League One Tips: Barton's Rovers can deliver goals again this Saturday

• League One leaders in action this Saturday

• A 5/1 Sportsbook Bet Builder at Cambridge

• Alan Dudman previews the latest fixtures in League One this weekend with four bets

A defensive lesson in store at the University Of Bolton

Bolton Wanderers v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 7th January, kick-off 15:00

A bizarre Christmas period, and usually the non-stop nature of the fixtures throws up some strange results, but Morecambe scoring five against Burton was the most unexpected news in these quarters. Danny Cowley was sacked at Portsmouth, which wasn't a surprise, while Darren Ferguson has gone back to Peterborough to replace Grant McCann. That wasn't a surprise either.

Ferguson seems to be on some sort of bungee or velcro attachment to London Road.

A somewhat threadbare fixture list due to FA Cup games elsewhere involving League One sides, but Bolton and Plymouth is a cracker of a match to look forward to, and the Greens once again done the business at odds-on for the column on New Year's Day amongst some otherwise bleak results.

If ever a fixture screamed a 0-0, or certainly an Under 2.5 Goals game - this is it. I was amazed to see that market as the outsider in the Unders market at 1.9620/21, and that's a bet in my eyes as no side has kept more home clean sheets in League One this season than Bolton (8), the same total they kept in the 2021-22 campaign. Plymouth have an exceptional defensive record at Home Park with just nine conceded, and while they have been more open on the road with 17 shipped in, defences could dominate this one.

Ian Evatt's team are on a fair run with just one defeat since the beginning of November, while Plymouth are four points clear at the top of the table, and a further victory here will put them in a great position to kick on in the new year. Argyle are still 5.49/2 to back in the League One winner market.

The Greens enjoyed a superb festive period with three wins out of three - they kept two clean sheets too in that min-run, only losing a goal to MK Dons on New Year's Day with a 3-1 triumph.

Bolton may have scored three at Barnsley to see in the New Year, but I am more interested in their two games previously - both 0-0 and 1-1 Derby and Lincoln. "If you can't win you don't lose, especially in this type of game where there is a six-point swing if you lose. We'll just dust ourselves down and go again at Lincoln," said Evatt after the Derby stalemate, and his team done well against Paul Warne's high-press and energetic game. They just lacked some composure in front of goal, but Derby are 13 unbeaten and it was a solid point.

Plymouth at 3.5551/20 surely are too big here? My only explanation is that Stephen Schumacher's team have drawn five (as many as the wins) this term away, and these big games at the top are often very close with neither wanting to cede too much ground on the other.

The draw looks a good trade here, and Bolton will have to replicate what Cheltenham did recently against Plymouth to restrict them to just three shots. The 0-0 and 1-1 are certainly worth more than a cursory glance on the Exchange, as getting to half-time with both means we can lay off the stake and get out of the bet. Plymouth are unbeaten in each of their last 10 away league games (W5 D5), the current longest such streak in League One, and while the away price is decent enough, I like the draw for this one.

KEY OPTA STAT: Bolton have lost each of their last three Football League games against Plymouth, failing to score each time, only once between February 1966 and December 1967 have they lost more consecutive league games against the Pilgrims (run of four).

Kennedy's Imps overpriced for Valley trip

Charlton Athletic v Lincoln City
Sunday 7th January, kick-off 15:00

Charlton are a maddening team. Every so often they produce a result to suggest they are back, only to revert to mediocre ways. Consistency is not their strong point.

I've really struggled to get to grips with the Addicks this term, and while they are still floating around the relegation places in 17th position, I cannot entertain them at odds-on for Saturday's game against Lincoln. It's such a poor price.

This looks heavily influenced by their New Year's Day 1-3 at Portsmouth - but Pompey are horrendous at the moment and it was a result that ultimately cost Danny Cowley his job on the coast, it also appears an impossible job too there - and Charlton's wouldn't be too far behind. The three points on that occasion were the Londoners first maximum in nine games, so at least new boss Dean Holden (pictured) is up and running with his first win in the new job.

Lincoln are a very dangerous opponent this weekend. They are boom or bust on the road with four wins and six losses, but they don't draw many and are a couple of places above the Addicks in the table. Lincoln boss Mark Kennedy will no doubt get a decent reception as a former Millwall player (I jest), but his team earned two fine 1-1s over the New Year against Bolton and Ipswich - big outsiders in the betting in both, and big outsiders here at 4.47/2. They are very much draw specialists at home - earning stalemates from 10 of their last 12 at the LNER, and that makes them hard to beat.

Charlton's xG output is poor at home with just 1.21 xG at the Valley. Lincoln's xG away is even worse, by some way at 0.69xG, so there's a strong case to be made for going with a low-scorer here. Especially as the hosts have won only one of their last five Football League games against Lincoln (D1 L3), though that victory was at home in May 2021 (3-1).

The away price at 4.47/2 on the Exchange is very attractive, and it's big enough to go Double Chance here. If you are looking for Bet Builder play, backing the Draw and Under 2.5 Goals pays out 3.6466/25 on the Sportsbook. Jack Diamond excelled in the Ipswich game with his work-rate, although the defence did leave some space in behind against the Tractor Boys. But Charlton are nowhere near that level.

KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton are winless in five home league games (D2 L3), last enduring a longer winless home run in February 2021 (8).

Collins out for goal number 14 this term

Cambridge United v Bristol Rovers
Sunday 7th January, kick-off 15:00

If ever a game presents a clash of styles - this is it. Joey Barton's Bristol Rovers play on the floor, possession and keep the ball. Cambridge and their direct play, don't.

The Gas were 2-1 winners at the Mem earlier in the season and that was the match that marked Middlesbrough loanee Josh Coburn's goal on League One debut. He was assisted by Aaron Collins that day, and Collins is enjoying a brilliant campaign with 13 goals and 10 assists. Barton said post-match that day: "They keep competing, they've come out of League Two and solidified in League One with 16 points on the board already and they're well versed in what they do and they compete."

The well-versed bit was aiming at their long-ball, which was quite polite for Barton.

However, Rovers can have a bit panache and play with style when they get it right, and they are entertaining too with 40 scored and 42 conceded. Goals came in their droves over their three games from Christmas and New Year with 2-1, 1-2 and 3-4. Over 2.5 Goals layers won't be taking any chances with this in terms of laying the price of and I cannot see the 1.9720/21 lasting as the first price up on Friday morning with barely any liquidity - I would make it more of a 1.84/5 shot.

As the Bristol Post pointed out this week; only two teams - Burton Albion and Forest Green Rovers - have conceded more than their 41 goals against. And Burton and Forest Green are dreadful.

I like the angle of going with Collins here on the Sportsbook, and as Barton as said, his attacking unit is good enough to get promoted, it's the backline that is causing him the most headaches. Rovers to win at 2.3611/8 is perhaps a little short, so playing Aaron Collins to Score Anytime on the Sportsbook at 2/1 will do. We can use him in a Bet Builder too with Over 3.5 Goals, and that pays out a generous 6.29529/100.

KEY OPTA STAT: Bristol Rovers have both scored and conceded in each of their last six away league games - they last had a longer such run in November 2009 (8 games).