Sunderland v Sheffield United: Back the Blades at 5/4

• Huge top of the table Championship clash

• Bit of luck favouring Black Cats at home?

• Functional Blades improving on the road

Sunderland v Sheffield United
New Year's Day, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

An even match up

Sunderland host Sheffield United at the Stadium of Light knowing victory will take them within two points of their visitors, who enter the day in second, and that defeat will leave them eight points adrift of the automatic promotion spots.

The Blades got the better of the reverse fixture, the lesser seen Tom Davies popping up with a late winner after both sides had been reduced to ten men prior to the half-time whistle.

Both sides have played six games since then, winning three, drawing two and losing one. Sunderland's defeat came last time out at managerless Stoke City while Sheffield United were defeated by Burnley - just their third loss of the season.

Can the Black Cats continue their unbeaten home record or will Chris Wilder's Blades collect an important three points at the home of fellow promotion candidates?

Sunderland Le Bri(s)lliant

Regis Le Bris is yet to lose in front of his own fans but things have been more challenging of late. His side won their first four at the Stadium of Light without conceding a goal but have conceded in five of their last seven and drawn four of those.

If you wanted reason to get behind the visitors: they have beaten the sides placed 12th, 18th and 20th and drawn with those placed 1st, 8th, 10th and 15th, with a note being that the side placed 15th, Coventry City, have some of the best underlying numbers in the division.

It's a sign that while Sunderland remain a good side, they aren't unbeatable and have come a little unstuck against some of the better sides in the division. The four draws have come against sides in the top nine for xGD on the road.

Meanwhile, their attacking numbers have slightly dipped at home, creating less than 1xG in three of their last five while they enter this one without Chris Rigg, Tommy Watson and Romaine Mundle.

Nothing Wild(er) about Sheffield United

All the above isn't to claim Sunderland aren't a good team, as noted. But it does give Sheffield United more of a chance if their impressive opposition aren't creating the same level of chances, are missing some key attackers and the back door has creaked open.

It's particularly notable when the Blades are so often involved in tight matches and often on the right side of the margins - just 21% of their matches have had over 2.5 goals scored with the Yorkshire outfit keeping clean sheets in 62% of their games.

Their away form is improving too. They have collected six more points in their most recent six matches away from home than in their first six while their xGD has improved by 4.8. They have conceded more than 1xG in just two of the more recent matches while creating at least 1.2xG in five.

It should be a tight affair given the way both sides play. It's more likely to be tighter and scrappier given the schedule (both teams have played Saturday 21st, Thursday 26th and Sunday 29th, while also having another game on Saturday 4th). And the Blades are performing just as well on the road recently as the Black Cats are on the road.

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