Swansea v Middlesbrough: Swans too strong for Boro

Mark O'Haire
05 March 2021
3 min read

Swansea have only lost six Championship games this season

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Swansea are eyeing up automatic promotion this season but face a tricky test against play-off chasing Middlesbrough on Saturday. Mark O'Haire previews the encounter.

"It’s a selection that’s paid out in 13 of the Swans’ 17 home outings, as well as eight of Boro’s 13 fixtures with the top-10 this term"

Swansea v Middlesbrough
Saturday March 6, 15:00
Sky Sports

Swansea earn vital late success

Andre Ayew's last-gasp penalty gave Swansea a contentious 2-1 victory at Stoke on Wednesday night and saw the Welsh close the gap on the automatic promotion places to a single point. Ayew converted in the 96th minute after Jack Clarke was adjudged to have tripped Kyle Naughton, a decision that left home boss Michael O'Neill fuming.

But opposite number Steve Cooper celebrated with his staff after seeing the Swans snatch a welcome win following two defeats in their previous three games. The visitors did so by coming from behind to pinch maximum points, Connor Roberts levelling with a fine volley midway through the first-half after Nick Powell punished Marc Guehi for a sloppy mistake.

Cooper made four changes to the side that suffered a second half capitulation against Bristol City last weekend and was pleased with his freshened up side. He said: "You never give up and you keep going. That's what happened. We played well. We had a difficult start to the game but we stuck to the plan, got back in the game and scored an excellent goal."

Middlesbrough get back on track

Middlesbrough came from behind to beat Coventry and reignite their Championship play-off push in midweek. Neil Warnock's side had taken just a single point from home games against Bristol City and Cardiff, but have registered back-to-back away victories to keep them within three points of the top-six as we enter the final furlong.

In a scrappy game overall, the Teessiders showed massive improvements on a poor first half with Warnock's four second half changes all making an impact as George Saville's late strike proved decisive. Coventry had gone ahead early on when Boro centre-back Anfernee Dijksteel diverted the ball into his own net after a long throw-in caused confusion.

The visitors improved and were rewarded shortly before half-time when Grant Hall headed in Paddy McNair's free-kick to level. But Boro edged proceedings, to Warnock's delight: "I thought we deserved it in the end - particularly with our second half. I always thought in the second half we could play better and the substitutes made that key difference."

Swans strong at the Liberty

Swansea and Middlesbrough have been reasonably regular foes since 2009/10, meeting on 11 occasions in the Championship over the past decade. The Swans have enjoyed slight W5-D3-L3 supremacy in that sample, taking top honours in three of the past four renewals, as well as taking a W3-D1-L0 return in the duos past four fixtures at the Liberty Stadium.

Swansea 2.407/5 are amongst the leading pack having been beaten only six times in their opening 32 outings (W18-D8-L6). Steve Cooper's troops' have proven to be rock-solid competitors, giving few opportunities away, and shipping multiple goals in only five fixtures. The hosts also boast the third-best home record in the division, returning W10-D5-L2 here.

Middlesbrough 3.3512/5 suffered six Championship defeats in nine following Christmas to lose vital ground on the top-six (W2-D1-L6). But Neil Warnock's troops have arrested their worryingly slide with an improved W3-D1-L1 upturn since Valentine's Day to move back into contention. And Boro's W4-D6-L3 record against fellow top-10 teams commands respect

Shootout unlikely in South Wales

Only five Championship clubs are seeing fewer goals per-game than Swansea's total of 2.00 this season as a huge 25/32 (75%) of games have produced Under 2.5 Goals 1.608/13. At the Liberty Stadium, 13 of the 17 Swans' fixtures have featured fewer than three goals as Steve Cooper's men have kept 11 shutouts, conceding just nine goals in total.

Visitors Middlesbrough have struggled to find the same consistency to their early season defensive displays. The Teessiders have only managed two shutouts in their past 15 tussles - 10 of which paid out for Over 2.5 Goals 2.3611/8 backers - although it's difficult to see Saturday's showdown descending into a shootout.

Instead, I'll combine Under 2.5 Goals alongside Swansea Double Chance in the Same Game Multi for a 1.9620/21 shot at the Liberty Stadium. It's a selection that's paid out in 13 of the Swans' 17 home outings, as well as eight of Boro's 13 fixtures with the top-10 this term.