Alan Dudman had two out of three winners last weekend and was denied a clean sweep with a late goal. His three bets for League One this Saturday include backing the draw with Sunderland......
"Using the Opta stats, it might pay to follow the draw again at 9/43.25 as four of the last seven league matches between these two have ended in a 1-1 scoreline."
Expect a game of few goals, so back the draw in MK
MK Dons v Lincoln City
The MK Dons denied the column a clean sweep of winning bets last weekend with an 88th minute equaliser at Doncaster, although looking at the reports for the match, Russell Martin's side had plenty of the ball and missed a couple of great chances.
There was plenty of cheer for Lincoln last Saturday as Michael Appleton's new-look team hit their straps immediately with a 0-2 win at last season's playoff finalists Oxford.
The Imps produced an excellent rearguard action to soak up plenty of pressure, and it seems that many teams are now working out how to play Karl Robinson. Lincoln had a mere 37% of the ball last weekend at home, but they were efficient on the counter-attack to score twice. They could face a similar sort of test against the Dons, as they're another team that enjoy plenty of possession.
I worry about the hosts and their lack of cutting edge, so I am not surprised to see the Under 2.5 Goals trade at 8/111.74, which is a shame, as I wanted to put that up as a bet.
The market is split between the two fairly evenly. I don't want to be backing MK at all at 6/4 at any stage this season, whilst the price on Lincoln at 9/52.8 is a little on the short side. The Draw is the bet here at the prices, so we'll take the 9/43.25 in a game that could be a low-scoring affair.
KEY OPTA STATS: MK Dons have won only one of their last four league matches against Lincoln, conceding in each of these contests. Lincoln are looking to win three in a row for the first time since the opening three league games last term.
U's and Black Cats could cancel each other out
Oxford United v Sunderland
Reading the reports in the local press from Sunderland's opening 1-1 against Bristol Rovers, it seems the same old problems are still haunting the Black Cats. A point cannot be sniffed at, but as one of the bigger teams looking for promotion, Phil Parkinson wanted his men to get on the front foot with points immediately. And draws have been the currency for Sunderland in the last two seasons.
Over two campaigns (and one shortened), the Mackems have drawn 30 times. And there lies the Achilles' heel.
Indeed, using the Opta stats, it might pay to follow the draw again at 9/43.25 as four of the last seven league matches between these two have ended in a 1-1 scoreline. That bet incidentally can be taken on the Correct Score market at 5/16.2.
Oxford's frustrations have been spelt out already following their opening day defeat, and in my opinion, they're a team that are easy to play against. Forward Matty Taylor is a grand player, but he is often too isolated whilst the U's tap the ball around. They look great in possession, but they do very little with it. Hence why Lincoln counter-attacked them to earn the points.
This could be a game where both are wised-up to each other, so the Draw looks the sensible bet at 9/43.25.
KEY OPTA STAT: Sunderland have lost on only one of their last 10 away trips to Oxford (W5 D4), with a current unbeaten run of six games.
Addicks can make it two-out-of-two
Charlton Athletic v Doncaster Rovers
Charlton were up-and-running last Saturday in the division following their relegation from the Championship, and they look good value to add to their 2-0 win at Crewe.
Manager Lee Bowyer will be hoping for a resolution soon regarding the takeover talk, but in truth, Bowyer has been dealing with the off-the-field issues well for a long time.
On the pitch, he was left slightly disappointed despite the Alex win, citing that they can play a lot better. One aspect that pleased him was the performance of 17-year-old Charlie Barker on debut at right-back, and it looks as though the Addicks have a good one there.
Doncaster were frantic and sloppy in possession last weekend, and it was a surprise that the MK Dons and their organisation were good enough to earn a point. Darren Moore's side still look a work in progress and they have a dreadful record on the road at the Valley - losing and failing to score in five of their last six visits. At the prices, Charlton could have too much for them this weekend. I also like the hosts to Win To Nil bet and the 'Yes' back at 3.55.
KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have won seven of their last 11 league matches against Rovers.
Alan Dudman's League One P&L
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts
Back The Draw @ 9/43.25 MK Dons v Lincoln City
Back The Draw @ 9/43.25 Oxford United v Sunderland
Charlton to beat Doncaster @ 6/52.18