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League One Tips: Clarke-Harris leads Posh Bet Builder at 4/1

Alan Dudman
10 March 2023
4:00 min read

Darren Ferguson's Peterborough are still in the hunt for a play-off place

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Alan Dudman had a winning weekend last time out and has five bets for Saturday with MK Dons, Posh and Wycombe all featured in the preview...

Two out of three winners for Alan last week
Back his 4/1 Peterborough Bet Builder
Five selections for League One this weekend

Burton's defensive record points to a draw bet

Burton Albion v Wycombe Wanderers
Saturday 11th March, kick-off 15:00

New Wycombe boss Matt Bloomfield gained his first home win in midweek with a 2-0 success over Fleetwood. It was 72 hours too late for the column, though, as their Saturday 1-1 with Exeter let us down for the clean sweep of three winning selections.

The stats all point to an away win here, as the Chairboys have won each of their last four league meetings with Burton, this after having won four of their first 10 Football League clashes beforehand (L6).

The Brewers are a better team at home no doubt, and have lost just once in their last four at the Pirelli, but Wycombe are still in the hunt for a play-off spot and boast form of winning three of their last four on the road.

The visitors have a bit more quality in their team and Chem Campbell the on-loan Wolves man scored his first goal for the club since his loan switch in January, and has impressed Bloomfield with his ability.

Matt Bloomfield 1280 .jpg

Campbell is 3/1 to Score Anytime on the Sportsbook this weekend and his wing play along with the excellent Garath McCleary offers Wycombe a bit more in those dangerous wide areas. Veteran Sam Vokes, who scored on Tuesday, is an important player for Bloomfield in terms of leading the line and his hold-up play.

Indeed, he was described as the difference between Wycombe and Fleetwood on Tuesday as he led the line superbly.

Vokes is 5/1 for First Goalscorer and that was his sixth of the season.

Burton have lost only one of their previous 10 league fixtures at the Pirelli Stadium (W4 D5), keeping a clean sheet in their last three games (W2 D1). Not since October 2019 have they done so in four consecutive home games, and it's possible this could be scrappy.

The Under 2.5 Goals is probably the goals bet for this one, considering Burton's improved defensive form. The hosts have kept four clean sheets from their last five, and seven of the 10 home games in the run highlighted have all gone Under 2.5 Goals.

Albion might just be a little under-rated for this one, and while I don't think they can win, they are certainly good enough for the draw. Their home record of W5 D5 L6 would back up the bet. They've only scored 17 in 16 games at the Pirelli too.

Key Opta Stat: Wycombe have won three of their last four away league games (L1), although that loss was their most recent game against Shrewsbury (2-0). Not since September earlier this season have they lost consecutive league games on the road.

Back The Draw @

21/10

Strugglers to play out a draw

MK Dons v Cambridge United
Saturday 11th March, kick-off 15:00

With MK Dons' new manager Mark Jackson struggling to convince that he's the man for the job - in my opinion, anyway - will they be looking at Karl Robinson for another hurrah after he was sacked by Oxford?

The Buckinghamshire club were up to their old tricks again in midweek. They lost at Port Vale 1-0, only managing one shot on target, and have scored just once in their last three games.

It's been their Achilles' heel all season, and Jackson said on Tuesday: "There's a nervousness about where we are and when a team get momentum on us, it takes us a while to get that back, and it knocks the stuffing out of us. We have to find a way of dealing with that."

Cambridge are poor themselves and have scored just 11 goals all season on the road. Mark Bonner, however, has revived the spirit of John Beck at the club as they are a direct team and play long. A contrast of styles for Saturday if ever there was one.

This has the potential to be a shocker. The U's haven't scored away in their last four games and face a team who have been terrible at home all season and hardly created a shot in anger.

It's hardly the shock of shocks that the Under 2.5 on the Exchange is at 1.684/6, but that has the ability to contract nearer to kick-off. I don't usually like the Under 1.5 Goals, but the Sportsbook offers 21/10 and that looks a goer.

Outright, I am firmly with the draw. Both clubs are on 30 points, and both dare not lose at second and third-from-bottom, and it's not as if either make a case to back them outright.

The xG numbers for both paint a sorry picture. Cambridge have recorded 1.08 xG away from this season, and the Dons are just 1.18 xG. This looks as bleak as the skyline from the station so any Bet Builders on the Sportsbook should involve a low-scoring game.

Back The Draw MK Dons v Cambridge United

9/4

Under 1.5 and the draw pays around 7/1 for the double.

KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons are without a win in their previous six league games (D2 L4); it's their longest run in the Football League since failing to win eight successive fixtures between February and October 2020 (D3 L5).

Posh odds-on so play 4/1 Bet Builder

Peterborough United v Cheltenham Town
Saturday 11th March, kick-off 15:00

Peterborough are one of the shortest home prices this weekend at 8/15, and while it isn't quite tipping up Constitution Hill to win the Champion Hurdle at 1/4 at the Cheltenham Festival next week, this should in theory be one of the most straightforward predictions while we're on the Cheltenham theme.

It's a shame we have such a short price, though. On both.

Cheltenham have never won a Football League away game at Peterborough in four attempts (D1 L3), with this their first since a 1-1 draw in April 2009. That's as damning as it gets if you fancy the shock for this weekend. And we have the Robins who possess the worst scoring record in the division.

Posh found something different on Tuesday night, and they won ugly against an in-form Shrewsbury. They dominated possession against Steve Cotterill's team, and managed a late winner on 87 minutes thanks to Frankie Kent.

"We did it on Tuesday against a really resilient side in Shrewsbury. We played some good football, particularly in the first-half, and, although the second-half was more even, we deserved to win," said Fergie after the three points. The win still keeps alive their play-off chances.

Cheltenham's Alfie May has scored 10 of Cheltenham's 26 League One goals this season, and if Posh can nullify the dangerman (which hasn't always been the case with them), they can cover the handicap for this one, as they have far too many goal threats.

Posh also struggle against top-half teams and those in play-off spots, but they have 11 home wins and an excellent home xG figure of 1.87.

Is it time for Fergie to unleash Kabongo Tshimanga? The forward has been used as a substitute since arriving from Chesterfield, and as a goalscorer, he might have a few opportunities this weekend if he starts. Him alongside Jonson Clarke-Harris would excite me.

JCH has been superb this season, often playing with injury and leading the line. His 21 in 40 appearances puts him bang in line for another Anytime Goalscorer bet, especially against a team with an xA of 1.77.

Backing him to score first with the 8/15 is an option to boost a price for a multiple, and that we we can play Posh to win their 12th home match of the season to keep alive their play-off hopes.

Peterborough dominated the ball against Shrewsbury and found possession quite easy with plenty of movement in midfield. Ferguson might be tempted here to play the wing-back system that he used as a tactical switch in midweek as it gave the forward Clarke-Harris more support.

Back Peterborough & Jonson Clarke-Harris First Goalscorer @

4/1

KEY OPTA STAT: Peterborough are unbeaten in four Football League games against Cheltenham (W3 D1), and are looking to complete a double over them in a Football League campaign for a very first time.