League One Tips: Back another 1-1 for draw specialists Charlton

Cotterill should take something from Cheltenham return

Cheltenham Town v Shrewsbury Town
Saturday 1 October, kick-off 15:00

The Steve Cotterill derby between Cheltenham and Shrewsbury already looks a 'must-win' game for the hosts, whose home form makes them vulnerable here at 2.89/5, and it's entirely understandable the visitors are just about trading as favourites at 2.68/5, and I don't see them changing positions.

They also have a dreadful record against the Shrews, as according to Opta, Cheltenham have won just one of their last 11 Football League meetings with Shrewsbury (D3 L7), although that victory was in this exact fixture last season (2-1).

The Robins have lost their defensive nous, conceding eight in four games at Whaddon Road. With just one victory and only two wins all season, they are already looking like relegation candidates in 20th. Wade Elliott's team are currently 2.01/1 in the relegation market - and I don't think that's the worst bet in the world.

Cotterill's Shrewsbury look as though they are over-achieving in eighth position but, with F6 A4 on the road with two wins, Cheltenham will be mindful of picking up least a point and make this as tight as possible. It's how the market is seeing this too, as Under 2.5 Goals trades at 1.695/7 and there's little value in that.

Playing that bet and the draw outright makes appeal on the Sportsbook using a Bet Builder option and that pays out 3.39/4 for the pair.

Cotterill seems to have a bit more depth and versatility in the squad this season and they have beaten Forest Green and Wycombe on the road this term with goals from four different scorers.

They tend to play very much on the counter-attack, but with the hosts and their low home xG of just 1.13, they might be able to nick something and look good for a Draw No Bet option. Shrewsbury's xG away from home is just 1.18, so the Under 1.5 Goals could be the one at a bigger price.

Key Opta Stat: Cheltenham have won three of their last 17 league games (D5 L9) although they did win their last home match 2-1 against Cambridge United, having lost their previous four at the Completely-Suzuki Stadium.

Addicks look too short with lowly league position

Charlton Athletic v Oxford United
Saturday 1 October, kick-off 15:00

I had laid down a marker with Charlton in my ante-post preview as I didn't fancy them at all under Ben Garner - a manager I am yet to be convinced about. Despite a fair enough start, they are drawing too many games and are down in 16th.

Indeed, both of these are not where many expected, as Oxford, so often reliable for a playoff position are even lower in 19th.

Four years into his tenure, Karl Robinson might be feeling a little pressure too, as the new owners of Anindya Bakrie and Erick Thohir have struck a 51% deal to take control of the club. At least Robbo has four players on the way back with Matt Taylor, Sam Baldock, Josh Taylor and Elliott Moore all returning from injury to boost their option.

It's hard to fancy either team. I don't like Charlton's price at all at 2.26/5 with two home wins and two losses, while Oxford have lost three of their four and scored just twice on the road. United have lost six of their last eight away league matches (W2) and haven't kept a clean sheet in any of their last 10 on the road (15 conceded), and that stat alone from Opta hardly puts confidence into a bet.

Charlton historically have won just one of their last 10 Football League encounters with Oxford United (D4 L5), a 2-0 victory in October 2020. I would favour the draw outright for this one, a bet I like with two out of form teams. Backing at 3.4549/20 also gives scope to trade out but Charlton have drawn five times this term - with four 1-1s and that's worth a play to at around 7.06/1 in the Correct Score market.

Key Opta Stat: All three of Oxford's away wins against Charlton in the Football League have come in their last five trips (W3 D1 L1), including their most recent game there in February, a 4-0 victory.

Case to be made that Owls should be odds-on

Port Vale v Sheffield Wednesday
Saturday 1st October, kick-off 15:00

Last weekend I couldn't have been more emphatic about opposing Port Vale, as Peterborough looked an outstanding bet at 1.9720/21 to win. Win they did, 3-0 and we also landed the Handicap bet and Bet Builder with Jonson Clarke-Harris scoring twice.

Sheffield Wednesday have won three on the road this term and conceded just twice in their four games, and there is an argument to say they should be shorter than 2.0421/20. Darrell Clarke's Valiants have had some relatively easy fixtures on their own patch so far, but their key game against leaders Portsmouth was a 0-1 loss.

Darren Moore's team have the most goals for a home team with 14 at Hillsborough, but I really like their three clean sheets in four away from home. Clarke admitted post-Peterborough that his team were facing multi-million pound players, and there's no let up as Wednesday have a hefty wage bill and a lot of Championship class players.

Vale's defending saw them concede some soft ones, and their aggressive in your face style should come up short here.

Port Vale have won just one of their last five league games (D2 L2), although it did come in their most recent game at Vale Park against Shrewsbury (2-1) and even the near 3/1 price isn't tempting at all.

Key Opta Stat: Sheffield Wednesday have won their last two away League One matches, and the Owls are looking for three wins in a row on the road for the first time since April 2017 under Carlos Carvalhal.