EFL League One & League Two

Saturday's League One Tips: Back the McKenna magic to continue for Pride Park crunch clash

  • Alan Dudman
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Ipswich Town manager Kieran McKenna
Kieran McKenna's Ipswich are going for their seventh straight win on Saturday

Alan Dudman has four bets for this weekend's League One fixtures and previews the huge game between Derby and Ipswich...

  • Alan Dudman's latest League One tipsheet has four bets for this weekend

  • Ipswich motoring in bid for another win

  • Back a low scorer at Fratton Park


MK turning the corner but go low on goals

Wycombe Wanderers v MK Dons
Saturday 1st April, kick-off 15:00

League One results of late have been topsy-turvy to say the least. Backers of the short odds for Sheffield Wednesday had a big shock in midweek with a 2-2 at Cheltenham, but that didn't compare at all to the most surprising result this season when the Owls went down 1-0 at Forest Green.

How the best team in the division (by some way) lost to the worst is as perplexing a scoreline you will find.

One constant however this term has been the MK Dons and their inability to score - or least be involved in a low-scoring affair. Another 1-0 result last weekend has nudged them further up the table in their bid to stave off relegation, but I don't expect a classic here.

Wycombe have been a bit patchy of late with an inconsistent run under the new manager Matt Bloomfield but their home record at Adams Park is solid enough to make them a bet here at around 1.9620/21 on the Exchange.

Matt Bloomfield 1280 .jpg

They have collected 10 wins at home and conceded only 18 - which is on a par with Barnsley at Oakwell, and it will be the first taste of derby action for the 39-year-old Bloomfield in a match that still holds some significance in terms of both of their positions in the table.

His opposite number Mark Jackson has won six of his 17 games so far, but crucially, five of their last six have gone 1-0 either way - with Under 1.5 Goals backers in clover.

The Under 1.5 Goals is certainly an option here if you are looking to play on the Bet Builder too at 12/5, although the Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 is an excellent price - as I thought it would be shorter.

Wycombe gained a 0-1 win at Stadium MK earlier in the season, and in typical fashion too with hardly any of the ball with just 37% possession stats - and a game where the Dons had just one short on target.

MK Dons have only lost one of six Football League visits to Wycombe (W3 D2), a 3-2 defeat in August 2019. They won this exact fixture last season 1-0, and I respect they are in form with three victories on the spin - almost unheard of from what we've seen of them thus far.

But the safe option here is to play the Under 2.5 Goals. I also like the Wycombe price -1 on the Corner Handicap market at 10/11. They had 12 to Barnsley's 1 recently,

KEY OPTA STAT: Wycombe are looking to complete a league double over MK Dons for the first time in the Football League, having won this season's reverse meeting 1-0 in October.

Back Under 1.5 Goals Wycombe v MK Dons @

12/5

Under 2.5 Goals for Fratton encounter

Portsmouth v Forest Green Rovers
Saturday 1st April, kick-off 15:00

The one constant in League One is a team's inability to back up a shock win with another victory, and while Forest Green collected their first success under Duncan Ferguson, I cannot see them repeating the trick at Fratton Park.

Jordon Garrick earned the points last Sunday for Rovers, and Ferguson still believes they can avoid relegation. Although the 1.021/50 to back in the Relegation Market tells you a slightly more realistic version.

Duncan Ferguson 1280.jpg

"We created the more chances, the better chances, we should have been two or three up but the boys were absolutely fantastic today," said the big Scot after his first win.

Portsmouth were very frustrating for the column last weekend in a 2-2 with Port Vale. Having tipped Colby Bishop for Goalscorer, it was Vale who took an early lead, and Bishop netted from the spot in the second half. Vale, often so open, suddenly were as resolute as Dr Faustus.

Opta says that each of Portsmouth's last three league wins have come away from home. After winning three in a row at home in February, they are since winless in two such games (D1 L1), and while I think they will win this, the 1/2 price on the Sportsbook does nothing for me.

I am tempted to use Bishop again for Anytime Scorer at 13/10 on the Sportsbook as he has 23 goals in 44 games and is in a team that are creating more under John Mousinho.

Their xG is also 1.50 at home and Pompey have scored 30 at home this season.

Rovers are one of the lowest scorers on the road this term with just 11, and with Marlon Pack back in contention after injury for the hosts, I like them for this, although Joe Piggott sits out again with his third game of a three-match suspension.

It's been eight wins in 14 for Pompey but last weekend was their shakiest performance to date under Mousinho, but I am hoping they can get back on track and the Under 2.5 Goals at 20/23 looks the safest option given Forest Green's dreadful goals return.

KEY OPTA STAT: After winning their first game of the season, away to Bristol Rovers, Forest Green are yet to pick up another away victory in League One this season, drawing seven games and losing 11.

Back Under 2.5 Goals Portsmouth v Forest Green @

20/23

McKenna enjoying a superlative run for title charge

Derby County v Ipswich Town
Saturday 1st April, kick-off 15:00

With Sheffield Wednesday's recent loss of form, Ipswich will be sensing the chance of automatic promotion - as they are four points behind the second-placed Owls with a game in hand and five behind the leaders Plymouth.

Ipswich are 3.613/5 in the Winner Market and 1.564/7 for Promotion.

Derby have hit a wobble at precisely the wrong time, and have won just once in their last five games. They head into the weekend with successive 2-0 losses against Fleetwood and Peterborough.

Manager Paul Warne has come under criticism for the first time since taking the job six months ago. His game management has been questioned and their usual intensity had deserted them at Posh last week, who suddenly found their own form in a big game.

Ipswich won this season's reverse meeting with Derby 1-0 in October, and last completed a league double over the Rams in 2009-10 in the Championship under Roy Keane, and they are in serious nick at the moment with six straight wins. And so they should, their squad includes some terrific talent and they've spent big.

Warne's hands have been somewhat tied in the transfer market, but Kieran McKenna has had no such worries and he was backed to the max in the transfer window.

Ipswich have been dispatching teams for fun of late, with a couple of 4-0 hammerings against lowly pair Forest Green and Burton, but most impressive has been their defence - they've kept six successive clean sheets too in the run.

They have some sublime xG numbers too this term. At home they are 2.31 and xA of just 0.80. Away they are 2.12 and xA 1.10.

I am slightly mindful of Warne's ability to play the "big game", as he usually keeps it tight and doesn't give much away, but it's hard to ignore the form of the Tractor Boys.

They have scored 18 goals without reply, so the price of 23/20 makes a lot of sense, and one I'll be taking.

Backing the BTTS 'No' makes a lot of sense too given Ipswich's stunning run of clean sheets, and that bet covers the Warne angle with the way he likes to keep big games tight.

KEY OPTA STAT: Derby have lost consecutive league matches, failing to score in either game. The Rams have never previously lost three consecutive league games in the third tier or below.

Back Ipswich to beat Derby County @

23/20

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Alan Dudman's League One P & L

2022-23: -6.43pts

2017-22: +44.79

*advised to a 0.5pt stake

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Alan Dudman

Alan is a long term member of the Betting.Betfair team and has been a broadcaster and writer for over 20 years.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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