League One Tips: Shrewsbury look overpriced for a Posh triumph

• Alan Dudman previews this Saturday's League One action with five bets including a Bet Builder 6/1 double

• Wednesday look good for a low-scoring win at home

• Shrewsbury travel to out of sorts Peterborough as the outsiders

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Manning gone, but Dons look a value bet for Saturday

Portsmouth v MK Dons
Saturday 17th December, kick-off 15:00

Last weekend's frustrations were by the bucket-load for the column, as Ipswich won but couldn't quite beat the +1 bet, while Accrington was called off. The killer blow though was backing Under 2.5 Goals, and the draw between MK Dons and Fleetwood was all on until another last minute goal enabled Fleetwood to gain the points in a 1-2.

Sometimes they go for you, and sometimes they go against you. We had a bit of luck with a 99th minute winner for Bristol Rovers in the last month, but there have been far too many late-scupperers of late.

According to Opta, Portsmouth have only won one of their last 10 league games (D6 L3), and could lose in successive league games for the first time since February. They look a dreadful price too at a shade of odds-on with the Exchange.

That defeat was enough for Pete Winkelman, who finally sacked Liam Manning as his team plummeted to 23rd in the division. Manning clearly had enough too as he went down fighting blaming the players. The summer transition of 14 out and 14 in has failed miserably, and goodness me how they could do with Scott Twine.

It's doom and gloom for Pompey too, as they just cannot score. From their last eight matches, seven have been Under 2.5 Goals and four have been 1-1. If you are looking to play the Correct Score bets, the 0-0 at 11.010/1 and 1-1 on the Exchange at 7.413/2 are most certainly worth considering. They played out a 0-0 at home with Derby and had just one shot on target.

Cowley is after some pace and attacking power in the upcoming transfer window, but for me the problem is the lack of creativity from midfield. They also need to improve their prowess from set-pieces. They are hamstrung with the rating of 10th in League One in terms of goals scored, but at least the figure of keeping them out is good - currently with an xA at home of 0.89.

The Under 2.5 is a fair enough price at 1.9210/11 as I thought it would be a little shorter, but I'm going to leave that alone and play on the Dons for a Draw No Bet option. The 3.185/40 is a price I like, and the Dons have been a little better on the road this term with three wins against their one at home.

KEY OPTA STAT: Having lost just one of their first seven league meetings with MK Dons (W4 D2), Portsmouth have lost each of their last three against them.

Wednesday can edge it at Hillsborough

Sheffield Wednesday v Oxford United
Saturday 17th December, kick-off 15:00

The betting for a Sheffield Wednesday home win at 1.748/11 indicates the strength of the Owls this weekend, and fully warranted too as they have won more home league games than any other side in the Football League in 2022 (17), while only in 1958 have they won more times in the league at home in a calendar year (18).

It's one defeat at Hillsborough all season although Oxford boss Karl Robinson has enjoyed plenty of success against the Yorkshire club in recent times.

The U's have drawn more than they have won and lost on the road this term (W3 D4 L3) and their last two games have both been 1-1.

Josh Murphy came off the bench for the final 15 minutes in their recent game with Accrington and Yanic Wildschut travelled with the squad too, so the pair's return has been a timely boost for Robinson. He does need that killer instinct from his players though, as too often this term they have controlled matches and have failed to kill the game off. Oxford are weakened when pressed high and they didn't create an awful lot against Accrington.

Wednesday are currently on a run of nine unbeaten, but have scored just three in their last four league matches with all four hitting the Under 2.5 Goals bet. That surprisingly trades at 2.021/1 for Saturday. However, Wednesday have the highest number of clean sheets in the division (11) - and that is a stat I like to use for a bet here.

The Sheffield Wednesday To Win By Exactly One Goal at 5/2 on the Sportsbook looks an outstanding bet, as they have some of the best firepower in the division - admittedly they have failed to find their form of late. Playing that with Both Teams To Score 'No' at around 6/1 on the Sportsbook Bet Builder is also of interest. Wednesday have not scored more than once in six of their last seven to add some lustre to the bet.

KEY OPTA STAT: Oxford manager Karl Robinson has won each of his last two league games against Sheffield Wednesday, one more than in his first six such encounters (W1 D3 L2).

Shrews can cause an upset as Posh continue to falter

Peterborough United v Shrewsbury Town
Saturday 17th December, kick-off 15:00

Despite Peterborough's wobbly form, they are still strong favourites at 2.01/1 for Saturday's home fixture against Shrewsbury, and while I am not one for creating too much pressure on managers, we are most certainly approaching "must win" grounds now for Grant McCann. Darragh MacAnthony said recently he wants certain players to start delivering value-for money performances and the co-owner is hardly one to be happy with the current state of affairs.

The Shrews won't be a pushover here and can certainly play on the nervousness amongst the home faithful if one or two errors creep into the Posh game. They don't score many away from Shropshire (nine goals scored away from home), but they keep it fairly tight too with just 10 conceded. They also beat Posh in the FA Cup last month 3-1, although McCann's side missed a hatful of chances early on.

Posh are far removed from being the old Posh at the moment and have lost each of their last four league games; they haven't had a longer such run in either the third or fourth tier of English football since March 2016 (5) according to Opta, and that is a major concern playing on a 2.01/1 favourite. I'd probably have them a little nearer to 2.35/4.

Shrewsbury have been in good form and have won their last three in all competitions and have lost just two in eight - both of those 1-0 defeats to Sheffield Wednesday and Oxford. They were a little unlucky too at Hillsborough as they conceded a goal from a set-piece and had enough chances in the second half to get something from the game. A replication of that performance makes them of interest at a much bigger price.

Jonson Clarke-Harris hasn't scored for three matches, and while the local paper did point to his limited game in certain areas, he is generally better at home and I don't want to let him go unbacked to Score Anytime this Saturday. Whether Jack Marriott starts alongside him is anyone's guess, as Marriott has been disappointing of late, but that's down to the 4-3-3 that clearly doesn't suit him. JCH has eight home goals this term, and we can back him at 7/5 for Anytime Score.

The Double Chance at 2.01/1 will do, and Steve Cotterill can increase a bit more pressure on McCann.

KEY OPTA STAT: Shrewsbury have won each of their last two league games, and could win three in a row for just the second time since the start of 2021, previously doing so in March of this year.