League One Betting Tips: Goals on the agenda for huge game at Fratton

Difficult to see beyond the draw between two strugglers

Forest Green Rovers v Shrewsbury Town
Saturday 3rd September, kick-off 15:00

Ipswich were one of my headline sides last weekend for the column, and despite scoring twice, blew the lead while Peterborough somehow managed to rescue a defeat from victory with a 2-1 loss despite leading 1-0 on 88 minutes. Not ideal with a Double Chance bet, and it means the division still looks wide open with Portsmouth the surprise leaders on 14 points.

Pompey are now 12.011/1 chances in the Winner market, with Ipswich hanging onto favouritism at 3.3512/5.

From the top we head to bottom, and two sides that are struggling already. It's nothing new for Shrewsbury fans, although Forest Green have enjoyed some successful times recently, but at the highest level they have ever played, they are getting found out. I personally thought they would be better equipped compared to how they have started.

The betting throws up a typical League One market with the hosts 2.6413/8 on the Exchange and Town at 2.89/5, and I must admit, the draw was where I was leaning as soon as I saw this fixture.

Shrewsbury haven't scored a goal at home yet in three games, albeit in some tough fixtures, but at least the travelling supporters have seen some action on the road with two goals at Wycombe and a 1-1 last Saturday at Bristol Rovers.

Gas boss Joey Barton is managing to criticise just about every opponent's style of play. He dismissed Portsmouth previously, and last week said he'd rather watch Liverpool on the telly than pay to watch Shrewsbury. Barton isn't exactly a fan of the long ball.

Steve Cotterill's Shrewsbury are winless in their last four matches when facing an opponent for the very first time in the Football League (D3 L1), last winning such a match against Burton Albion in August 2009 (3-1), so we haven't got any previous history to go on.

Both will dare not lose, which is an obvious thing to say, but it could mean they will take less risks for fear of losing points to a potential relegation rival. Early I know.

Shrewsbury have won just one of their last 12 matches with six draws, and that stat is more than enough to go with a low-scoring draw for this. Playing on the Sportsbook Bet Builder, and backing 'No' in the Both Teams To Score market pays a healthy 8/1.

KEY OPTA STAT: Forest Green Rovers have lost each of their last two league games by an aggregate score of 8-0. They've not lost three in a row without scoring since December 2017.

Entertainment to keep on flowing at Fratton Park

Portsmouth v Peterborough United
Saturday 3rd September, kick-off 15:00

Peterborough's agonising defeat at Derby last weekend was just as painful for me with two goals beyond 88 minutes, but a win would have had them shorter than 3.55/2 for this. What a difference a couple of minutes can make.

The habit of conceding plenty on the road manifested itself again though, and it's now six against for Grant McCann's team - as opposed to their home record at London Road of F9 A0.

It was one of Derby's worst performances of the season too, as they created very little. A loss was extremely harsh on the Blues, as refereeing decisions went against them and played the second-half with 10 men.

Portsmouth have seven points from their three Fratton Park matches and have been heavy scorers so far as they have been involved in 3-3, 3-1, and 4-1 matches, although it's three from five for backers of their games in the Over 2.5 market. I would imagine the Overs price will be a lot shorter than the 1.910/11 on offer on Thursday evening; I cannot see that lasting for long.

Danny Cowley finally has a striker and Colby Bishop's summer arrival to make a front three at times as seen them play on the front foot - to great effect. Bishop already has five in seven, although Jonson Clarke-Harris and Jack Marriott have eight in seven between them so far.

The Clarke- Harris price to Score Anytime on the Sportsbook should be considered at 12/5. He had a tough game against big centre-half Richard Stearman last weekend, but his movement was good and with Jack Taylor and Joe Ward's crossing, he could have some joy in the air for Saturday.

I do think Posh are overpriced again here, and there are several ways to boost your options of a price by using the Bet Builder. A Peterborough win and Clarke-Harris to score anytime pays 6.32133/25 while the Over 2.5 Goals and United win pays 5.33433/100. But I am going to play with Overs, as the 1.910/11 looks too good to turn down, especially with Posh's xG against figure thus far of 1.99.

KEY OPTA STAT: Portsmouth have only won one of their last six meetings with Peterborough in all competitions (D1 L4), losing both of their last two.

Greens can keep Rams quiet at Pride

Derby County v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 3rd September, kick-off 15:00

All three of Derby's games at Pride Park so far have been wins, but none have featured them winning by more than one goal.

Liam Rosenior's side got lucky last weekend, not only with some questionable refereeing, but also key decisions that went their way. So far it's been 1-0 v Oxford, 2-1 v Barnsley and 2-1 v Posh. Nine points from three performances where they haven't convinced at least bodes well.

They hardly created much last weekend, and they've already been blunted in two 0-0s away at Shrewsbury and Fleetwood - hardly two of the heavy hitters.

Defensively Plymouth fell apart at the seams at Charlton, which was their second stinker of the season as the were awful at London Road too.

However, they do have four clean sheets already this term and certainly "won ugly" last week with two pieces of quality from their front two in Niall Ennis and Ryan Hardie. A rare blank for on-loan Aston villa midfielder Finn Azaz, who has three this term in eight games.

Panutche Camara could be one player on the way out, and the heavily linked midfielder was rumoured to be leaving in a 500k exit, but he hasn't featured so far. At the time of writing nothing was confirmed, with Luke Jephcott also poised to leave.

The hosts are only averaging five shots on target so far, with xG figures of 1.74 and 1.06 against. We can use that to our advantage and play the Unders or 'No' in Both To Score. Layers might be out to get Derby too at a very short 1.8810/11.

KEY OPTA STATS: Derby have won each of their last seven home league games against Plymouth, although this will be their first since August 2009, winning 2-1 under Nigel Clough.