Sunderland v Luton Town Championship play-offs: Back the Hatters to come out on top

• Cirkin and Gooch compound Sunderland injury woes

• Luton unbeaten in 14 and 2nd best away side

• Black Cats vulnerable favourites at home

Black Cats walking wounded

A dramatic six goal swing between The Den and Deepdale on final day saw Sunderland swoop in and steal the final Championship play-off berth from Millwall.

Sunderland is often a club burdened with expectation given both its size and recent malaise, but given this is their first season back in the second tier, a Top 6 finish was unexpected and this feels like something of a free hit for Tony Mowbray's side.

Their participation here is made all the more impressive when considering the injury woes that have blighted their season.

Talisman striker Ross Stewart only managed 11 starts, for example, but the more pressing concern heading into this tie is in their defence.

Danny Batth and Aji Alese will be missing, and Dan Ballard is also not expected to be risked, meaning their three recognised specialist centre-backs are out.

A patched-up back four did well to keep a clean sheet at Preston, but in Lyndon Gooch and Dennis Cirkin two of them were taken off injured and they are also doubts for at least this first leg.

Four wins in their last six suggests these absentees haven't impacted Sunderland, but they will come under serious scrutiny here and it's hard to ignore the missing personnel when analysing their chances.

Hatters happy travellers

When Luton Town lost Nathan Jones, the expectation from many was that their unlikely persistence in trying to reach the top flight would finally wane, but under former Watford boss Rob Edwards the opposite has been the case.

Muscling their way to a third placed finish and coming into the play-offs in the midst of a 14-game unbeaten run, nobody should underestimate Luton's Premier League credentials.

Unlike their counterparts, they have few injury issues and most of their key players will come into this one fresh.

Carlton Morris has been the star man with 20 goals and seven assists and, along with others such as Elijah Adebayo, Tom Lockyer and Cody Drameh, he was rested for the final day stalemate against Hull.

Luton's season has been built on a resolute defence and imperious away record, with only Champions Burnley conceding fewer goals and picking up more points on the road.

Their away record is especially pertinent against Sunderland, given they have not enjoyed playing at the Stadium of Light this season, winning just seven of their 23 games and ranking 16th in the division for points won at home.

Sunderland late run stats

Sunderland reached the Championship play-offs despite only earning 69 points this season, the first time a team has reached the Championship play-offs despite earning fewer than 70 points since Leicester in 2012-13 (68).

The Black Cats only spent 51 days in the top-six this season, seven fewer than relegated Reading did (58).

This is their eighth EFL play-off campaign, and fourth in the last five seasons, also taking part in the League One play-offs in 2018-19, 2020-21 and 2021-22.

At this level, it is their first play-off campaign since 2003-04, losing in the semi-finals to Crystal Palace.

Luton are featuring in their fourth EFL play-off campaign - they have failed to win promotion from any of their previous three, going out in the semi-finals each time: 1996-97 in the third tier, 2016-17 in League Two and in 2021-22 in the Championship.

Only Portsmouth (8) having played more games in the Football League play-offs without winning a single game.

Away Side No Dogs

Despite Sunderland's aforementioned poor home record and Luton's strength on the road, Mowbray's side are chalked up as 13/8 favourites to win the first game which looks mightily short and opens some opportunities in siding with the away team.

Luton have only lost four games all season in the league on the road, conceding 18 goals in those 23 games.

If any side is well set to stifle the attacking talent of Amad Diallo, Patrick Roberts, Jack Clarke and Joe Gelhardt, it's Rob Edwards' team.

These play-off games can often be cagey, especially in front of a huge Stadium of Light crowd who haven't seen too many wins this season, so the 19/20 about Luton in the draw no bet market gives is a huge value play if this one goes by the form book.