League One and League Two Tips: Challinor's Stockport to net profit for Saturday treble

• Orient in form and can bag a point

• Stockport shut out the goal kings Crewe on Tuesday

• Alan Dudman goes for 6/17.00 and 11/112.00 trebles

League One

Reading v Portsmouth - Saturday 15:00 - Back Portsmouth to win

Reading continue to struggle for goals and under Ruben Selles, they are hitting a poor run of form too. They are now four losses from five and conceded a last minute goal to Fleetwood on Tuesday.

The impact of that goal from a fellow relegation rival led Selles to say: "We prepare to start quick and there were a lot of passes we missed and situations in the duels we were not engaging. There were situations where they put pressure on us and we didn't react properly.

"It wasn't until minute 28 or 29, until we came back and started to play the game. We were trying to win the game but were in a structure. It's about execution when we were tired. We need to be more strong in those moments," so the structure and execution are both wrong.

Portsmouth haven't lost a league game played on a weekend since March when they lost 1-0 to Sheffield Wednesday. They are unbeaten in 17 Saturday/Sunday games since then (W9 D8), and remain unbeaten in the league with 32 points and are looking serious title contenders - finally.

Defensively they are excellent on the road having conceded just four in six and are set up to absorb pressure well on the road. At 21/202.05, they look a good price against a poor team.

KEY OPTA STAT: After going nine matches unbeaten on the road against Reading in the league (W4 D5), Portsmouth have lost on each of their last two visits, losing 2-0 in April 2011 and 1-0 in March 2012.

Cambridge v Carlisle - Saturday 15:00 - Back Under 2.5 Goals

Cambridge are always good for a low-scoring game and collected another Under 2.5 on Tuesday, albeit a good point, against Portsmouth at the Abbey and done well to restrict the league's best team to just three shots on target and an xG in the game of just 1.02.

Not many teams shut out Colby Bishop, and the 4-1-4-1 that Mark Bonner deployed might have sacrificed something up top, but they don't create many chances and only had three shots on target at Cheltenham, who are awful.

Carlisle have only won one of their last 15 away games in League One (D4 L10), while failing to score in six of their last nine such games, which hardly sets the tone for a classic.

Cambridge might be able to boast the University honours, but Carlisle's xG of 1.06 on the road might be good enough for a point, but I would rather play the Under 2.5 again with the U's.

KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge United have won all three of their league games in 2023 against fellow United sides without conceding a goal (1-0 and 2-0 wins vs Oxford, 2-0 win vs Peterborough).

Burton Albion v Leyton Orient - Saturday - 15:00 - Back the draw

Leyton Orient are doing me proud in League One, as one of my ante-post tips at a massive price and are now in the top half of the table with 19 points. They are 6.05/1 on the Exchange in the Top Six market, and are in a great run of form with just one loss since early September.

Richie Wellens rued a "mad five minutes" on Tuesday with a 2-2 at Northampton, a game they ought to have won. He said: "Players make mistakes and you have to ride with it but Northampton's first goal comes from our corner and then it's a horrible deflection past our goalkeeper. We then give away a stupid penalty and within four minutes the game has turned around, but when they went down to 10 men, we totally dominated the game."

However, I won't knock the O's too much and there's barely a cigarette paper between them and Burton for Saturday as both are on 19 points with the Brewers on two draws at home and the Londoners on three away.

Burton Albion have won three of their last four Football League games when meeting a side for the first time (L1), after failing to win any of the prior 10 (D1 L9).

KEY OPTA STAT: Burton have won each of their last three home league games for the first time since January 2022; they last won four consecutive such games in January 2020 under Nigel Clough.

League Two

Forest Green v Crawley - Saturday - 15:00 - Back Under 2.5 Goals

Forest Green have conceded 17 at home, which slightly alters the arithmetic for the Under 2.5 Goals, with the prices at over shorter than than 11/102.11 on the under, but there's mileage in the latter.

Crawley are losing their way and without a win in five has seen them slump to mid-table after a good start, but four of those five games were all Under 2.5 Goals and the only one that didn't hit the target was a 4-2 loss to Crewe - who score a ton of goals.

Crawley won their last league game against Forest Green 2-1 in February 2022, but have never beaten Rovers consecutively in League Two, and with the hosts in need of a result towards the foot of the table, I can't see this one being too open, as the hosts have lost seven of their eight at home - even if they have Troy Deeney.

The visitors have a far superior xG at home than away at 1.76 compared to just 1.23 on the road.

KEY OPTA STAT: Forest Green's Matty Taylor has scored three goals in his two previous appearances against Crawley in the Football League, with those coming for Bristol Rovers in 2015-16.

Stockport v Tranmere - Saturday 15:00 - Back Stockport HT/FT

We're set for the Dave Challinor derby and Stockport produced one of the best performances in terms of a result and defence on Tuesday with a 0-2 win at Crewe to maintain their position at the top of League Two. They are two ahead of Notts County and have lost just once at home all season.

However, earning a shutout at Crewe was a top result, as the Alex had scored 17 at home prior to Tuesday, yet failed to register a single shot on goal which speaks volumes for County's immaculate defending.

Stockport have won each of their last four home league games, not since April 2008 have they done so in five successive such games in the Football League, and while they are a short price to win, there's plenty of appeal in backing the HT/FT price at 5/61.84.

Tranmere have lost all seven away from home and face the form team.

KEY OPTA STAT: Tranmere have only lost one of their seven Football League visits to Stockport County in the 21st century (W2 D4), however that was this exact fixture last season (3-2).

MK Dons v Swindon - Saturday 15:00 - Back Over 2.5 Goals

MK Dons are back to their possession and passing game after the disastrous Graham Alexander appointment, and chairman Pete Winkelman has gone back to what they do best with the appointment of Mike Williamson.

Williamson had done such a fine job with Gateshead in the National League, and the recent addition to the club has made an immediate impact with Tuesday's 4-1 win against Bradford - something of a statement victory.

The registered 11 shots to 2 against the Bantams and played more from the back - something that had not happened under Alexander.

Swindon have been entertaining at home - but they draw a lot and their goals against column of 14 is higher than goals scored.

MK Dons have lost just one of their last 11 league games against Swindon Town (W7 D3), a 2-3 home reverse in February 2019, and they do look good for a goal or two this weekend.

Football... Only Bettor. Featuring Dimitar Berbatov. Watch Now...