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Alan has landed four accumulators this term
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Rovers look good for another potential 1-1
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Crewe xG figures reliable for Over bet
League One Treble
Since holding their position at the top of the table recently, I've backed Stevenage and included them in the weekend treble on the last two occasions and they've been rather disappointingly held twice 1-1 and 2-2 in games they were expecting to win.
Whether that has influenced their price slightly to 19/201.95 in the Match Odds betting I am not so sure, but it still looks a fair price as they tackle a woeful Cheltenham Town.
The Robins parted company with Wade Elliott this week - a manager who seemed to devoid of ideas in charge of a team that just cannot score a goal.
Bottom place is theirs with one point and have a very lowly xG of 0.86 and they haven't scored a goal in eight matches and are the first side since Halifax Town in the fourth tier in 1990-91 to fail to score in any of their first eight league games to begin a season - no side in Football League history have gone their opening nine league games without scoring.
Steve Evans' Stevenage have only lost one of their last six Football League visits to Cheltenham (W3 D2), a 4-2 defeat in September 2019 and ought to pick up the points here.
KEY OPTA STAT: Stevenage have won five of their last six away league games (L1), as many as in their previous 24 on the road (D12 L7).
Cambridge United's home record of three wins and a loss is fairly strong, and certainly strong enough to make them of interest at odds-against at 5/42.25 for Saturday's home fixture against Port Vale.
After winning this exact fixture 1-0 last season, Vale are looking to earn back-to-back Football League wins away to Cambridge for a very first time, and are certainly dangerous as they lost only their second game of the season on Tuesday with an entertaining defeat to Burton.
Vale have 16 points and have beaten Oxford and Charlton on the road this season, but the U's have won six of their last eight home league games (L2), after only winning one of their first seven such games of 2023 (D2 L4) and have an xG of 1.26 against an xA of the same number, so I am expecting a tight game and certainly an Under 2.5 Goals affair.
KEY OPTA STAT: Cambridge United have won three of their last four league meetings with Port Vale (L1), more than their previous eight beforehand (W2 L6).
The Both Teams To Score price at 4/61.67 is a good enough one to include as Joey Barton's team have hit the BTTS target in five of their seven matches so far with a penchant for a 1-1 - a scoreline netted on three occasions.
Rovers got their first win of the month last weekend at Shrewsbury with a comfortable 0-2 with Aaron Collins grabbing his first of the season in a game where they completed dominated possession.
Wigan have hit eight on the road and their highest figure with xG and xA is 1.64 for the latter which bodes well for Saturday's bet.
Wigan won their last league visit to Bristol Rovers 2-1 in February 2021, this after having only won one of their first 13 away games against them in the Football League beforehand (D4 L8), and tapping into that game, a repeat is likely with both to find the net.
KEY OPTA STAT: Bristol Rovers are one of four sides in the Football League Wigan forward Charlie Wyke has scored six goals against, along with Accrington Stanley, Doncaster Rovers and Rochdale - his joint-most against a single opponent.
League Two
Crewe have been an excellent Over 2.5 and BTTS team this term and collected another hefty scoreline last week for the column with a 2-2 at Wimbledon to easily land the Overs bet, as three goals were scored inside the first 51 minutes. More of the same please.
Lee Bell's Alex are now seven from eight for BTTS backers and there's no reason to deviate again from a side clearly providing plenty of entertainment. They are going well in the division too, but their xA of 1.78 at home will always keep us interested.
Colchester United won their last league meeting against Crewe 4-0 (April 2023) despite having just 38% possession and will be without the ball again I expect for a large chunk of this match and I always feel with a Ben Garner team they are there for the taking.
Crewe have drawn five of their last nine League Two matches (W3 L1), with all five draws ending 2-2, including last time out against AFC Wimbledon and more goals is the way to go.
KEY OPTA STAT: Colchester United have lost three of their last four League Two matches on the road, which is as many as they lost in their previous 12 away trips.
County look one of the best bets of the weekend with a home fixture against woeful Forest Green, and while the 2/51.40 is fairly prohibitive for an outright win, they should cover handicap bets, but we can get odds-against at 6/52.20 for the HT/FT market.
The Magpies have some serious firepower for this division and have won all three of their home matches this term scoring eight and conceding four and are unbeaten since their opening day loss.
Forest Green have only won one of their five matches against Notts County, that was a 3-1 victory in League Two back in September 2018, and while they have won twice on the road this term, they have only scored three times and the hosts have an excellent xG figure of 1.64 on their own patch.
KEY OPTA STAT: Notts County have made more successful passes, (4323), had more 10+ pass sequences (142), completed more passes in the opposition half (1774) and averaged more possession per game (64.3%) than any other League Two side this season.
Mansfield started the season as a major candidate as a play-off team, and their campaign thus far has certainly delivered with 14 points gleaned and a place in the top five.
Yet to lose this season, the Stags have drawn too many with an astonishing five stalemates so far, and Barrow are no back numbers here with a couple of draws themselves on the road including an excellent 1-1 at Accrington earlier in the season and have an excellent defence as no team in League Two has conceded fewer goals than Barrow's six this season, although they have only kept one clean sheet so far this term (1-0 v Harrogate Town).
It could be tight this one, but I am backing Mansfield to shade it at a win price of 4/61.67 in the match odds.
KEY OPTA STAT: Barrow have lost three of their last four matches against Mansfield Town across all competitions. However, they did win their last meeting with the Stags, winning 3-2 after being 2-0 down in a League Two clash in January 2023.