EFL League One & League Two

Barnsley v Bolton Wanderers League One Playoff Tips: Back few goals at Oakwell

  • Alan Dudman
  • Published on
  • Updated on
  • 4:00 min read
Barnsley manager Michael Duff
Michael Duff's Barnsley had a decent home record during the regular League One season

Alan Dudman correctly predicted the 1-1 Correct Score in the first leg between Barnsley and Bolton, and he is going for another close one at Oakwell on Friday...


Barnsley v Bolton Wanderers

Friday 19th May, kick-off 20:00

Live on Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Football

The Peterborough and Sheffield Wednesday match appeared a complete dead rubber after the first leg, but Friday's fixture at Oakwell is anything but, and it's perfectly poised at 1-1.

Followers of the League One column hopefully traded out the 0-0 Correct Score bet at 9.08/1 as we got to half-time goalless and all square, and we also landed the 1-1 Correct Score bet and draw to put us in good shape for Friday.

Barnsley are 2.982/1 second favourites in the Promotion market, with Bolton 4.67/2.

Barnsley strong at home

Tykes boss Michael Duff appeared the happier of the two from the opening game, citing a good performance and the better chances from his team. He said: " I think we did enough to win. Their goal has come from nothing. It was a disciplined performance against a very good team.

"We kept our shape and structure really well. I can't remember them having many chances, and we had some good chances - their 'keeper has made some good saves."

The Yorkshire club were also strong at home in the regular season despite losing some momentum at the end, and won 16 of their home games, losing six and drawing just once.

Barnsley had 19 shots to Bolton's seven in the 1-1 draw in the first leg, with the Trotters scoring from their only attempt on target in the match.

Bolton Wanderers on decent unbeaten away run

ian evatt bolton 1280.jpg

The one shot on target in the opening leg surely has to be a worry for Bolton boss Ian Evatt, who reflected on the chance to take an advantage in the first 90 minutes: "I know that we can play a lot better than we did today and I think maybe last night's result had a little bit of an impact on us. I think we played in our shells a little, especially in the first half."

The Trotters finished League One this season going unbeaten in their final six away games (W3 D3), though only scored more than one goal once during that run, beating Bristol Rovers 3-2 on the final day.

However, the side finishing fifth in League One have progressed to the playoff final in three of the last four campaigns, after only doing so once in the prior eight seasons.

Match Odds

The hosts, with the home advantage and an anticipated fervent Oakwell crowd are odds-on at 19/20 on the Sportsbook, with Bolton seemingly unfancied completely at 3/1.

The To Qualify market on the Sportsbook is nowhere near as one-sided as the Posh game, with Barnsley 4/9 and Bolton 17/10.

It finished 0-0 between the pair in October in the regular season with the two registering just three shots on target between them over 90 minutes, and the regular season game at Oakwell was a 0-3 success for Wanderers, but a result to treat with caution as Michael Duff's side had Mads Andersen sent off on 10 minutes.

I am taking the two games (including the playoff 1-1) to back the draw again here, as these two are fairly evenly matched.

Bolton won nine on the road during their campaign, but drew seven times, and backing the outright draw in 90 minutes at 12/5 appeals far more than the odds-on price for the hosts.

The 12/5 price or thereabouts on the Exchange also throws up the option to use a back-to-lay.

Back The Draw Barnsley v Bolton

12/5

Under 2.5 Goals looks best option

Duff's team's home xG of 1.58 is not breathtaking, more reasonable, and their xA at Oakwell of 1.12 lends itself to a dart at the Under 2.5 Goals, and I think the 3/4 price on the Sportsbook is more than fair. Indeed, a fraction bigger than how I would have priced it up.

Bolton scored 30 on the road during the season across 23 games and their away xG numbers of 1.33 and 1.47 would again push me towards the unders and 1-1 bets.

Over the 90 minutes in the first game, Bolton were certainly cautious in the first-half and ended up going far too long, but that's credit to Barnsley who are well organised at the back and keep their shape well, and Bolton might have difficulty in breaking them down again.

Back Under 2.5 Goals Barnsley v Bolton

3/4

Bet Builder options

Bolton's Dion Charles has scored in his last two appearances against Barnsley, netting the Trotters' equaliser in the first leg and opening the scoring in their 3-0 win at Oakwell in January.

He has 23 in 58 this term and is 13/5 Anytime Scorer and 6/1 First Goalscorer.

Nicky Cadden netted Barnsley's opener in the first match, and the Scot has finished strongly with three from his last six appearance. The midfielder is 5/1 Anytime. Devante Cole has 16 in 51 this term and is shorter at 2/1 Anytime Scorer.

Using the draw as the base, the 0-0 HT and draw Sportsbook Bet Builder pays around 5/1, but a braver shout would be the 1-1 Correct Score and 5/1 for Either Team To Win Pens - in fact the latter is a decent price for an outright.

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Alan Dudman's League One P & L

2022-23: -6.67pts

(ante post settled)

2017-22: +44.79

*advised to a 0.5pt stake

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Alan Dudman avatar

Alan Dudman

Alan is a long term member of the Betting.Betfair team and has been a broadcaster and writer for over 20 years.

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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