League One Saturday Tips: Go green for weekend and back Oxford for the draw

Dons look a good price to maintain promotion push

Cambridge United v MK Dons
Saturday 19th March, kick-off 15:00

The MK Dons are maintaining their promotion push with a fine unbeaten sequence that stretches back to the end of January, although their run of five straight victories was brought to an end with a 1-1 draw last weekend at the hands of second-placed Wigan.

Liam Manning's side have played the top two in recent weeks and picked up four points - including a win at leaders Rotherham with 10 men, and the decision to bring in Manning to replace Russell Martin at the start of the season is looking an inspired one. Manning has the philosophy, and is well-schooled from his days at Ipswich as a coach. Perhaps Ipswich should have kept him?

Daniel Harvie, Josh McEachran and Scott Twine all returned last weekend to emphasise the strength in depth of the squad. Twine is often a player I've eulogised in the column, usually for his scoring prowess, but his corner laid on Harry Darling's eighth of the season on Saturday to once again show the battling qualities of the side, as they've often come from behind this season; which is something to keep in mind for playing in-running.

Dons have added a cutting edge to their game with set-pieces, and I admired the way they managed to play through Wigan on Saturday. Manning said afterwards: "A point is probably fair given the chances created. We went into the game to win it, not to take a point, which speaks volumes about the belief in this group, but, overall, I'm pleased with a point."

Their gameplan was executed to a tee at Rotherham too recently - defending well at times with plenty of bodies behind the ball, which was no mean feat against such a robust outfit.

Cambridge have failed to score in their last three league games (D1 L2) - they last did so in four consecutive games between November and December 2018 (D1 L3), and that stat alone makes the visitors a fair price at 2.0421/20 as I think they should be shorter.

Scott Twine scored two goals and provided two assists in the reverse fixture earlier in the season, the first player to do so for the club in league competition since Rhys Healey against Crawley Town in November 2018. Twine is a good spot for the Anytime To Score bet at 9/5, and you can use the Betbuilder to play with a double on the away win that pays 3.69.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge have lost all three of their previous Football League meetings with MK Dons, conceding 11 goals in total (3.67 goals per game).

Tractor Boys are improving and are worth playing with a Correct Score punt

Oxford United v Ipswich Town
Saturday 19th March, kick-off 15:00

Oxford have won five of their last six league games (L1), scoring 2+ goals in five of those games and four goals on three occasions, but the market doesn't see this as totally one-way traffic with a tight betting heat for Saturday in a crucial game for both. The hosts at 2.6413/8 are the shortest, just, but Ipswich have improved under Kieran McKenna and the prices reflect their improvement.

So much so, McKenna has made them a hard to beat with just one defeat in their last 12. However, there have been four low-scoring draws in recent weeks against including MK Dons and Portsmouth - that both finished 0-0. That's an angle I am keen to explore again for Saturday.

Danny Cowley the Portsmouth boss lavished Town with praise following a hard-fought stalemate last weekend, noting how well they have been coached by McKenna with some good young players. However, Cowley is a fine coach himself, and he played the game well with a "boring" performance, intent on getting the point.

It's a slight problem for the Tractor Boys that they cannot put sides away, but they don't give away many at the other end too. Perhaps they did run out of attacking ideas seven days ago, but that's good for us, as Oxford I find, are a possession-based team that can be played by easily soaking up the pressure.

Oxford have been in good form at home of late, scoring four against Burton and Cambridge, which makes the Under/Over 2.5 interesting. I am leaning towards Under, but I would rather back the 0-0 and 1-1 and play on the outright draw at 3.412/5 as five of the last seven meetings between the pair have ended in a draw, with Ipswich's only win during that time coming in February 1999. We almost landed a 1-1 last weekend with Shrewsbury, only for an 82nd minute goal to ruin the bet, but that highlights the ability to trade out so late in the game. The starting price was nearly 8.07/1, and that would have dipped below 2.01/1 for a perfect trade.

Ipswich's Joe Pigott has more Football League goals against Oxford (6) than any other side, including three goals in his last six games against them. He can be backed at 11/4 Anytime To Score for Saturday.

KEY OPTA STAT: Oxford are unbeaten in all 10 of their previous home Football League games against Ipswich (W4 D6), with each of the last three games ending in a draw.

Greens will be roared on to Home Park win again

Plymouth Argyle v Accrington Stanley
Saturday 19th March, kick-off 15:00

Accrington have won on two of their last three visits to Plymouth in the Football League (D1), having failed to win any of their five previous trips there (D3 L2), and I am keen to use that Opta stat and oppose Stanley this weekend - even though we collected with a 2.47/5 home win on them last weekend.

They looked overpriced on Saturday as their home form at the Wham is up there with the best of them. They are now on 11 for the season, but away from home it's a different story, as they have lost 11 and conceded a massive 33 goals. Their chronic inconsistencies is stymying any sort of push for a play-off spot, although my own thoughts are they are short on that front by four or five players.

The Green won the reverse fixture 1-4 earlier in the season, and with Stanley's penchant for conceding on the road, the Over 2.5 Goals at 1.8810/11 is how the layers are seeing that. It's more influenced by Accrington's defence rather than Plymouth - who have won four on the spin and kept four clean sheets.

They've beaten Morecambe, Wimbledon and Portsmouth in that run, most latterly on Tuesday against Pompey - a performance that saw them overtake Sunderland into fifth roared on by a crowd of nearly 15,000 at Home Park. Manager Steven Schumacher had a tough task taking over from Ryan Lowe earlier in the season, as his mentor was known for playing swaggering, stylish football. Schumacher has added a bit of steel at the back, as they withstood the aerial bombardment from Pompey in the week and were tremendously organised.

Plymouth's Niall Ennis has two goals in his last two league appearances against Accrington - and can be backed at 4/1 First Goalscorer on the Sportsbook, but Plymouth look a very sound bet at 1.9210/11 to win this.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth have won each of their last two Football League games against Accrington - they've never won three consecutive games against them before.