Carabao Cup Final Tips: Spurs are now an unknown quantity. Back the upset.

Just a few short days ago all the smart money for this Sunday's Carabao Cup final would have been reserved for Manchester City.

Tottenham's results, going all the way back to mid-December have been a real cause for concern and unquestionably they were in the doldrums under Jose Mourinho with the situation appearing to worsen week on week. The football had become stagnant. The atmosphere had grown toxic.

City meanwhile had their sights fixed on a quadruple. With Kevin De Bruyne conducting proceedings and a funky, forward-less formation confounding one and all, the Blues were breezing past every obstacle put before them; imperious and seemingly unstoppable.

It felt like a no-brainer that Pep Guardiola's men would win a sixth League Cup in eight years, leaving Spurs trophyless once again.

Only then City lost their FA Cup semi-final and granted it's a little too neat to wonder if a 'top six' side from the capital can beat them relatively comfortably at Wembley why can't it happen again, but it's worth noting all the same. Just as it's pertinent that early in the second half De Bruyne limped off and won't feature for the foreseeable.

Then, on Monday morning, as sudden and unexpected as it was overdue and anticipated, Mourinho was sacked. And that changes everything.

Mystery on their side

Logic dictates that it is the lesser of two evils to have a failing and unpopular man at the helm than to be rudderless, which is what Spurs are at present after relinquishing their manager six days before a domestic final. That logic though crumbles under scrutiny.

Because what Spurs possess now, going into their biggest game since adventuring around Europe in 2019 is the immense plus of unpredictability.

Let's face it, we all know what kind of Tottenham would have turned up on Sunday under the Portuguese perma-scowler. Cautious. Constrained. Looking for a set-piece or opening so they could sit on their lead only then being incapable of doing so.

Yet can anyone truthfully claim they are confident about who will be lining up against the champions-elect at Wembley? Who will start? What formation they will deploy?

It might be that Spurs are all at sea and beaten easily. Or conceivably the players will be liberated, revitalized after training all week under their well-liked former team-mate Ryan Mason.

Here are two things to consider. Firstly, the cliché of a 'new manager bounce' often gives undue credence to the incoming gaffer when in fact it's the departure of his predecessor that is most relevant. And the phenomenon is alive and well. In the results that have immediately followed the last 15 sackings in the Premier League, teams have won five, drawn five and lost five. That's not too shabby for sides in crisis. In a third of them they have kept clean sheets.

And crucially, if we have no earthly clue as to what shape Tottenham will be in at the weekend then neither does Pep.

For a side packed with such quality to be 4/1 going into a major final against a top-flight peer is tremendous value, especially when they might be unrecognizable from their recent selves.

Coping without Kane

It is of course not only Kevin De Bruyne who will be absent for this one. Harry Kane too is a serious doubt and that naturally leads us to conclude that Spurs will be significantly weakened. How could they not be when we're talking about a forward who has been directly involved in 43% of his side's overall goal-haul in 2020/21.

But though the prolific England striker would be greatly missed by any team it should be acknowledged that Tottenham tend to cope rather well in his absence.

Kane has started 30 Premier League games this season, with Spurs accruing 50 points from the possible 90. In the last 30 Premier League matches he has missed through injury they have amassed 49 points.

Staying with their forward line, might Tottenham find compensation in the return of Gareth Bale who has been cast to the margins in recent weeks? The Welsh superstar has proven time and again that he relishes the big occasions and will be highly motivated to shine.

Whoever grabs the headlines let's not get carried away, however. Tottenham to win by exactly 1 goal is 7/1 and combine this with Tottenham to win the first half 1-0 in the Bet Builder market.

Fortitude and frustration

We can perhaps focus too much on the current circumstances at both clubs and overlook that Spurs have been a real thorn in City's side these past two seasons.

Only once have they lost to Guardiola's grand creation and the nature of their two victories and hard-earned draw reveals they have the defensive fortitude to truly frustrate this weekend's opponents.

Indeed, that is an under-statement because the stats from those three games are pretty astonishing.

On leaving the Etihad with a point a couple of weeks into last term to subsequently winning both their league games on home soil, Spurs can boast a 6-2 aggregate score-line. Yet City racked up 71 shots to Tottenham's 10 in those fixtures and wherever you look the disparity of the figures to the results amaze. Corners? 71 to 4.

Should a couple of chances go awry for the Blues then don't be surprised if these recent smash-and-grabs plays on their minds.

It's not unknown for League Cup finals to produce high-scoring games but expect this one to go against the grain. Back the 17/20 for under 2.5 goals.

City stretched

Again, it would be wrong to get carried away and suggest that this formidable City side are on a down-turn. Only last week they out-manoeuvred Dortmund to reach a Champions League semi.

But what is fair is to question if their redoubtable form is slightly waning following a league loss to Leeds and their fruitless journey to Wembley last week and this no doubt would be a result of fighting on four fronts throughout the duration of 2020/21. We have seen before successful teams stutter to the finish line from such a relentless and demanding schedule. Might it be happening here?

What is certainly true is that no side in their right mind would want to take on this superb collective. But if they absolutely had to, they would choose the opening couple of weeks of this season or now.

If you're willing to back the outsiders a good insurance bet is the 22/1 available for Spurs to prevail in extra-time.