Opta Predicts Newcastle v Liverpool EFL Cup Final: Reds to lift trophy in 55/1 Bet Builder

• No stroll in the park for Liverpool at Wembley

• Salah and Isak the obvious goalscoring choices

• Back Reds to edg it in extra-time in 55/156.00 Bet Builder

The first silverware of the season is up for grabs at Wembley on Sunday as Liverpool and Newcastle meet to decide the winner of the EFL Cup.

There's a lot to get through in this preview, so let's get stuck in.

Expect a tight game at Wembley

As the team who played most recently, it makes sense to look at Liverpool first after what has been a bruising week for them. The Premier League leaders were knocked out of the Champions League by Paris Saint-Germain on penalties in midweek, having lost 1-0 after extra time at home in the second leg.

It is important to caveat that defeat, which was undoubtedly Liverpool's lowest moment since Arne Slot took over last summer, with their level of dominance in the Premier League. They are currently 15 points clear at the top of the division and could have the title wrapped up by 12 April with just two more victories.

So, regardless of the competition, it is clear that we are dealing with one of the world's best sides here. Liverpool are also top of the Opta Power Rankings, while PSG are third and Newcastle are down in 11th.

But Tuesday's defeat was just Liverpool's second at Anfield in any competition this season and, such has been their lack of any major setbacks, we are yet to see them respond to much adversity. 

What we do know, though, is that since Liverpool's 2-2 draw at home to Manchester United - a match that many expected the former to romp, with United 14th in the Premier League and coming off the back of four straight defeats at the time - their relentless pace has slowed.

In the 27 matches in all competitions prior to that draw at Anfield, Liverpool's win percentage was 85.2% (W23). Including that draw and since then, Liverpool have won just 57.9% of their 19 games in all competitions (W11).

That drop in form looks even more stark when you consider that Liverpool have won just four of their last 10 matches away from Anfield (D3 L3), having previously won 12 and drawn two of the other 14 games on the road.

Considering Liverpool's prohibitively short price of 8/131.61 in the win/draw/win market, the above statistics offer us a way to get Newcastle onside despite their opposition being likelier winners.

With Liverpool's recent struggles largely coming on the road, it is worth taking a look back at when these sides met at St James' Park on 4 December. Newcastle earned a deserved point on that day, drawing 3-3 after taking the lead on two occasions.

Eddie Howe's side outshot (17-16) and outgunned Liverpool in terms of xG (2.09-1.99), with the visitors having previously been on a run of 15 victories and one draw in last 16 matches in all competitions.

So, we know that Newcastle can compete against the best and they showed that again in the EFL Cup semi-final when beating Arsenal 2-0 both home and away. Newcastle have lost just one of their eight matches in all competitions against teams currently in the Premier League's top three - a 2-0 reversal at Anfield last month.

Despite that defeat, there is a strong case for expecting a competitive affair instead of the comfortable Liverpool win that the prices would have you believe. 

Liverpool are appearing in a record 15th EFL Cup final - five more than any other team - but each of their last five finals in this tournament have been level after 90 minutes. For context, Liverpool matches account for four of the last five times the EFL Cup final has gone to extra time. At 16/54.20, the draw looks appealing.

Liverpool defence no longer watertight

Liverpool have conceded the first goal in three of their last six matches, with their once-impermeable defence creaking from time to time recently. Ousmane Dembele's goal for PSG on Tuesday was an example of this, coming from a defensive mix-up between Ibrahima Konate and Alisson.

Following that game, Liverpool have now kept just three clean sheets in nine in all competitions. So, we can expect Newcastle to get on the scoresheet with over 0.5 away goals looking a decent price at 2/51.40. Should Liverpool's trend of conceding first continue, then Newcastle also look good value to win either half at 17/102.70. A Newcastle lead at 30 minutes, meanwhile, is worth considering at 5/23.50 given that they have scored before that mark in four of their last seven matches.

But a trademark of Liverpool under Slot has been their ability to grind out results when things are not going their way in-game. An example of this is the 1-0 away victory they managed to plunder in the first leg against PSG, despite having been outplayed - they had two shots to PSG's 27.

They have also won 19 points from losing positions in the Premier League this season - more than any other team - which includes the point gained in the 3-3 draw at St James' Park.

Liverpool have only failed to score on four occasions in 46 matches in all competitions this season, so BTTS is a simple pick at 6/101.60. It is also worth noting that cup finals do not tend to be goal fests - there has been more than one goal in just two of the last six EFL Cup finals - so the 13/27.50 available for a 1-1 correct score is worth looking at, as is 5/42.25 for under 2.5 goals. 

Liverpool are also available at 15/28.50 to win the cup in extra time, just as they did against Chelsea last season.

Look to Salah and Isak in individual markets

There are two unsurprising big hitters who it is a good idea to look at in the individual markets in this game.

First up is - pretend to be shocked - Mohamed Salah. The Egyptian has been directly involved in 54 goals in all competitions this season (32 goals, 22 assists). He also has 18 goal contributions in his last 16 appearances against Newcastle (10 goals, eight assists).

In the Premier League, he has generated the highest xG of any player (22.15) and the second highest xA (expected assists) figure with 7.01. As a result, it is hard to dissuade anyone from the 8/131.61 about Salah to score or assist despite the short price.

But, given that he comes into this with 11 goals in his last 12 appearances, it makes more sense from a value perspective to back him for a goal at 11/102.11 - it is rare to find him at an odds-against price in this market.

From a Newcastle perspective, we're looking at - you guessed it - Alexander Isak. But there is method to this, given that he is rated at the fourth-likeliest scorer as per the odds. Isak has got three goals in his last three appearances and 22 in all competitions this season, including the opener when he last faced Liverpool in December.

The Swede has been directly involved with four goals in his last five appearances against Liverpool (three goals, one assist), with two of his three goals putting Newcastle a goal up. He is available at 15/82.88 to score anytime, but he could also be worth backing to score first at 11/26.50 having done so on five of the last nine occasions he has found the net.

But, after coming off the bench against PSG to feature for the first time since late February, Cody Gakpo is worth siding with in a Build Ups bet for shots and/or goals, should he start. 

Gakpo loves this competition. He is the top scorer in this season's EFL Cup with five goals, while he has also had nine shots on target in five appearances - more than any other player. Since making his tournament debut in September 2023, he has scored nine times, which is five more goals than any other player has managed. 

At 5/23.50 to have at least two shots on target, Gakpo looks a great bet although it's worth waiting for the team news on that one.

Liverpool v Newcastle Bet builder

Given everything we've said above, the following bet builder is available on the sportsbook at around 55/156.00:

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