Carlisle v Stockport Play-Off Final Tips: Four bets from 6/4 to 10/1 at Wembley

• Hatters have the momentum

• Both teams have scoring abilities

• Take Collar to score first at 7/18.00

Who has the better momentum going into Sunday's League Two playoff final?

Carlisle were 23rd in February 2022, when Paul Simpson was appointed manager. An excellent season tailed off somewhat, with two wins in the final 11 games of the regular season.

Opta point out that after their 3-1 extra time, semi-final win over Bradford, they are looking for consecutive wins for the first time since March.

Dave Challinor's Stockport are on a roll after a slow start to the season (nine points from the opening 11 games). Opta point out that, having won the National League last year, they could become the first team to earn back-to-back promotions since Tranmere in 2019 (who beat Newport 1-0 in the playoff final).

Stockport to win in 90 minutes

Stockport might have seemed toothless with their best three strikers missing in the playoff semi-final first leg against Salford City, but they had ended their season with a 13-game unbeaten run (W6).

That statistics alone, against Carlisle's end to the season, would suggest that the Hatters could be a lot shorter than 2.56/4 to win at Wembley. Carlisle are 3.412/5.

All four playoff matches were so tight, however, that the draw must be considered at 3.39/4.

Much could depend on which strikers are fit: for Carlisle, 21-goal Kristian Dennis is targeting a return after badly damaging his shin against a mannequin in training and only featuring on the bench in the second leg against Bradford. There is every chance he will start.

Jon Mellish is now available again after suspension but the midfielder has not reached the goalscoring heights of two seasons ago (16), netting only nine times in the past two campaigns. He plays a different role now, to then.

Ben Barclay, who scored the goal that put them through to Wembley, is unable to play against his parent club Stockport.

Challinor's men, meanwhile, had two of their three missing 10+goal strikers from their first leg back for the second.

Paul Madden started and Will Collar came off the bench. They also had another big match player, Antoni Sarcevic, available.

The experienced midfielder, who has won promotion with Plymouth and Bolton from this division, made a crucial clearance late in the game. Having those regulars back will be a huge boost.

Cautious backing of over 2.5 goals

With six goals between the two over the course of the regular season (a 2-0 win for Stockport and a 2-2 draw, Opta remind us) over 2.5 goals seems a touch big at 2.68/5.

Of course the game will start cagey and tight, but three goals in the final analysis would not seem an unreasonable conclusion for teams with 28+ and 23+ goal differences this season.

For this bet to come off, though, there will have to be a first-half goal to light the touch paper, as there was when the pair drew in April, when Myles Hippolyte netted after 31 minutes. Both teams to score? That's 2.26/5.

With Simpson telling his troops - in a video that went viral - that he is "fed up with losing at Wembley" there will be a sense of urgency from Carlisle, I feel.

Stockport seem to have found the wider variety of possible scorers, however, and with the confidence of returning players will surely exploit any gaps.

Collar the bet on Will to score first

Those potential scorers for Stockport range from Connor Lemonheigh-Evans (8.07/1 to score first and 4.57/2 at any time) to Callum Camps at 9.08/1 and 5.04/1, then Isaac Olaofe to Jack Stretton, both at 6.511/2 and 3.7511/4.

Ryan Rydel, about 20.019/1, is more likely to supply, as he did last weekend.

Carlisle struggled for goals at the end of the regular season. Kristian Dennis - joint market leader at 6.05/1 here - only netted a handful in the final 20 games. Joe Garner, who is 8.07/1, and Owen Moxon, about 14.013/1, were among the occasionals, alongside, Mellish, who is 14.013/1.

Alfie McCalmont, on loan from Leeds, scored a couple back in March and is 15.014/1. John Kymani-Gordon, on loan from Crystal Palace, returned after suspension last weekend, which is another positive but he hasn't scored enough to justify 7.06/1.

Challinor was amazed to get 120 minutes out of Madden against Salford, believing the returning striker might last 60.

He is the other market leader at 6.05/1. With a sense of fatigue in mind I suggest taking Will Collar to score first at 8.07/1 on Sportsbook. He's been known to take penalties, which is a bonus.

Back Stockport to win 2-1

Stockport to win 2-0 is tempting at 14.013/1 in the correct score market. However, i have opted for over 2.5 goals, so 2-1 makes most sense at 11.010/1 rather than what would seem a thoroughly dominant victory of 3-0 at 34.033/1.

I'm giving the Cumbrians enough credit to score perhaps from 2-0 behind and make a tasty finish. The layers expect Stockport to win, too. The shortest half-time/full-time price is 4.03/1 on Stockport/Stockport (alongside draw/draw), on Sportsbook.