Alan Dudman picked up two winners out of three in midweek, and he is hoping for a clean sweep this Saturday with some big priced selections for League One...
"Doncaster are just too big for a side in fifth position to be trading at 4.03/1."
Black Cats look awful value once again
Sunderland v Doncaster Rovers
Saturday 13th February, kick-off 15:00
The Opta stats paint a picture that tells us the market is all wrong here. Firstly, the Black Cats have won just once in their last eight home league matches (D4 L3), and yet are miles clear in the betting for this as favourites at 2.0421/20. Doncaster are one loss in six, yet can be backed at a massive 4.03/1.
Now, of course in League One everyone beats everyone else and form is often out of the window, but I can't help feeling these prices are just plain wrong.
Sunderland are still to convince fully under new head coach Lee Johnson, but and it will take a lot more time than the handful of games he's had so far and as an attacking force I recently highlighted how their xG had dipped under Johnson since taking over.
Rovers thwarted my bet on Oxford last weekend, but that was a terrific advert for the division with two top teams going at it, and Oxford boss Karl Robinson commented just how brilliantly Doncaster defended in that game.
Bizarrely, both of these teams lost on Tuesday with matches they were expected to win, but that's how the season is going at the moment. Doncaster are just too big for a side in fifth position to be trading at 4.03/1.
KEY OPTA STAT: Doncaster have one loss in their last six matches in League One (won five), although their loss was most recent against Fleetwood on Tuesday.
Follow the Dons again on the road
Hull City v MK Dons
Saturday 13th Feb, 15:00
It's Hull time again, although I won't be backing them of course. The side that sit second with 49 points still are tricky to work out. They were involved in another low-scoring affair on Tuesday against the leaders Lincoln although Hull created more of the chances and certainly played well.
But previously they had lost to bottom team Burton. How do we work that one out?
If you are backing the Under 2.5 here, the hosts have been involved successfully with that bet from their last four games, and it will be interesting to see the dynamics of the possession for this, as the MK Dons will get the ball down and pass.
The visitors actually look reasonably interesting at 3.8514/5. They are certainly playing with more confidence and results have picked up with just two defeats in nine. Manager Russell Martin spoke about the improved mentality and how the belief has changed with results.
Recently they signed Will Grigg to add to their attacking options, and Grigg is certainly a better fit for this team than Sunderland. Dons were outstanding in the second-half on Tuesday when beating Rochdale 1-4, and they are worth a go on the Draw No Bet for this.
KEY OPTA STAT: MK Dons most recent visit to Hull ended in a draw.
AFC Wimbledon v Rochdale
Saturday 13th February, kick-off 15:00
If the currency you are after is victories, dealing with these two teams will leave you short. Wimbledon are in a bit of a funk at the moment with just one victory from 12, while Rochdale have a similar record at the moment with just one from 10. I'm not sure I want to be getting involved with the hosts at a very short 2.021/1, but then Rochdale hardly look a betting proposition either at 3.711/4. Shorter than Doncaster.
Clean sheets are a massive problem for Brian Barry-Murphy's team and they haven't kept one for 10 matches. They have conceded four on four occasions too - including their heavy defeat at home to the MK Dons on Tuesday.
With confidence on short supply for both teams, the idea of backing the draw for this one could be the way to go. Rochdale cannot keep conceding and losing as Barry=-Murphy could find himself under some pressure. The BTTS is clearly an option too considering the away record of the Dale.
KEY OPTA STAT: AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten against Rochdale in League One (W4 D4).
Alan Dudman's P&L
League One 2020/21: -3.34
FA Cup 2020/21 (1pt): +12.42pts
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts
*League One bets to a 0.5pt stake