League One Tips: Gills look overpriced again for Oxford clash

Karl Robinson Oxford v Gillingham
Karl Robinson's Oxford face a tricky trip to Gillingham this Saturday

Alan Dudman's best bet won at 14/53.85 last Saturday, and our League One form man is back to preview three matches over two days - including Friday's Sky clash between Fleetwood and Hull...

"Perhaps there has been a fallout and knock-on effect from the playoffs. Oxford have started slowly, and they were finalists at Wembley."

Back Gillingham Draw No Bet @ 5/42.3 v Oxford

Hull can churn out win number five on Friday night

Fleetwood Town v Hull City
Friday 9th October, kickoff 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football and Sky Sports Main Event

It's been the perfect start to life in League One for Hull City, and with four straight victories and not a single goal conceded, it's not hard to see why they trade as favourites heading into Friday's night Sky TV encounter.

The away price of 13/82.62 is fair considering their clean sheet record, because if they aren't conceding, you'll always have a chance in terms of nicking a goal and winning.

Fleetwood are puzzling me at the moment. As one of the playoff teams from last season, they should be title contenders, but they've started poorly and are currently in a three-game losing streak, with two of those reverses against Rochdale and AFC Wimbledon - sides they would have expected to beat.

Joey Barton cap pre season 1280 .jpg

Cod Army boss Joey Barton wants reinforcements to his squad, and it might have to be at the back as they haven't recorded a shutout so far. They also have a knack of conceding very late goals. I still worry about Fleetwood's keeper Alex Cairns who was very shaky in the playoff semi-finals against Wycombe and made mistakes that cost his team.

The hosts will have plenty of the ball for this but I worry about their lack of a cutting edge - especially against a team with such a strong defensive record.

The Under 2.5 Goals bet looks overpriced to me at 21/202.04, as I see this as the sort of game Hull could win 1-0 or 2-0.

KEY OPTA STAT: Having lost each of their last three games in League One, Fleetwood could lose four matches in a row for the first since 2018.

Have Posh done enough so far to convince us?

Northampton Town v Peterborough United
Saturday 10th October, kickoff 15:00

Peterborough's record against Northampton is a good one. In recent seasons they have won four of their last five league away games, and on the face of it as one of the contenders for promotion, this should be a fairly straightforward task with Posh priced up at 20/211.95. But it doesn't always work out that way.

League One betting can often see an upset, plenty in fact, and Peterborough's away form worries me slightly, and I'm one of their fans for promotion.

With just two victories in their last 13 road games, it does dampen the enthusiasm for an away punt. And just with that punting instinct alone, this is the sort of match they have often lost in the past.

Keith Curle pre season 1280 .jpg

Keith Curle's Northampton are gaining a reputation for being over-physical, direct and robust, and they have managed a win on the road at Shrewsbury this season.

Posh actually played and defended quite well up at Sunderland in their 1-0 defeat, and Darren Ferguson liked their shape for a large part of that game. And whilst they have got the home performance results right (two wins at 2-1 and 3-1), there are still one or two holes in their form.

The hosts are a big price at 4.10, and with that, we can have a go at the Double Chance at those odds.

KEY OPTA STAT: Northampton are winless in their last eight versus Peterborough (D2 L6).

Evans' Gills look a value bet again as the outsider

Gillingham v Oxford United
Saturday 10th October, kickoff 15:00

Steve Evans' Gillingham done us a good turn recently with their 2-0 victory against Blackpool (a game they weren't favourites in), and they could be worth backing again as the outsider of two against Oxford at 2/13.05.

Results have suggested the Gills are picking up in terms of their league form, and with seven points, they sit well above the U's in the table at the moment.

Perhaps there has been a fallout and knock-on effect from the playoffs. Oxford have started slowly, and they were finalists at Wembley. Whilst Portsmouth and Fleetwood have stuttered too - but then Pompey always do at the beginning of a campaign.

Karl Robinson's side have won away from home this season with a big 1-4 at Accrington, but they were slightly flattered and two of the Matty Taylor goals were very late against 10-men.

The visitors didn't play last weekend due to a postponement, and I have often said that Oxford can be easy to play against as they enjoy possession, but often Taylor is isolated up front.

Gillingham played reasonably well in the home 0-2 loss to Hull earlier in the season, and they'll be happy to give up possession in this, just like they did against Blackpool with only 30% of the ball - yet they still won.

KEY OPTA STAT: Gillingham have been beaten just twice in their last 21 league matches (W9, D10).

*Click here to read Ian Lamont's betting previews for this weekend's League Two fixtures

Alan Dudman's League One P&L

2020/21: -+0.82pts

2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts

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