With another round of Tuesday fixtures in League One, Alan Dudman returns with three selections to consider for the midweek action...
"They are so well-drilled in this system under Michael Appleton, that surely they will be good enough to take a point or more here."
Blackpool too short again for trip to Wombles
AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool
Wimbledon on Saturday were the saving grace for the column as they earned a point at Burton, and in the process earning a successful lay of the Brewers. And guess what? We've got a similar sort of scenario once again with Blackpool at 2.26/5.
Maybe it's Blackpool's orange shirts, but their price suggests they're playing like the Dutch team of '88 right now, and there is no way I can get involved in a side that are around 5/4 with a record of one win in six - and that came against the MK Dons on Saturday. Russell Martin (of said MK outfit) was pretty scathing in his comments about the Tangerines, but fair play to Neil Critchley who came up with a tactical switch against a back-three to play a 4-2-3-1 with Ben Woodburn as a No 10.
One swallow doesn't make a summer, or whatever that saying is.
Wimbledon look overpriced at 3.412/5, although I suspect their home form is influencing those numbers as they have collected just one point in three games in London so far, and that was a bizarre 4-4 with Plymouth.
However, they played and defended well against Hull and manager Glyn Hodges used Joe Piggot as a lone striker with almost a six-man midfield in that. Maybe he'll switch to a two with Ryan Longman (on loan from Brighton) to provide a bit more support, especially at home, but they'll certainly be direct and give Blackpool a test.
I would be quite interested in the 'Yes' for Wimbledon in the To Keep A Clean Sheet market, but we've got enough here to play on the Double Chance with the hosts.
Crewe to have their credentials tested against leaders Lincoln
Crewe v Lincoln City
One of the big games coming up on Tuesday night is at Gresty Road with Lincoln in town - currently top of League One with 19 points. And they are the bigger of the two in price here at 2.8415/8.
The odds are tight, and I can see why laying Crewe at bigger than 2.747/4 would be risky. They look a good footballing team and earned a sublime win at the weekend against Doncaster - previously the division's top scorers.
Alex boss David Artell has said his team are decent and can match anyone in the league, so this represents their sternest examination of those credentials.
My angle here is that Lincoln are best when ceding possession and playing on the counter-attack. They are so well-drilled in this system under Michael Appleton, that surely they will be good enough to take a point or more here.
They beat Ipswich 1-0 on Saturday and allowed Town most of the ball - whilst limiting Paul Lambert's team to hardly a chance. Crewe will have a bit more verve and invention than Ipswich and are certainly more aggressive with their passing higher up the pitch.
However, Lincoln are unbeaten in three on the road and can be played here on the Draw No Bet.
Fleetwood are finding their form again and should beat Shrews
Fleetwood Town v Shrewsbury
The Fleetwood 4-1 victory in front of the Sky cameras against Hull is still giving me nightmares. From the very first whistle in that, Town were two paces sharper than Hull and created a host of chances against a team that had previously kept a host of clean sheets.
Since then, manager Joey Barton got the signing he was craving all summer in Charlie Mulgrew. The 34-year-old's experience and organisation was much-needed to the backline, and his influence can be seen in the the three games he has played so far. After all, he's played for some big clubs in Celtic and Aberdeen.
Fleetwood picked up three points in bizarre circumstances at Gillingham on Saturday as they were denied access to the changing rooms as the hosts had expressed concerns over possible Coronavirus infections. Barton was happy to get one over on Steve Evans, though.
Shrewsbury lost again on Saturday and have lost four at home, although performances are said to be better than the actual points tally.
Salop manager Sam Ricketts has gone for a more possession-based game this season, but it's leaving them a bit more open at the back. Something Rochdale took full advantage of on Saturday, with the Shrews having 20 shots. They really do need to turn possession into goals.
Fleetwood were very clinical in the Hull game, and their experienced front two of Paddy Madden and Ched Evans could make the difference here as Shrewsbury have conceded some cheap goals this term.
Alan Dudman's League One P&L
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts
*all bets to a 0.5pt stake
Back Home and Draw Double Chance @ 2.26/5 AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool
Back Lincoln City Draw No Bet @ 1.9010/11 v Crewe
Back Fleetwood to beat Shrewsbury @ 2.0811/10