Carlisle v Bradford: Back Mark Hughes to be a happy man

• Cumbrians face a tall order even at home

• Top striking duo will surely have a say

• Lowest priced outcome seems the call

Away fans in full voice to make a difference

Bradford City's apparent improved relations with the Valley Parade fans doesn't stop the whingers on the forums suggesting that the Bantams are the biggest underachievers in the history of English football.

I am sure many fans of many clubs think the same. Sunderland. Newcastle. Birmingham City. Everton. Don't start me on Tottenham.

Anyway, ex-boss Stuart McCall says - probably in jest - that if Bradford reach Wembley he won't be going. Probably for reasons he feels he is unlucky for them. Or can't watch.

The Sheffield United assistant manager is highly thought of among Bantams fans.

We could end up with a Wembley scenario of Mark Hughes, the former Manchester United legend, managing against a team part-owned by other former club legends at Salford.

Statistics favour Bradford - just

However, Opta have other ideas about Bradford holding onto their slim lead, insisting that Carlisle are unbeaten in nine home games against them, winning six - and three in a row.

They were the third highest home scorers (34) in League Two this season. However, Bradford conceded the fewest away goals (20) - and Carlilse have won only one of their last seven playoff matches (D1 L5).

The Cumbrians' chairman wants boss Paul Simpson to stay for ever - and that's what the manager seems to want to, which is gratifying if they don't make the final.

I feel that although there is only a 1-0 deficit to claw back, doing so could easily be beyond Simpson's team, who are less expensively assembled and experienced in crunch ties than their visitors.

For a start, Bantams striker Andy Cook scored more away goals (15) than anyone else in League Two and that could be the crucial factor.

If the visiting supporters recreate the Valley Parade atmosphere that reminded Hughes of European glory nights with United and Barcelona, Bradford's players are likely to feed off that.

Bradford were unchanged from the final day of the season, but Hughes admitted something new came from the training ground - the move that Cook flicked on for Jamie Walker's only goal of the game.

Carlisle are short enough at 2.35/4 considering their home record is 11 wins and eight draws against Bradford's away of 11 wins and six draws.

The away win price is 3.711/4 while the draw is 3.39/4 and what I favour. Carlisle will have to attack, which Liam Ridehalgh, Brad Halliday and the backline are more than capable of soaking up.

Carlisle's main striker Kristian Dennis was restricted to a substitute's appearance and it will be interesting to see if Joe Garner will once against start for the hosts alongside Patrick Omari and Alfie McCalmont.

Law of averages says Cook will deliver

Crystal Palace loanee Scott Banks could still have an influential role for Bradford, although I think with his 28 goals this season Cook simply has to score - on the law of averages.

He is 5.04/1 to score first and 2.962/1 to score at any time on Sportsbook. Carlisle's Dennis is the same.

If you fancy a goalless draw, 6.511/2 is available on no goalscorer, and Patrick plus Garner are interesting at 7.06/1. Banks is 9.517/2 while Moxon is 12.011/1 to net the opener.

Dennis is 5.14/1 to net first, and one of the two big names must surely open the scoring, but as the latter didn't start the previous match Cook is taken to score first.

A goalless game? Surely not

These teams draw nil-nil in mid-March at Valley Parade and that scenario is 7.513/2 on Sportsbook. But surely a playoff semi-final second leg can't end that way after 90 minutes when one side needs to score?

This is no ordinary league games with a point to defend from the start. Carlisle have to go for it at some point. They can't afford to repeat their low-scoring efforts of four 0-0 draws in their final 11 games.

They have to score, but I think Bradford will too. A 1-1 scoreline seems more likely and for that reason is it priced the shortest of all the correct score possibilities at 6.05/1. The home side to win 1-0 is fractionally above 6.05/1.

The larger-priced away win is entirely possible, starting at 9.08/1 for a single goal and edging up to 12.011/1 for the 2-1 win.

This will be a tight game, I feel, but as one side now has to attack it will gradually open up and the visitors can progress with a 1-1 draw.

Profit from a tight second leg

Under 2.5 goals is again the shorter price at 1.75/7 so combining this with the draw seems the way to approach this match.

The first leg produced three shots on target and several off, which just indicates snatched chances rather than full ones.

This could end up as a dense midfield battle between the likes of Alex Gilliead for the visitors and Owen Moxon for the hosts.