League One Midweek Tips: Black Cats can clinch points against Tractor Boys

Will Swindon revert to their losing ways on the road?

Plymouth Argyle v Swindon Town
Tuesday November 3, kick-off 19:00

The world of topsy-turvy results doesn't seem exclusive to the Premier League it seems. I backed Hull at the weekend, who faced a Swindon team with four straight losses, yet it was Town that collected all three points. And from the midweek joy of 3/3 for the column, it was back down to earth with three losers on Saturday. It's that sort of league, and never be afraid of backing the outsider, although it's hard to make a case for Swindon again this Tuesday.

There's also the small matter of them losing five in their last seven.

I haven't penned anything about Plymouth this season, and they're a different sort of team to the one that played under Derek Adams in this division. Back then they were fairly direct and got the ball forward quickly, but under Ryan Lowe, the Greens are more of a passing team. They also play a good old-fashioned No10 in Danny Mayor, a playmaker who could have performed at a much higher level. He ran the game against Northampton recently, and he really is important to how Argyle play.

Plymouth had a blank Saturday so will be the fresher of the two, and they'll have a week to reflect on a great 2-1 victory against in-form Doncaster last Tuesday. Lowe praised his side for "mixing it up" a little, and those three points took their tally at Home Park this term to W4 D1 in their five matches.

The visitors have lost all three of their games on the road and I am happy to take the 2.206/5 on offer for the home win.

If you distrust the Swindon victory even more, there's the option of backing Plymouth -1 in the Swindon +1 market at a fairly hefty 4.1031/10. That looks interesting as Plymouth could be good for a couple of goals in this as they've netted eight in five at home.

KEY OPTA STAT: Plymouth are unbeaten in their last 12 home league games (W9 D3) and have suffered only one defeat across their last 19 matches at Home Park.

Dons look far too short in the betting again

Northampton Town v MK Dons
Tuesday November 3, kick-off 19:45

Teams are certainly making it hard for MK Dons to play their attractive brand of football, and it was another case of one defending very well against Russell Martin's men on Saturday. Martin is consistent with his approach and they often look the dominant team in terms of possession, but the lack of quality in the final third and box is hindering them. Veteran striker Cameron Jerome was an excellent addition, and he's got two in six, but he needs a little help to put the finishing touches to some good build-up play.

However, the Dons do look on the short side at 2.0621/20 away from home. There is only a point difference between the two and MK have lost four of their five road games.

Northampton won't have much of the ball in this, and that just might suit Keith Curle and his gameplan. His side play in a similar style to AFC Wimbledon - who took a point from the MK Dons on Saturday. They'll have to defend, but they showed they can when beating Swindon 2-1 two weeks ago. The Cobblers had just 35% of possession in that but looked far more aggressive on the front foot.

It's a fairly meagre return of 10 points from 10 games for Northampton, but backing them at 4.03/1 makes more appeal than their opponents. Town fans will know of their recent dip in second-half performance levels, which has manifested into nervy defending when leading, so it could be worth considering Northampton in the Half Time market at 4.67/2.

But I would prefer to go with the Double Chance at 2.89/5.

KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons are winless in each of their last 19 away league matches (D7 L12), winning only one of 22 such matches since the beginning of last season.

Black Cats can triumph in headline fixture

Sunderland v Ipswich Town
Tuesday November 3, kickoff 19:00

Tuesday's Stadium Of Light fixture is by far the biggest of all the games, although Peterborough fans might disagree considering how well their team is doing at the moment.

Steven Evans, Gillingham manager, might have something to say too as his team were recently beaten by both Sunderland (0-2) and Ipswich (0-1), yet emphatically stated Gillingham were the better team. I'm not sure too many believed that on Saturday at the Priestfield.

The Black Cats did have to withstand not only some physical Gillingham pressure, but also some horrendous conditions. It was the sort of performance Phil Parkinson needed following a couple of iffy results, and their quality showed up with a pair of late goals, but despite Evans' claims, the game should have been wrapped up much earlier given Sunderland created the best chances.

I was with Crewe to beat Ipswich on Saturday, and looking at the match reports and comments, I am feeling a little hard done by. Crewe dominated the first-half and then had Ipswich under siege late in the second. Once again Ipswich had a moment which they took, but even Paul Lambert couldn't replicate his fellow Scot Evans, and he admitted his team were outplayed.

Almost certainly one that got away.

Ipswich are still not convincing in terms of their play and the amount of chances they are creating, so I am quite happy to back the hosts at around 2.01/1 here. The Under 2.5 Goals looks fairly obvious given the pair have been involved in five 1-0 results between them this season, so the 1.84/5 is not a bad price.

KEY OPTA STAT: Sunderland suffered their first league defeat in 14 games at home last time out against Portsmouth (W7 D6), last suffering consecutive losses in 2018 under Chris Coleman.