Alan Dudman is rooting for Peterborough with his ante-post bets, but he thinks Lincoln look good value in a huge game this Saturday at London Road...
"Lincoln will feel like they have nothing to lose in terms of going for an automatic spot; with a game in hand on Posh and eight points to make up."
Will Posh crumble again?
Peterborough wobbled, Peterborough choked. A couple of familiar lines taken from the Doncaster 2-2, and unwanted for me too - as I put them up as a bet for not only the title, but also top scorers in the division in my ante-post preview. So I share the agony of the Posh fans.
But they blew a 2-0 goal lead against Rovers and lost their previous home match to Gillingham. I can't bring myself to back them at 2.186/5 for Saturday, and this is a massive game.
Lincoln will feel like they have nothing to lose in terms of going for an automatic spot; with a game in hand on Posh and eight points to make up.
Michael Appleton's team have been the most superior counter-attacking one on their travels this term, and they have earned a massive 13 away wins. Their recent 0-1 at Shrewsbury saw their midfield stars all reunited in Liam Bridcutt, Jorge Grant and Conor McGrandles - and they bossed the game.
The visitors have won their last three on the road 0-1, and that could be a potential scoreline to play considering they have conceded only 14 this season away from Sincil Bank. That makes them a bet for this, especially with Peterborough wobbling ever so slightly.
KEY OPTA STAT: Lincoln are unbeaten in their last two league fixtures against Peterborough (W1 D1). Both those matches, however, were at Sincil Bank; the Imps have only one won of their last nine visits to the Posh in the Football League (D3 L5)
Wombles can go a long way in securing their survival
With so many dead rubbers around, we have a rarity, as both of these have something to play for. A victory here will go a long way to preserve Wimbledon's League One status, and they have been in sparkling form under Mark Robinson. And that makes them a bet for this, more so given they are the biggest price of the two.
The Dons have to face history though, as they have lost seven of their last eight against Pompey, but the Robinson renaissance has seen them grab a chunk of goals in their quest for survival. Talisman Joe Pigott is to thank for that, he has six in his last nine, 21 in 50 and remains one of the most valuable players in the league in terms of points gained for his respective team.
The 3.052/1 is a good price on the hosts with the goals flying in. The Londoners managed another three on Tuesday night - unfortunately Rochdale scored three too. Nonetheless, it was another point for the Londoners.
In terms of Portsmouth, they seem to have been flapping around like an albatross given their lofty status in this division. Danny Cowley is charged with a late surge to get them in the playoffs, but their away form is not convincing. They have lost five of their last nine on the road and have been missing Cowley's best player Jack Whatmough - who serves the final game of his four-match suspension.
He has been badly missed.
KEY OPTA STAT: AFC Wimbledon are unbeaten in their last six matches in League One - the last time they remained unbeaten in more matches was between March and May 2019 (7 matches).
Addicks appeal on the road again
A good source of profit recently has been backing Charlton on their travels. I had them in a recent column for their trip to Plymouth - although I wasn't quite expecting the 0-6 thumping they gave the Greens.
Nigel Adkins' team made the critical error though, of not backing up a win with another as they conceded a late goal to Crewe on Tuesday night to only take a point. That leaves them in eighth position, and two off Portsmouth. Adkins has said it's still in their hands regarding a play-off spot.
The 2.111/10 is short enough in usual circumstances for backing a team away, and we aren't quite close enough to the golden rule at odds-on, but we can approach this bet with a bit of confidence considering Charlton also beat Sunderland at the Stadium Of Light and have won four of their last five on the road.
Accrington hardly feature in the column as they are so inconsistent. A heavy defeat to Wimbledon no one saw, and they've just produced two 3-3s.
KEY OPTA STAT: Accrington have won seven of their last ten home matches in the league against opposition from London, drawing two (L1). The defeat, however, came in their most recent home league match against London opposition, with Stanley losing 5-1 against AFC Wimbledon in April.
*You can follow mw on Twitter @DudmanAl
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Alan Dudman's P and L
League One 2020/21: -5.30pts
FA Cup 2020/21 (1pt): +10.42pts
2017/18 to 2019-2020: +42.24pts
*League One bets to a 0.5pt stake