EFL Cup Tips

Manchester United v Newcastle League Cup Tips: Ten Hag to bag first trophy

Manchester United boss Erik ten Hag
Erik ten Hag can land his first piece of silverware for Manchester United

Manchester United can end their wait for a trophy and extend Newcastle's even longer drought by taking victory at Wembley on Sunday...


Man Utd head to Wembley after Barca boost

If Manchester United were looking for the perfect send off for their first trip to a Wembley Cup final since 2017, they got it at Old Trafford on Thursday night.

Trailing 1-0 to Robert Lewandowski's penalty, a goal that gave Barcelona a 3-2 aggregate lead, United hit back with strikes from Fred and Antony to secure their passage into the last 16 of the Europa League. Friday's draw paired them with another Spanish outfit, Real Betis.

A delighted Erik ten Hag said: "When you can beat Barcelona, one of the best teams at this moment in Europe then your belief can be really strong then you are able to beat anyone.

"When you [Barca] are eight points ahead of Real Madrid in La Liga and you beat Real Madrid in the Super Cup 1-3 and we have seen Real Madrid playing against Liverpool this week [winning 5-2] and you beat a really good opponent, we have the potential to beat all good teams."

United have racked up no less than 16 wins in their last 20 matches in all competitions, drawing three of the other four. The one blemish was a 3-2 loss at leaders Arsenal and that in the 90th minute.

They reached the final thanks to victories over Aston Villa, Burnley, Charlton and Nottingham Forest, winning their two-legged semi-final against the latter 5-0 on aggregate.

Pope dismissal hangs over Newcastle

While Manchester United's build-up was ideal, it couldn't have gone any worse for Newcastle.

Not only did they lose 2-0 at home to Liverpool last weekend, a result which saw them slip out of the top four after Spurs beat West Ham the following day, the Magpies saw Nick Pope red carded for handling outside the box.

The punishment? A three-match ban starting with Sunday's showdown at Wembley. And with second-string goalkeeper Martin Dubravka cup-tied having played for Man Utd earlier in the tournament, Loris Karius is set to get the nod between the sticks.

It's a neat idea - and perhaps one to play if you like a dose of 'it's in the stars' with your Bet Builders - but Karius being the hero for Newcastle on Sunday? Not for me, Clive.

I'm not against the notion of the German goalkeeper hurling himself around to keep out a few spot-kicks in a shootout but I don't think he'll get the chance to play out the redemption story following his nightmare performance for Liverpool in the 2018 Champions League Cup final against Real Madrid.

Newcastle's home loss to Liverpool means they've won just four times in their last 11 matches, a far cry from their run from the start of October to Boxing Day when the Magpies won nine and drew two in an unbeaten 11-game stretch.

They reached the final after seeing off Tranmere, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Leicester and Southampton in the semis.

Man Utd can get it done in 90 minutes

Perhaps the cruelest Opta stat doing the rounds ahead of this one is that Newcastle have lost their last eight matches at Wembley, the longest ever losing run by a team in Wembley history.

But I think it's recent history the Magpies have more to be worried about on Sunday as they go into the game in modest form and run into an opponent absolutely flying.

The 90-minute odds show Man Utd at 2.285/4, with Newcastle 3.613/5 and The Draw 3.412/5.

To lift the trophy either in 90 minutes, extra-time or on penalties, it's Man Utd at 1.625/8 and Newcastle 2.546/4.

The two played out a 0-0 draw at Old Trafford in October but, remember, that came during Newcastle's hot run which included a 5-1 hammering of Brentford and a 2-1 win at Tottenham.

Back Man Utd to beat Newcastle in 90 minutes @

2.28

With Pope out, that's all I really need to pull the trigger on Man Utd at that price. Ten Hag's team were the likely fancy anyway but the England goalkeeper's misjudgement against Liverpool adds further confidence that it'll be red and white scarfs flying at the end of 90 minutes.

Back Man Utd to win in regulation time.

Bet Builder can play on time-wasting

One theme of Ten Hag's press conference ahead of the game was the focus on Newcastle's time-wasting tactics and what he could do to counter them.

Newcastle may say they're not the only team to run down the clock when it suits them but their antics at Anfield earlier in the season bordered on the ridiculous.

Whatever the rights or wrongs, it's a tactic Eddie Howe could lean on and it paves the way for a cover bet for those backing Man Utd.

This is the scenario: the game is level, time is ticking and Man Utd are pushing for a winner. Newcastle are trying to get through to extra time and hopefully penalties so, let's just say, a lot of cramp is occuring and Karius is taking a long time over his goal-kicks.

A Bet Builder which takes that into account is The Draw and Newcastle to receive most cards and it comes out at 5.49/2.

True, Man Utd have had more yellows this season but, for this one-off game, Newcastle may have more routes to potential bookings, especially with referee David Coote under pressure from Ten Hag to watch out for deliberate delaying tactics.

It could be a good bet to have for those stressing over a Man Utd win. Rather than hurling insults at Newcastle, cheer them on as they waste time, pick up yellows and hold out for a draw!

Back The Draw and Newcastle to receive most cards on Bet Builder @

5.4

Antony at the double again

With fitness doubts over Marcus Rashford at the time of writing I'm going to look elsewhere for a goalscorer bet.

The one I like is Antony having spotted a pattern in his scoring.

It's fair to say the Brazilian hasn't fully delivered yet but firing home the winner against Barcelona on Thursday night won over a few doubters. And if this season is anything to go by, there's another goal around the corner.

Back Antony to score anytime @

4.8

Going back to the start of the season, he scored in his final game for Ajax and first for United; in October he netted in back-to-back Premier League games; in January he registered in successive outings when scoring against Everton in the FA Cup and Charlton in this competition.

In other words, Antony's goals have come in pairs so, with his tail up, perhaps the Brazilian midfield trickster can repeat that trend with a strike here.

Ten Hag has been starting him in the Carabao Cup so let's play Antony to score anytime at 4.84/1.

Finally, Both teams to Score is the underdog at 1.9110/11 while the market also expects Under 2.5 goals which is 1.824/5.

With Pope out and Newcastle having to rely on a goalkeeper woefully short of first-team action, it would seem fair to look at Over 2.5 at 2.166/5.

Opta stat

Manchester United have won two of their three League Cup meetings with Newcastle (L1), with this the first since a 2-1 home win in September 2012.

Recommended bets

Staked: 38.70pts

Returned: 32.88pts

P/L: -5.82pts

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Dave Tindall avatar

Dave Tindall

Dave is a passionate sports fan with a particular love for football, golf and snooker and he is one of Betfair's long-standing football and golf tipsters

Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.

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