League One Tips: Title credentials on the line again with big three in action

• Back Owls to keep marching on

• Greens to keep tabs on leaders

• Alan's six League One bets for Saturday

Wednesday form ominous for rivals

Ipswich Town v Sheffield Wednesday
Saturday 11th February, kick-off 15:00

Another weekend and another top-of-the-table clash featuring Sheffield Wednesday, who went top last Saturday with a narrow 1-0 success against Plymouth.

Wednesday are now odds-on for the title and trade at around 4/6 in the League One Winner Market on the Betfair Exchange.

Six points separate these two for Saturday and this looks a good time for the Owls to face Ipswich who are wobbling slightly with one victory from their last six games. Three of those finished 1-1 and that certainly would appeal for a trading bet at 6/1 on the Correct Score market.

Darren Moore's team have won each of their last six league games, with the Owls last enjoying a run of seven consecutive league victories as a Premier League club in February 1993. A clean sheet here would set a new club record of six successive Football League games without conceding.

That's a fairly ominous stat for Kieran McKenna's men, so it's hardly a shock under 2.5 Goals is available to back at a skinny 4/6.

I have plenty of time for Moore, who seems like a fine bloke to boot, but he's made Wednesday so tough to break down. His side have conceded just seven away from home all season, and I cannot remember the last time a side in League One had got to February holding such a strong defensive record.

The 1-0 win against Plymouth last Saturday highlighted how streetwise they are, something the Greens boss admitted after that 33,000 sell-out by saying: "We have pushed these all the way here. These are one of the strongest teams in the division, probably the most expensively-assembled squad in the division. I think today they played well."

Indeed, Peterborough chairman Darragh MacAnthony said this week that both the Owls and Plymouth are in a "league of their own" at the moment. High praise.

Callum Paterson scored the only goal in a match of few chances. Paterson is 9/2 on the Sportsbook for Anytime Goalscorer, although there's some fine attacking talent on show for this weekend with the likes of Lee Gregory and Conor Chaplin.

Ipswich's Freddie Ladapo has three goals in his last two league games, and could score in three consecutive league appearances for the first time since February 2020 (run of four). He is 7/2 First Goalscorer.

I am expecting a close one, especially with Town out of sorts. The xG numbers are telling for the visitors, as they are xA 1.25 all season and 1.36xA on the road, while Ipswich at 0.82 against at home is even better.

The under 2.5 looks a touch on the short side, but the Under 1.5 Goals at 3.309/4 is worth a play. For a Bet Builder using that and Wednesday to win pays around 9/1 on the Sportsbook.

Key Opta Stat: Ipswich are winless in their last five league games against Sheffield Wednesday (D2 L3), while the Tractor Boys have conceded at least once in each of their previous 17 league encounters with the Owls.

Greens to get back on track at the theatre

Plymouth Argyle v Portsmouth
Saturday 11th February, kick-off 15:00

Plymouth lost to their title-chasing rivals last weekend but they still look a good price this Saturday against Portsmouth at around 5/4.

Their home record is the best in League One with 13 wins and just one loss with 29 for and 11 against. That's superior to Wednesday and yet if the Owls were playing at home this weekend against Pompey they would be around 4/5 or shorter.

Thirty-six year-old John Mousinho has made the transition to manager well since taking over from the sacked Danny Cowley at Fratton Park and has got the side scoring again. Goals were such a problem under Cowley, but they've scored in each of their last four and gained a couple of 2-0 successes.

Mousinho has changed the style slightly and they are going slightly more direct at times into the striker, and he does have players coming back to full fitness with Zak Swanson close to a return having missed the Barnsley game last weekend.

They certainly have more energy these days, but Pompey have drawn three and lost five on the road and facing a Plymouth defence with an xA of 1.30 at home will be difficult with six clean sheets at Home Park.

The pair played out a 2-2 earlier in the season at Fratton, and Steve Schumacher said: "This season we felt we played well at there and they scored with the last kick of the game so that stung a little bit. Hopefully, we can put that right."

I don't think this will be as open as the reverse meeting. Eight of the last 11 Football League encounters between Plymouth and Portsmouth have been drawn, with the Pilgrims winning once and Pompey twice during that time according to Opta Stats. That's certainly a base to trade from given the close nature of the market this Saturday.

Schumacher will be keeping his fingers crossed that Dan Scarr's injury won't keep him out for a long period, although he suffered a huge blow with keeper Mike Cooper who suffered a serious injury. And plenty of scouts were keeping tabs on the excellent Cooper.

But I think the market has got Plymouth too big, and playing the 21/20 on the Sportsbook looks a sensible move. Portsmouth lost this exact fixture last season 1-0, not since March 1981 have they lost on successive Football League visits to Plymouth (run of three), and that is a runner in the correct score market.

Key Opta Stat: Only Lincoln (13) have drawn more games in League One this season than Portsmouth (11), though only three of those have come in away games (W5 L5).

Bolton underrated for Posh trip

Peterborough United v Bolton Wanderers
Saturday 11th February, kick-off 15:00

More promotion credentials are on the line at London Road this weekend, and Peterborough match-up against fellow play-off hopefuls Bolton, although with their improved form under the returning Darren Ferguson, Posh's price is back to the old days at 6/5.

Whatever you think about Fergie's return (again), it has worked with three wins on the spin against Port Vale, Forest Green and Portsmouth. Scoring five in those three games means they are back, but Bolton are excellent with their three-man defence and Fergie is well aware of the threat posed by Saturday's opponents.

He said: "I watched them a couple of times when I was out of the game and I was impressed. They are aggressive and they are expansive. They play with three centre-backs and they play the system very well."

Bolton are certainly underrated in terms of price at 21/10 on the Sportsbook. According to Opta, they have won each of their last three league games, while their 15 wins from their 30 games so far in 2022-23 is their most at this stage of a league season since 2016-17 (17), ending that campaign with promotion to the Championship.

Lest we not forget, Bolton are nine points ahead of the Posh (although they have played three more games).

However, digging a bit deeper into the Trotters away, their "draw column" here is enough to persuade me to play on the stalemate at 3.711/4 on the Betfair Exchange. That also gives a bit of leeway for the trade out as a back-to-lay.

Bolton have conceded only 15 on the road and boast an excellent home defence, so they'll need to keep Jonson Clarke-Harris quiet, who has led the line well this term and got his 18th of the season from 33 games with a penalty against Forest Green.

Interestingly, Posh had only four shots on target against one of the worst team's in the division which indicates how Fergie has tightened things up, and Bolton's xA figures at 1.18 (home) and 1.3 away are good enough to give us a chance of backing the draw.

Key Opta Stat: Peterborough have alternated between a defeat (4) and victory (3) in their last seven league games against Bolton, losing 1-0 to the Trotters in September.