term, especially at the back. And he wasn't the only one left frustrated as I had tipped them to win comfortably too.

Warne was able to rest big duo Conor Hourihane and Nathaniel Mendez-Laing for the Torquay game, and expect a back four in a 4-2-3-1 from the Rams, who should go with two holding midfielders. Tom Barkhuizen is also fit again and should make the squad.

Portsmouth's problems are all in front of goal recently as from their last six matches they have failed to score more than one goal, and with Derby set to play the two holding midfielders, Warne knows how to set-up for these games as was witnessed with the defensive prowess of Rotherham last term.

Cowley might be using Denver Hume in a more attacking role tonight and he needs to change something to revitalise the attack, but they are sound at the back with just eight goals conceded at Fratton all season. However the Pompey boss has been struggling with injuries of late with Tom Lowery, Michael Jacobs, Joe Rafferty, Louis Thompson and Jayden Reid all sidelined, while skipper Clark Robertson, Zak Swanson and Ronan Curtis are a trio that need to be fit for tonight.

Cowley's makeshift defence at times has looked all at sea in big games, and the two goals conceded from set-pieces against Charlton has got to be a worry for this considering how Warne likes to play.

There are holes in both in short, but Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 18 home league games (W11 D7), with the last four ending level. They last drew five in a row at home back in October 1974 and that's enough to take me towards the back of the draw for this one, and I am also going to play the 1-1 on the Correct Score considering the run of those scorelines from Pompey's last six.

Playing the Bet Builder, Derby are F9 A6 on the road, so we can use the Under 2.5 Goals along with the Draw on this that pays out a decent 3.77277/100 for the double. Any more additions to that on the scoring lists could centre around David McGoldrick for the visitors, who is sure to play in a No 10 role and he's 21/10 to Score Anytime.

Braver options for the 1.5 and going under are understandable, as the xA for Pompey at home is 0.85 while Derby's xA is 1.24. Only Sheffield Wednesday (5) have conceded fewer away goals than Derby County (6) in League One this season, so there's another reason to go low.

KEY OPTA STAT: Derby County are unbeaten in their last four matches against Portsmouth in the Football League (W3 D1), while Pompey's last victory over the Rams was in the Premier League under Harry Redknapp in January 2008 (3-1).

Grecians can put on a good show against title-chasing Ipswich

Exeter City v Ipswich Town
Saturday 19th November, kick-off 12:00
Live on Sky Sports Football

Saturday's lunchtime game on Sky is an altogether more lop-sided market with Exeter at 5.14/1 and Ipswich available to back going into the weekend at a short 1.814/5. The Tractor Boys are gunning for the title but have been losing ground on leaders Plymouth of late, but the market for the League One Winner is still very much with Town at 2.26/5, while Argyle are still a generous 5.59/2.

The top three (that includes Sheffield Wednesday) are all very good defensively.

This is the first meeting in the Football League between Exeter City and Ipswich Town since a 2-1 victory for the Tractor Boys in April 1957, and Town are unbeaten in their last six matches against Exeter City in the Football League (W3 D3), while the Tractor Boys have scored two or more goals in their last five meetings with the Grecians.

There's not much leeway here with Kieran McKenna's team at 4/6 on the road, and I most certainly won't be playing the HT/FT market again following the recent FA Cup selection with Portsmouth on their travels, as backing a heavy odds-on short to explore winning both halves rarely works for me. It may for some.

Town's defence is better at Portman with just seven conceded, against the 12 away, and they have built up some impressive xG numbers this term with a home xG of 2.50 and 0.75 against, and while they are good when away at 2.02 and 1.16, they aren't quite as formidable.

Exeter are proving more than solid with Gary Caldwell at the helm, and it's been a fairly smooth transition since Matty Taylor left for the Rotherham job. They have five wins at home although Ipswich have earned more away points (20) and scored more away goals (20) than any other side in League One this season.

With the latter in mind, I quite like the angle of Both Teams To Score and the 'Yes' bet here. The 4/6 on the Sportsbook is just about acceptable as City's last three games have all been entertaining affairs at 3-2, 2-3 and 2-4. The live game on Sky saw the Grecians get off to a fantastic start at Home Park against leaders Plymouth in a very open game - no surprise for a derby. But Plymouth had their number with a tactical change in the second half and Caldwell's team couldn't really get the ball.

I am loath to tip Ipswich at such short odds while the Exeter +1 on the Asian Handicap at 1.9110/11 doesn't really excite me either.

With the BTTS bet in the bag, I am hoping for a brisk start and goals in the first 45. The Grecians have had 2+ goals in the first half in six of their seven games recently in League One and some of their interplay was excellent against Plymouth - who are usually so good at the back.

Jay Stansfield had a fine game against the Greens recently and with four goals I considered him to use in a Bet Builder as the 6/1 on offer for an Anytime Assist is good, and while his xG on asssists for that bet isn't the highest at 0.27, the price reflects that and his creativity might be able to have some joy in unlocking a good defence. Although Charlton certainly had a lot of fortune in the manic 4-4 with Town recently.

KEY OPTA STAT: Exeter City are looking to win consecutive league games for the first time since April, following their 3-2 victory against Peterborough last time out.

Go with goals again with Barton's Mem men

Bristol Rovers v Peterborough United
Saturday 19th November, kick-off 15:00

It almost feels like sacrilege going against my beloved Peterborough these days - as so often they have been the "go-to" guys in this league for goals. We got that last weekend, but also we successfully opposed them at Exeter and backed the hosts at 2.915/8 for one of the four winning selections seven days ago, and opposing them away from home has been a good tactic this season.

Grant McCann's team have now lost six on the road, and that is far from title-winning form and I think they look poor favourites for Saturday's trip to the Mem. The 2.35/4 on offer just doesn't cut it.

They recently conceded three at Wycombe and two at the MK Dons, and the Dons are hardly a goal threat these days at all. It's no surprise the BTTS on the Sportsbook is 4/7 for this, but with my inkling that Bristol Rovers can sneak a result here, I might go a bit brave for this one.

Posh chairman Darragh MacAnthony's Hard Truth podcast is always worth a listen, and I am huge fan of MacAnthony is no other chairman gives an insight to how a club is run and how they operate in the transfer market than him - and he is always outspoken. His recent comments that players need to be more durable and put their bodies on the line. He singled out Jonson Clarke-Harris for special praise with his attitude calling him a "proper man", while others no doubt might be feeling some of the criticism as the chairman said "My manager can very rarely name the same eleven for more than two games."

"Some of our players have to look at themselves and ask, are they putting their bodies on the line? Sometimes younger players listen to outside sources and even when scans say there's nothing wrong, they still feel sore and in a bit of pain so want to rest.

"We've got one player out with a bone bruise, which loads of footballers play with and he's getting external advice to take a rest for weeks," he added.

Their defensive problems were laid bare at Exeter last weekend - conceding goals on 86 and 90 minutes, which is now a big problem for Grant McCann. That's now 14 points dropped from winning positions and 12 of those points dropped have been on the road.

Joey Barton's Rovers have scored 14 and conceded 17, and are similar on the road with a 15 and 16 tally and haven't played out a single 0-0 all campaign. While I am not in the habit of laying Correct Score 0-0s at around 8.07/1, there are layers that do and it takes two to make a market. I would be staggered if this finished goalless. And Posh do have the best two number 9s in the league.

Rovers went toe-to-toe with Plymouth recently in a 2-2 at the Mem, and that's a Correct Score I like, and I might go with the 3-2 for good measure. Rovers have lost just one of their last eight league games (W3 D4). They've scored in all eight of these matches (16 goals), and have conceded in all but one of them (13 goals against), and are worth a little go as the outsider as Posh just look the wrong price.

And remember, with Posh's weakness in the final 15 minutes of games, it's worth considering laying some short prices in-play.

KEY OPTA STAT: None of Peterborough's nine away league games this season have been drawn (W3 L6), with the Posh yet to keep a clean sheet on the road so far this term.