Bradford v Carlisle League Two playoff Tips: Bantams to crow at home

• Home advantage key for Hughes' men

• Carlisle need to start strong

• Oppose top two in scorers' market

Bradford City v Carlisle United
League Two playoff semi-final first leg
Sunday 14th May 19:00
Live on Sky Sports

Clouds of expectation gather in Bradford

Huge expectations lie on the shoulders of Bradford City players, who have a high-profile manager now in a position to earn them a long-yearned for promotion. But even "monster clubs" (Orient manager Richie Wellens' description) have to earn the right to climb the pyramid.

Fresh from the cauldron atmosphere of the 22,576 home crowd (a 70-year best) against League Two champions Leyton Orient last Monday, hopes that Mark Hughes' men can now be promoted are now enormous. Opta stress that the Bantams won their only previous League Two playoff campaign in 2012-13 (while they have lost others in different divisions). Carlisle, meanwhile, have always been eliminated at the semi-final stage, in their three previous playoff appearances.

There is little between these teams. Carlisle's away record is as good as Bradford's at home, which is relatively poor. Visiting boss Paul Simpson will be hopeful that his side can find their best form, which has been evident in fits and starts. These teams picked up average points in the final 10 games, so both have some convincing to do to be promoted - both sides can be backed for promotion at about 4.57/2.

Home advantage needs to count

Bradford picked up just nine wins at home - and 10 draws. Had they translated four of those into wins, they would have earned promotion already. Early in the season, onlookers observed that the Valley Parade crowd were quick to criticise, making the hosts nervous. Reports suggest there was no such negativity last weekend in front of that huge crowd and that relations are much improved. One observer suggests the "vital" positive connection with fans is now well established.

Bradford failed to score in both games with Carlisle this season - 28-goal striker Andy Cook clearly had two off days! Opta point out that he has eight assists this season, too.

Hughes says the 1-0 defeat at Carlisle on Boxing Day was one of his side's worst results of the season - and that they have improved hugely since then. They also drew 0-0 with the Cumbrians at home in mid-March, so they will need to keep improving to beat them. The draw is very short at 3.14107/50 but such a result will do Bradford in particular no favours: Carlisle's home form is strong, winning 11 and drawing eight. Defender Ben Barclay's loan from Stockport has also been extended, boosting them for the second leg even if he wouldn't be allowed to play against the Hatters in the final.

On the plus side for Bradford, Crystal Palace winger Scott Banks and Huddersfield's Romoney Crichlow have had loans extended. You don't want to be losing regular first teamers!

Cook, add Opta, has four times as many assists/goals than any other Bradford player and they certainly need to make the most of his contribution. Bradford should be taken to win at 2.47/5. Carlisle are 3.814/5.

A warning against too many goals

Bradford's last six games have reaped 18 goals, but there is reason to be cautious about lumping on over 2.5 goals at 2.77/4. Firstly, first legs do tend to be cagey affairs and, secondly, Carlisle's last six matches only produced 12 goals.

That might work out at exactly 2.5 per game when combining both teams' totals, but Carlisle drew four of their final six matches. That despite a relatively attacking 4-3-3 formation in the final games. This looks pretty solid, especially if Jamie Walker, on the left, can flit as he pleases into the centre alongside Alex Gilliead. It really needs Jon Mellish or Owen Moxon (their top assists man with 15, say Opta) to step out of the shadows of 20-goal Kristian Dennis and step up past six goals apiece.

Simpson has stressed the Cumbrians need to "start games better" and not give their opposition a goal start. When they do that, they can fly, but recently they have had to keep coming from behind.

I feel they will concede the first goal again and end up on the wrong end of a 2-0 defeat. In the correct score market, that scenario is 12.011/1. To make the most of any goals bet, one would have to combine, on Sportsbook, under 2.5 goals at 1.68/13 and both teams to score "no" at 1.84/5. Still not a big return. On that basis, Bradford to be winning at half-time and full-time has to be considered, too, at 3.613/5 on Sportsbook.

Banks the alternative scorer to top two

It would be a miracle if Bradford full-back Brad Halliday added to his first goal of the season, last weekend, with another. He is 19.018/1 to score at any time in the Sportsbook section.

Frankly it's no surprise to find home striker Andy Cook at the top of the betting for first/any time scorer on Sportsbook at 4.57/2 and 2.56/4 respectively, with Carlisle's key marksman Kristian Dennis closely following him at 6.05/1 on the basis he is away from home. However, there's a surprise candidate equalling Cook's price - Matt Derbyshire.

Clearly the layers are valuing the 37-year-old's experience and potential to add to his one strike (in February) in 11 appearances since signing in January. However, he has started only three games, so it seems a bit of a leap of imagination that the former Birmingham man would start and have an equal chance to Cook's. I understand the threat: he has a strong career goals record of 0.31 per match.

The visitors are in low-scoring mode and likely to be under the cosh against a large crowd, so Owen Moxon's price to score first at 15.014/1 might even look short. He has only six goals this season, the last four games ago and the previous one 10 games before that. For the hosts, I like the price on Palace midfielder Scott Banks, because he has netted twice in the past six games. He is 8.07/1 to score first and 4.57/2 to net at any time, which has to be the counter bet to taking one of the obvious top two.

Put Cook in the recipe for a Bet Builder

Combining some of the above bets in an accumulator with Andy Cook might be the way to spice up a wager on the Bradford talisman.

Cook to score at any time, plus Bradford to win, under 2.5 goals and both teams to score "no" pays 9.14 on Sportsbook.