Nottingham Forest v Manchester United: Back Rashford to score again

• Rashford has scored in 8 of his last 9

• Man Utd star worth backing @ 2.829/5 for another goal

• Also, 5/4 Bet Builder for EFL Cup semi-final

I often start these big TV match previews with a bit of a scene-setter but I'm going to cut to the chase on this occasion.

Rashford too big to score

There will be no points for originality but Marcus Rashford looks a good bet to score in Wednesday's Carabao Cup semi-final at the City Ground.

Since returning from the World Cup, the Manchester United forward has played nine games, scoring in eight of them, the latest being Sunday's 3-2 defeat at Arsenal.

I just can't have him at 2.829/5 to score in this match.

The loss at the Emirates was United's first in 11 games (they won nine of the other 10) and its manner was far from depressing.

They more than lived with the league leaders on their own patch for most of the contest and could easily have left with something.

In the end, they struggled to stop the home pressure in the final minutes and were beaten by a 90th-minute goal.

Rashford again showed his eye for goal with a precise strike.

His form is red hot and I'm not convinced the market has caught up.

While he might not be playing at centre-forward, Rashford is an attacker for what is one the best teams in the country right now and I don't think many other forwards on such a run for a team in the top four would be available at this price.

In addition, United, 1.738/11 to win this first leg, are hardly facing top opposition here.

Wobbly Forest

Yes, Forest (5.49/2) have picked up - they've suffered just one defeat in seven in the league - but only Southampton have conceded more goals than Steve Cooper's side.

They looked far from secure at Bournemouth on Saturday when the home side really should have been more than a goal ahead before Sam Surridge's 82nd-minute equaliser.

A repeat of that defensive showing would give United - and Rashford - a great chance of success.

And, before that stat of one in seven scrolls off the page, let's remember that the one loss came at the hands of United, who cantered to a 3-0 win at Old Trafford last month.

In this rematch, the onus will be on Forest to attack ahead of next week's second leg but they've struggled against the elite so far this season.

On home soil, they've played five games against sides currently in the top half of the Premier League, winning only one, and that was against a Liverpool team who probably still don't know how they failed to score.

Dean Henderson played a blinder that day but he's not available for this tie. Taiwo Awoniyi and Cheik Kouyate are set to be other notable absentees.

Away from the City Ground, Forest have played all of the top four (United are currently fourth) and have lost all four games by a combined scoreline of 0-16.

That would suggest they need to try to take something with them to Manchester next week but front-foot tactics against United's counter-attacking skills are asking for trouble.

For United, Casemiro returns from suspension which will be a boon for their chances - and Rashford's.

Unlike Forest, United do have a weekend game sandwiched between the two semi-final legs but a home FA Cup tie with Reading will surely play second fiddle to this, ensuring a strong side is put out.

5/4 Bet Builder

With more certainty surrounding team selection than most Carabao Cup ties, it's also worth heading to the props markets for a Bet Builder.

There are a couple of short prices I like which create an odds-against shot.

Forest striker Brennan Johnson has committed 1+ foul in 15 of his 20 Forest starts this season so I'm more than happy to stick him down for another in a big game like this where the home fans are really going to lift players' energy levels.

I've also been keen to get with Gustavo Scarpa in the shots markets early in his Forest career.

He racked up some big numbers for Palmeiras in Brazil last season (one which ended in November). Excluding the state competition, he hit at least two shots in 34 of his 40 starts. In 19 of those he had 4+.

For Forest, his three starts so far have produced make-ups of 6-1-3.

Admittedly he was only a sub at Bournemouth but with Ryan Yates doubtful due to illness and Chris Wood cup-tied, expect the Brazilian to return here and land 2+ shots again.

The double pays 5/4.

Obviously for those seeking a bigger price, a Rashford goal could be added to that, while the aforementioned Yates has been delivering 2+ shots and 2+ fouls regularly of late.

Both will be worth considering if he does recover and makes the starting XI.

Opta fact

Marcus Rashford has scored nine goals in his last 10 League Cup games, including four in three appearances this season.

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