League One Saturday Tips: Back draws in Saturday's crunch games

Wham goes another home win for Stanley

Accrington Stanley v Charlton Athletic
Saturday, 15:00

Johnnie Jackson's initial appointment was greeted with cheers at Floyd Road following his decision to take the permanent job offered to him, and quite right too, as his high-intensity game with renewed energy had given the Addicks fans hope for an outside shot at the play-offs.

These hopes were extinguished a while ago, and the Londoners are now in a horror run of five defeats in six and a draw. They haven't scored a goal either in their last four games.

Owner Thomas Sandgaard has backed the 39-year-old Jackson, but also indicated in an interview with BBC London recently that he wants a top two finish as a realistic target for next season. No pressure then. JJ has been unlucky with injuries as Jayden Stockley, Chuks Aneke and Conor Washington being ruled out at various times robbed him of his best forward options. A relegation battle seemed unthinkable in December, but there will be one or two nervous glances behind at Morecambe and AFC Wimbledon.

At sub-2/1 on the Exchange, backing the Addicks looks a poor value bet.

Accrington's form can meander from good to middling, and are so inconsistent, progress is often stymied. Almost a classic League One team.

One thing in their favour, however, is their home form at the Wham. With ten victories, it ranks up there with the top sides, so does their record of scoring 32 goals on terra firma - which is superior to MK Dons and Wigan. They concede too, but they last tasted defeat on their own patch in early December - and they even surprised Rotherham to win 1-0.

This is a straight match-up: a good home side against poor away one. Charlton have lost 10 on the road and historically fare poorly against Stanley, as according to Opta, Accy have lost just one of their five previous Football League games against the Londoners (W2 D2), with both victories coming in their last three meetings (D1).

It might be a frantic game as the hosts like to get the ball forward as quickly as possible. Korede Adedoyin, Ross Sykes and Harry Pell all were on the scoresheet in their most recent 3-2 home success against free-falling Wycombe, and they look a decent price at 2.47/5 to maintain their excellent form at home.

Key Opta Stat: Charlton have failed to win any of their last six league games (D1 L5), while failing to score in their last four (D1 L3) - the Addicks haven't gone five consecutive games without a goal in the Football League since November 2015.

Shrews underrated at home again

Shrewsbury Town v Oxford United
Saturday, 15:00

Oxford sit in fourth place on the tails of MK Dons and seem to be involved in a high-octane game most weeks. They hit seven at Gillingham, and have scored 17 goals in their last six games.

The Karl Robinson DNA oozes through the side, and out of the top four teams in the division, Oxford and the MK outfit play the most attractive, possession-based football. You can back the U's at 4.03/1 in the Promotion market, and a few more wins should see that price contract at least a point for a trade to lay back.

Pricing this up in my head earlier in the week, I would have gone about 2.01/1 to 2.26/5, and for a side that score so many goals (43 at home and 28 away), layers often won't take a risk.

However, their strength can also be their weakness, as good teams that are set up well at the back can find it easy to play against them and soak up the pressure. Shrewsbury are most certainly that team - and often overpriced at home and that's the case again with a 3.412/5 price.

The Double Chance is an obvious one at the price, but I can't see too many goals in this and a low-scoring draw is the way to play this. The Shrews have been held to a single-pointer in seven of their last 11, with an astonishing six 0-0 draws since December.

I am keen to play on the 0-0 and 1-1 Correct Score bets, and as usual, the 0-0 is the best back-to-lay, as we can get to 40 minutes goalless and trade out at around 3.259/4. For a Sportsbook Betbuilder option; backing the Draw and Under 1.5 Goals pays 3.63263/100.

Key Opta Stat: Oxford are unbeaten in their last seven Football League games against Shrewsbury (W6 D1), scoring 2+ goals in six of those games (18 in total).

Two in-form sides leads to a swing on the draw

Ipswich Town v Portsmouth
Saturday, 15:00

Ipswich won the reverse fixture over Portsmouth 4-0 in October to end a run of three consecutive defeats. They last won consecutive Football League games against Pompey in February 2012 according to Opta, and they are an attractive enough price to get one over their promotion hopefuls.

Indeed, this is a real sixth place six-pointer, if there ever was such a thing. Town are ninth, with Pompey a place behind and both are single figures in the Promotion market at 6.05/1 and 4.03/1 respectively. Danny Cowley's side are the shorter of the two.

Draws, and a collection of seven of them have been the Achilles' heel for Ipswich this term, and Kieran McKenna is doing his part to keep the momentum going with three stalemates in eight, although the Tractor Boys have won five of those. Mckenna will be hoping for a bit of luck with injuries as George Edmundson and Sam Morsy both were taken off on Tuesday, with Luke Woolfenden, Burns and Dominic Thompson also receiving treatment in the 2-0 success against Lincoln.

McKenna's stock is rising, and he's made Town very hard to beat. Ten clean sheets in 14 on his watch makes them a great bet in the To Win To Nil market, which is usually the preserve of Rotherham and their knack of a shutout. The Northern Irishman has won nine of his 14 games and lost just twice.

They took advantage of Lincoln's high press in midweek and played through the gaps, and when needed, defended well. Pompey are in a great run of form themselves, and have netted a bundle of goals in a brilliant run. They smashed three on Tuesday and four on Saturday, and last failed to find the net in late January at Sunderland.

Portsmouth's Tyler Walker has scored three goals in four Football League appearances against Ipswich, against no other side has he scored more goals. As good as the hosts are at the moment, the draw is my favoured option, and backing Walker Anytime Scorer and the draw on the Sportsbook Bet Builder pays an ambitious 11/1. Walker got his first goal for the club against Crewe on Tuesday as the team produced a compact defensive display and a ruthless spell of counter-attack football.

Key Opta Stat: Portsmouth have alternated between defeat and victory in their last six Football League trips to Ipswich (W3 L3).