Sunderland v Middlesbrough: Back in-form Boro in Tees-Wear derby

• Sunderland have won 3/17 against the top-17

• Boro top the xP and xG form tables under Carrick

• Both sides have propensity for goals

Red cards halt's Sunderland recent run

Luke O'Nien's first-half red card proved to be a major turning point as Sunderland's four-game unbeaten Championship streak came to an end against Swansea at the Stadium of Light last Saturday. The Black Cats defender was sent off for a late lunge on Oli Cooper inside the opening 20 minutes, leaving Tony Mowbray's men short for over 70 minutes.

Sunderland had started on the front foot before the dismissal changed the course of the contest. Swansea went in front just after half-time, but Dan Neil levelled things up midway through the half. However, a cruel ricochet off Luke Cullen restored the Swans' lead minutes later, and the visitors' made the game safe 10 minutes from time to clinch a 3-1 success.

Mowbray said: "When it was 11 v 11, I think we were very good. I felt a real intensity about the team. Swansea were struggling to get the ball over the halfway line. Ultimately it turned into a long afternoon against the team with the best possession stats in the league."

Lynden Gooch came into the side, Anthony Patterson was restored in goal, Corry Evans and Jack Clarke returned in midfield, while Ross Stewart started up front as Mowbray made changes following the side's FA Cup exploits. Danny Batth will step-in for the suspended O'Nien, whilst Niall Huggins, Dennis Cirkin, Aji Alese and Alex Pritchard remain doubts.

Middlesbrough continue climbing

Middlesbrough climbed to fourth in the Championship table with a narrow 1-0 victory against fellow play-off contenders Millwall at The Riverside last week. Dominating for almost an hour, Boro finally found a deserved goal through Finland striker Marcus Forss' delightful finish, maintaining their remarkable turnaround under Michael Carrick.

With Millwall then showing more intent than prior to the opening strike, the unchanged Teessiders - missing their defensive orchestrator in Darragh Lenihan - had to show their mettle in the final stages to hold onto their advantage. They claimed three huge points in the race for the top-six with their seventh success in eight league encounters.

Speaking post-match, Carrick said: "I'm delighted, not just with the win but really pleased with the first half, how we played and controlled it. The changing room is a good place after 1-0 wins where you have to dig in, because the boys really earned it."

Matt Crooks continued up front against Millwall, meaning big January loan signing Cameron Archer was forced to make his debut from the bench. Carrick could look to shuffle his pack on Sunday with Isaiah Jones aiming for a recall to the squad and Lenihan's involvement still considered doubtful.

In-form Boro favourites at Stadium of Light

Sunderland have rarely enjoyed the Tees-Wear derby and come into their latest clash with Middlesbrough winless in six head-to-head meetings (W0-D2-L4). The Black Cats have claimed only four triumphs in 21 recent league match-ups with Boro (W4-D6-L11) over the past two decades, although on home soil in this fixture Sunderland are W3-D2-L4 lately.

Sunderland 3.052/1 have made a solid start to life back in the second-tier and have managed to consolidate inside the top-half despite Alex Neil's departure at the end of August. The Black Cats have posted W8-D6-L7 under Mowbray, although the Wearsiders' have tended to fall short when facing the league's elite, returning W3-D6-L8 against the top-16.

Middlesbrough 2.506/4 were one point off the bottom-three when Michael Carrick was appointed in late October, but Boro have undergone a sensational transition. The Teessiders have tabled W8-D1-L2 across their past 11 Championship dates to glide into the top-six, including seven victories in their past eight (and five triumphs from six on their travels).

Goals forecast in derby dust-up

Both Sunderland and Middlesbrough have been fun to follow this season with the two teams operating inside the top-10 for goals per-game in the Championship.

Sunderland have scored in 13 of their last 15 league outings, with 14 of those fixtures featuring a minimum of two goals. Meanwhile, Middlesbrough have notched in 14 of their previous 16 in the Championship, striking at least twice in seven of their most recent 10 contests. Thirteen of Boro's last 15 matches have also produced Over 1.5 Goals.

I'm keen to support goals in Sunday's showdown and combining Over 1.5 Goals with Middlesbrough Double Chance holds plenty of appeal at 1.784/5. The visitors have caught the eye under Michael Carrick and top the 12-game Expected Points (xP) and Expected Goals (xG) charts in the Championship, highlighting their promotion prospects.