Goals at Plough Lane with Wimbledon vulnerable
Stockport a class apart in League Two
Alan Dudman has weekend 4/15.00 and 5/16.00 accas
It's local Derby time with Posh entertaining Cambridge, and a case of matching up Peterborough's home form against Cambridge's poor one on the road, and the former shades it and deserve to be 8/151.53 for this.
Posh have lost none of their last five home league games (W3 D2), last enjoying a longer unbeaten home run between November 2020 and February 2021 (nine games), and are fully cemented as a top four side at the moment with 28 points form their 16 games.
I just cannot see where the goals are coming from with the visitors, as they have netted just four times on the road and have an xG away of just 1.03.
The U's have failed to win any of their last six away league matches (D2 L4), drawing a blank in four of those - including in each of their last two, and it's hard to fancy them even at a price. They've scored just once in their last four matches, and while the Under 2.5 came under consideration, derby honours should go to the hosts.
KEY OPTA STAT: Peterborough United have won each of their last five Football League home games against Cambridge United, a run that spans from 1997 to 2022.
Both of these had FA Cup mishaps last weekend with Pompey losing their unbeaten record this term at Chesterfield while Charlton were held at home to Cray - the latter more of a dagger than the Pompey loss.
I didn't read too much into the hosts losing last week, as the focus is fully on getting out of League One, and John Mousinho's side dare not blow it after several falsa dawns.
Charlton are terribly inconsistent, and once again are rooted to mid-table. Their squad is nowhere near strong enough to challenge and one week they win 4-0 and the following week lose 1-3.
Portsmouth are unbeaten in their last 13 home league matches (W8 D5), including winning all of their last five home matches, while Charlton have won just one of their last seven away league matches, although this victory did come last time out on the road - a 3-2 victory over Wigan Athletic.
KEY OPTA STAT: Charlton have won each of their last seven league visits to Portsmouth since losing 4-2 in the Premier League in April 2005 under Alan Curbishley.
Any game involving Cheltenham gets the Under 2.5 Goals radar going, and I was surprised to see the Under 2.5 price at 4/51.80, a shade shorter than the Over at Evens.
Wigan have influenced this price as they usually concede as many as they score, but the Robins have a pathetic 0.83 xG at home (even worse away at 0.77) and have scored just twice in seven games at Whaddon Road. They could do with the old warhorse Julian Alsop these days.
After losing seven consecutive League One matches between August and October, Cheltenham Town have since lost one of their last four (W2 D1), including winning their last home match (1-0 v Cambridge United). And while the hosts could be considered to scrap out another win, they are far from open and the price is a pretty good one on the Under 2.5.
KEY OPTA STAT: Wigan Athletic put an end to their four-match losing streak on the road last time out (2-0 v Exeter City) and are looking to win consecutive league away matches for the first time since October 2022 in the Championship.
Stockport County have won all of their last five league matches on the road, the longest ongoing winning run on the road in the division - scoring 2+ goals in all five matches. They impossible to keep out of Saturday's acca.
They've won five on the road this term and amongst some good teams at the summit of League Two, they are still fighting off Notts County and Wrexham in behind.
Swindon suffered the losses of all losses last weekend in the FA Cup with a ridiculous "cricket score" result of losing 4-7 at home to Aldershot. The result of the round.
While no one foresaw the seven against, Swindon do have a big problem in keeping clean sheets. They've conceded a massive 20 on the road compared to their seven at home, but they are usually pretty open - which is a far from ideal scenario with the League Two leaders in town.
KEY OPTA STAT: After losing 1-0 in March last season, Swindon are looking to avoid suffering back-to-back league defeats to Stockport County for the first time since August 2002.
Mansfield Town are unbeaten in their last 13 League Two matches (W6 D7), the longest current such run in the division, and fully warrant their weekend price of 3/4.
The draw column on the road is slightly worrying at five (compared to three wins), but they've hit four on the road twice in recent games away at Notts County and Harrogate.
Lucas Akins has seven in 18 this term, and they have a good spread of goals throughout the team. Their counter-attacking style works well on the road as they can soak up pressure expertly and while Salford City completed a league double over Mansfield Town last season, scoring seven goals across the two wins, I like Nigel Clough's team here on the road.
You can also play them Double Chance for an insurance bet, but that's a little too short for me.
KEY OPTA STAT: After losing three consecutive league matches at home between August and September, Salford are since unbeaten in their last three (W2 D1), scoring 2+ goals in all three games.
AFC Wimbledon have won just one of their last 11 League Two matches at home (D4 L6). In fact, four of their last five League Two wins have come on the road, and that tempered the bet on the outright for the hosts at an odds-on price.
Doncaster have hit the Over 2.5 Goals on three occasions in their last four and that matches up with Wimbledon's home xG of 1.73.
Donny might feel they can get something from this game as they played quite well at Stockport in October - going down 1-0 on the road. After their 2-1 win in March last season, Doncaster could win consecutive Football League meetings with AFC Wimbledon for the very first time.
KEY OPTA STAT: Doncaster Rovers have won six of their last nine League Two matches (L3), which is as many victories as they managed in their previous 30 league matches.
Read Jack Critchley's Championship Preview here.
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