League One Football Tips: Back the Alex to cause a shock at Ipswich

Ipswich manager Paul Lambert
Paul Lambert's Ipswich scraped a 1-0 victory against Gillingham in midweek

All three of Alan Dudman's bets won on Tuesday, and our League One man is back to preview the weekend's action...

"They've lost twice on the road this term - but both were close 1-0 defeats at heavy-hitters Hull and Sunderland."

Back Draw Or Away @ 2.26/5 Double Chance Ipswich v Crewe

Oppose the Tangerines again at Burton

Burton Albion v Blackpool

Two badly out-of-form sides meet at the Pirelli for this, and whilst it's unlikely that the mirrors of footballing heaven will be reflecting on this encounter, I am going to stick with the tried and trusted method recently in opposing Blackpool. With mystifying regularity, they are once again much shorter in the betting at 2.47/5.

It's all about price in betting, and Blackpool seem to be chalked up at the wrong odds with great regularity.

We opposed them on Tuesday at Wimbledon (a game they lost 1-0), and there's no reason to deviate from that tactic - even though they face the league's bottom team. However, only a point separate the two and Burton showed a fair bit with a spirited 2-2 at Peterborough on Tuesday. The Posh hadn't dropped a point at home in their last nine games, so it was some result for Jake Buxton's team.

The most pleasing aspect was some of their attacking play. On-loan Wolves man Niall Ennis looked sharp, as did Aston Villa loanee Indiana Vassilev. He gave the excellent Nathan Thompson a torrid time down the flanks. Kane Hemmings bagged a brace too.

Burton have tightened things up and with two draws in their last three, and they could have half a chance for this.

Blackpool are regressing and with just one victory in their last seven, they shouldn't be 2.47/5 away from home. Neil Critchley's high-press has been criticised for not being as successful as it was in pre-season, and if Burton can reproduce the desire and fight they showed on Tuesday, they look worth taking on the Draw No Bet, especially as the Tangerines have won only one of their last five league meetings with the Brewers.

KEY OPTA STAT: Burton have kept a clean sheet in each of their last three games against Blackpool.

Town look vulnerable favourites against Artell's Alex

Ipswich Town v Crewe

Ipswich have a perfect record at home in the league this season - played four, won four with no goals conceded. Therefore it might come as a surprise that you can back the Tractor Boys at 2.0811/10. I guarantee if Sunderland had a similar record they would be nearer 1.608/13. But there's a feeling brewing that Ipswich aren't quite as good as their league position suggests.

That certainly was the case with a scrappy 1-0 win against Gillingham in midweek. One moment of quality from Teddy Bishop sealed the victory, although Gills' boss Steve Evans claimed his side were the better team. Maybe the Scot was trying to deflect some of the attention from his team's own poor form, but Ipswich certainly lacked a consistent goal threat - something the local EADT highlighted in the match report.

After two defeats on the road, there were one or two rumblings that a potential slide in results could happen - reminiscent of last term, so that 1-0 victory was much-needed. Incidentally manager Paul Lambert wasn't present as he was self-isolating and is awaiting news of a Covid-19 test result.

I've said on a couple of occasions that David Artell's Crewe are an attractive outfit that pass the ball with a bit of purpose. They've lost twice on the road this term - but both were close 1-0 defeats at heavy-hitters Hull and Sunderland. They created plenty of chances against the Tigers with their five-man midfield, and I expect them to give Ipswich more of a test than the price suggests.

At nearly 4.03/1 in the match odds, we have enough here to play on the Double Chance bet. It could be a low-scoring match, but the 1.748/11 is far too short to entertain.

KEY OPTA STAT: Crewe have kept just one clean sheet in their last 17 away league games.

Tigers look a fair price to beat Swindon's leaky defence

Swindon Town v Hull City

Hull are chugging along nicely with 21 points towards the top of the table, and on paper Saturday's trip to Swindon looks a relatively straightforward task. We can back Hull at 2.1211/10, which is not far off Blackpool's 2.47/5, and Hull have already won four times on the road.

They collected one of those victories on Tuesday night at Bristol Rovers with a 3-1 success. It took a while for the Tigers to find their rhythm in the game, but Rovers are much-improved with their open brand of football these days, and Hull's depth on the bench was telling as all three substitutes scored. One came from the excellent Keane Lewis-Potter - he looks a player.

Swindon have lost their last four league games and are looking to avoid a fifth consecutive victory for the first time since 2017, but they are leaking too many goals. They are conceding on average over two goals per game from their last six matches and haven't kept a clean sheet all season - and that's a seismic worry considering Hull manager Grant McCann can call on the likes of Josh Magennis, Tom Eaves and Mallik Wilks.

Indeed, Hull are the third tier's top scorers on the road with 11 in five games and they look a reasonable price to add to their points tally.

KEY OPTA STAT: Hull have won seven of their opening nine league games this season, only once in their history have they made a better start to their EFL campaign.

Alan Dudman's League One P&L

2020/21: +0.82pts
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts

*all bets to a 0.5pt stake

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