The topsy-turvy world of League One is previewed again by Alan Dudman this Saturday, and he is backing big outsiders Swindon to cause a major shock...
"Swindon have endured a torrid run of late with just one victory in 10, but that win was at Ipswich and they played a super counter-attacking game to win 2-3."
Can we trust Hull at long odds-on?
I was kicking myself in midweek for not putting up Accrington to beat my old nemesis Hull City on Tuesday - as Stanley were a massive price to cause a shock, and cause a shock they did.
It's why League One is surely the most unpredictable betting medium in the land. Two games previously, Hull had beaten Stanley 3-0, yet in the space of seven days they lose.
Which is what makes Saturday's mismatch quite interesting. The hosts are priced up at 1.4840/85 and clearly it's a no-brainer they should win, but they do slip up. As I well know.
Swindon have endured a torrid run of late with just one victory in 10, but that win was at Ipswich and they played a super counter-attacking game to win 2-3. It's dangerous to pin your hopes on that one standout in terms of getting a result here, but Swindon are huge at 8.07/1, and in this division form is just going out of the window.
Robins' boss John Sheridan needs a win too, as there was calls for him to go following the latest loss to Plymouth.
Visitors can take the honours in derby clash
It's not quite the hottest ticket in town, but it's always good when these two lock horns considering the intense rivalry. And a lot has changed regarding the fortunes of the pair since the two met at the end of October - a game that finished 1-1.
The MK Dons and their total football philosophy has started to work and slowly but surely Russell Martin's team have pulled themselves away from the relegation zone.
AFC Wimbledon however have gone from a mid-table side to one that is staring at the possibility of relegation. They last won in the league back in early December and they are conceding too many goals at home.
The visitors certainly have a goal in them to breach the hosts and their backline, as Joe Mason displayed recently with a hat-trick in the 3-1 win against Fleetwood. A good scalp.
It could be one for the BTTS backers, but I prefer backing the visitors to win at 2.35/4.
Ipswich look value for Alex trip
Ninth versus tenth for this one but how a market can tell a story for the fortunes of the two clubs.
Ipswich were one of the early season pacesetters but are falling away at the moment, while Crewe had been churning out some good results until Tuesday night's 4-1 catastrophic loss at Gillingham. I'm not sure anyone saw that one coming. .
The Alex had been unbeaten in 10 prior, so we shouldn't write them off too quickly, hence why the 2.166/5 price on offer for the hosts is about right.
The Tractor Boys have recently faced a couple of tough fixtures with 1-0 reverses against Sunderland and Peterborough and there could be a bit of value in the 3.9 price. It's a rarity to see Ipswich trade at such a big number.
We can use this to play on the Draw No Bet as Paul Lambert's side have only shipped in 10 on the road this season, and while we expect Crewe to have all the possession, Ipswich could have some joy on the counter.
Alan Dudman's P&L
League One 2020/21: -3.45
FA Cup 2020/21 (1pt): +12.42pts
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts
*League One bets to a 0.5pt stake