Watford v Nottingham Forest: Oppose goals between in-form pair

Mark O'Haire
05 March 2021
3 min read

Watford boast eight shutouts in their past 14 Championship contests

Join

View market

Twitter

Facebook

View the Betslip

Promotion-chasing Watford welcome resurgent Nottingham Forest to Vicarage Road for Saturday's early Championship kick-off. Mark O'Haire shares his favourite fancy.

"It’s landed in 10 (67%) of 15 Watford outings under Xisco Munoz, as well as 18/30 (60%) of Forest’s fixtures during Chris Hughton’s reign"

Watford v Nottingham Forest
Saturday March 6, 12:30
Sky Sports

Gray's brace key for Watford

Andre Gray's first brace in almost four years helped Watford beat Wycombe on Wednesday in the Championship and push the Hornets level on points with second-placed Brentford. Gray, in for the suspended Joao Pedro, scored for just the second time in 34 matches as the hosts made a great start, with Tom Cleverley and Ismaila Sarr also having chances.

Watford had more than 70% possession in the first half and continued to batter away at the Chairboys before Gray put the game beyond Wycombe's reach and completed the scoring shortly before the hour mark. But such was the Hornets' dominance at Vicarage Road, a third could easily have been in the offing with Sarr and Philip Zinckernagel going close.

Post-match, a pleased Watford head coach Xisco Munoz said: "We are thinking that today was a good performance. Every day we try to give better things for tactics, I think we are fitter and every day we are improving. We have a very good squad and the most important thing is whoever stays in the first team gives the maximum for the team."

Forest felled by Luton last time out

Nottingham Forest were made to pay for some wasteful finishing as Luton snatched a 1-0 win at the City Ground on Tuesday night. The in-form Reds made a fast start to proceedings and enjoyed much the better of the first half; Glenn Murray missed two excellent chances, teed up by the impressive Anthony Knockaert, while Joe Lolley also went close.

Forest kept probing for an opener but entered the break on level terms and faded after the break. Chris Hughton's side were second-best after half-time and allowed the Hatters' the opportunity to pinch the points when Ryan Tunnicliffe snuck in unmarked to meet a cross from Pelly-Ruddock Mpanzu. From that point on Forest toiled in an attempt to equalise.

Post-match Hughton admitted, "It's frustrating. First half we played really well and had some very good chances. If you go through a period where you don't take your chances, you know the opposition will have some. To come in at 0-0 [at half-time] Luton would've been lifted by that, but I'm disappointed we didn't create anything after their goal."

Hornets dominating the division under Xisco

The two teams have met just once in league action over the past six years with the reverse showdown ending goalless at the City Ground. And draws 3.3512/5 have tended to be commonplace when the duo lock horns at Vicarage Road - head back to the beginning of 2002/03 and the pair have shared the spoils in six of 10 league encounters at Vicarage Road.

Watford 2.001/1 have been one of the division's form sides since Xisco Munoz was brought in. The Hornets have registered W9-D2-L3 to join the automatic promotion hunt, whilst underlying performance data suggests the visitors have been the Championship's most dominant and best performing side over those 16 games, highlighting the turnaround.

Nottingham Forest 4.607/2 have endured only three losses in 15 Championship contests since mid-December (W7-D6-L3) as Chris Hughton guides the Tricky Trees to safer waters. However, the majority of the Reds' most positive performances have come when taking on sides outside the upper echelon of the division, posting W1-D6-L12 against the top-13.

Oppose goals between organised defences

Watford have largely refound their defensive resilience of late. The Hornets boast eight shutouts in their past 14 Championship contests, and 12 clean sheets in 22 going further back. That's meant goal-heavy games have been reasonably hard to come by - the hosts have seen Over 2.5 Goals 2.3611/8 land in only seven of 23 league encounters since mid-November.

Only seven of Nottingham Forest's 30 Championship contests under Chris Hughton have eclipsed the Over 2.5 Goals barrier, with five of the Reds' most recent six producing no more than a solitary strike. A massive 14/17 (82%) of the Tricky Trees' road trips have featured fewer than three goals with six of those matches also rewarding Under 1.5 Goals backers.

With Under 2.5 Goals too short to support at 1.618/13, it may instead pay to take 'No' in the Both Teams To Score column at 1.814/5. It's landed in 10 (67%) of 15 Watford outings under Xisco Munoz, as well as 18/30 (60%) of Forest's fixtures during Chris Hughton's reign.