League One Saturday Tips: Rotherham to keep rolling at Plymouth

Black Cats need nine lives against Latics

Wigan Athletic v Sunderland
Saturday 26th February, kick-off 15:00

We'll go straight in with an Opta stat on Sunderland, who are without a win on the road in the league in their last five games (D3 L2), while they haven't gone six league games away from home without a victory since March 2018 when they were in the Championship (D2 L4).

The market has evened itself up as the 1.794/5 price on the Black Cats was quite frankly ridiculous on Tuesday. It was a good night for the column with a Correct Score bet at 10.09/1 landed, and we almost got the Burton win at The Stadium Of Light at 5.59/2. A 93rd minute goal levelled it at 1-1, and while part of me berated myself for not laying Alex Neil's team, we got a decent run from the Brewers - who traded at 1/16 in the closing stages.

At the moment, the Wearsiders shouldn't be going off at odds-on at home, and while 4.03/1 is a big price, and probably the biggest they have been for a while, Wigan should have far too much if they can replicate their fine performance last Friday at league leaders Rotherham - a game that didn't disappoint in the frothy billing.

Wigan were superb in the first-half, and they took the game to Rotherham. For a match between two of the best defences in the division, the football was of a high quality. Leam Richardson went attacking; fielding three forwards and two wingers and a back-three and took the lead through Stephen Humphrys - who scored his sixth of the season. He's really found his shooting boots since the turn of the year. Paul Warne's side came out strong in the second-half, but it was a brilliant game, proving both are miles ahead of their rivals.

They backed up the performance on Tuesday (gone are those Tuesday failures) with a 1-3 against freefalling Wycombe. Their crossing and width again was evident and they are the best practitioners of wing play in the league. Wanderers boss Gareth Ainsworth said afterwards: "We played worse teams than that in the Championship as they are a good side.

"The likes of James McClean and Will Keane are ex Premier League players and I'm not as disappointed as I was Saturday."

The hosts have lost just three times at the JJB this term and have one of the best defensive home records. Sunderland have conceded a massive 33 on the road and I can't even get excited about backing them at 3/1. The Keaton-esque performance against Doncaster is still in the mind.

KEY OPTA STAT: Wigan are unbeaten in each of their last seven league games at the DW Stadium (W5 D2), their longest home unbeaten run in the Football League since their final eight such games of the 2019-20 campaign (W5 D3).

Millers to preserve their astonishing defensive record

Plymouth Argyle v Rotherham United
Saturday 26th February, kick-off 15:00

Another fixture list and another chance to back Rotherham and from Tuesday; another win and clean sheet. Their run from a defensive point of view is phenomenal; with seven clean sheets in their last eight, they continue to cultivate their reputation as the toughest of all opponents. The only goal they have conceded recently in that run was to Wigan, so the task in store for Plymouth looks arduous.

Trying to score against Paul Warne's side is as difficult as grasping water. Away from home they have conceded just five all season so there's no reason to deviate from the Rotherham To Win To Nil market again. It's becoming a good friend of late. The initial price up with hardly any liquidity was 3.259/4, which looks generous, and while I anticipate that price to shorten with more activity in the market, it still looks the right bet.

They backed-up on Tuesday to readily brush aside Morecambe 2-0 at the New York thanks to a brace from Freddie Ladapo - and he's now 15 in 34 alongside Michael Smith (who was kept quiet at Wigan), who has 21 in 39. Smith has only scored once in his last six, but Ladapo's first-half double was crucial as Morecambe bombed high balls in and were denied time and time again by Millers keeper Josh Vickers.

Warne apparently delivered a "few home truths", but he also admitted Morecambe gave them the hardest game they have had all season at home. That's some praise considering their manager Stephen Robinson had left for St Mirren prior to the game.

Stephen Schumacher saw his team's five-game unbeaten run come to an end at Cambridge in midweek, and while they played well in possession, they set-piece delivery let them down.

The hosts will have more of the ball as they dominate the possession stats, and in fifth place, they have play-off pretensions of their own. But Rotherham have won each of their last four away league games by an aggregate of 10-0 - they haven't won five in succession since April 2009, while they've never previously done so in the Football League without conceding, but I'll be backing them to do so. Ladapo might be worth a look with the Sportsbook Betbuilder with 6/4 To Score and Rotherham To Win 19/20, that pays 3.34117/50 in the double.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth have lost five of their last seven Football League games against Rotherham (W1 D1), as many as they had lost in their previous 29 such games (W16 D8 L5).

Inconsistent Imps worth opposing

Lincoln City v Gillingham
Saturday 26th February, kick-off 15:00

Lincoln's season has been somewhat curious. At times they appeared to have re-captured their counter-attacking mojo, but they have been far too inconsistent and have slipped back into bad ways with just one win from their last six.

Bolton breezed past them on Tuesday night, but the betting gave them little chance. But crucially they lost to Doncaster last weekend; a side that I have heavily criticised this season for having one of the worst away records of all time with 38 goals conceded. The fact that Donny were able to win 0-1 at Sincil Bank throws a lot of questions Michael Appleton's way.

They spurned countless chances early in the game despite having John Marquis, Morgan Whittaker and Chris Maguire all in the side. They cannot keep affording to waste opportunities, and things won't be easy against a Gillingham team that have shored up since Neil Harris took over.

Lincoln have won just one of their last six Football League fixtures against Gillingham (D2 L3), with the Imps failing to score in four of those games. so it provokes the theory to lay the hosts here at a short 1.774/5. That's chronic bad value for a team that have lost nine at home and conceded more than they have scored.

The fact Appleton's men have netted only 14 times at Sincil pushes me to the Under 2.5 bet at around 1.84/5. We've been in good form with the Correct Score punts lately, so I am happy going again with the 0-0 and 1-1. As usual with those two bets; backing on the split-stakes gives a chance to trade out in-running if we get to half-time without a goal.

KEY OPTA STAT: Gillingham are without a win on their travels in the Football League in their last 10 games (D4 L6), conceding 2+ goals on six occasions - they last had a longer such run back in November 2014 when they went 13 away league games without victory (D4 L9).

*Click here for Ian Lamont's League Two tips